Interesting.... A believable doomsday theory?

[Shockwave]

Makes for a good, if pessemistic, read.
Text

And actually is fairly believable. Eventually we WILL run out of oil. Only question is when......

 

[Lonyo]

Alcohol -> polymers & fuel.

 

[Modeps]

No use worrying about it now.

 

[farmercal]

Hybrids are being developed as we speak and boast an incredible 50-70 MPG. They are also working on the Hydrogen powered cars for future production when they get the costs down. If we keep moving in the right direction and with proper technology we develop a practical electric vehicle, the necessity of oil will decline dramatically. I fully believe that we will overcome our dependency on oil and move in the right direction. Besides let's say oil runs out tomorrow...we will figure a way around it, we always do.

 

[Eli]

Originally posted by: farmercal
Hybrids are being developed as we speak and boast an incredible 50-70 MPG. They are also working on the Hydrogen powered cars for future production when they get the costs down. If we keep moving in the right direction and with proper technology we develop a practical electric vehicle, the necessity of oil will decline dramatically. I fully believe that we will overcome our dependency on oil and move in the right direction. Besides let's say oil runs out tomorrow...we will figure a way around it, we always do.

Unfortunately, it is human nature to only fully embrace something new when it either benefits them greatly, or the issue is so pressing we can't help it.

If oil ran out tomorrow, you have absolutely no idea the catastrophy that would result. Think about it. The world would stop. Food would become insanely expensive, because it would cost a lot to truck it around. Many wouldn't be able to get to work. It would be insane. :Q


Even if we had an oil crisis like in the 70s, it would be a huge disaster.

This issue is very, very, very pressing. I cannot add enough "verys". We are using MUCH more oil than we are finding. We hit our peak in discovery a decade ago.

Some models say 10 years, some say 50. The ones in the ~40 year range predict that we will find reserves almost equal in size to the reserves believed to be in the Middle East currently. Most experts seem to believe that is highly unlikely. Further, they make these predictions using the usage figures of today. That is unrealistic. We aren't going to be using the same ammount of oil in 5 years, let alone 15.

Regardless, we will run out of oil in my lifetime. I am 22.

I'm not concerned. I'm just along for the ride, I guess. I do agree that we will figure something out, but unless we get smart.. there will be some chaos thrown in there. Also, I do not think it is going to be like shutting off the tap. That isn't the way it works. I am sure oil technology will advance, and we will be able to wring every last drop out of all the reserves we have, and it will become economical to drill smaller reserves. But that will just result in the price of fuel being very expensive.

I predict the virtual demise of the sub-20MPG automobile sometime within the next 20 years. I realize that is a big statement. We will see.

Edit:

Reading the article now..

Also, as MacBaine says.. fuel is only a fraction of the things we get from crude oil. The reduction in the supply of oil will make nearly everything go up in price, because almost everything requires energy in some form to produce and market.

 

[MacBaine]

Originally posted by: farmercal
Hybrids are being developed as we speak and boast an incredible 50-70 MPG. They are also working on the Hydrogen powered cars for future production when they get the costs down. If we keep moving in the right direction and with proper technology we develop a practical electric vehicle, the necessity of oil will decline dramatically. I fully believe that we will overcome our dependency on oil and move in the right direction. Besides let's say oil runs out tomorrow...we will figure a way around it, we always do.

What about plastics and other oil based products? Fuel is far from the only thing we get from oil.

 

[SagaLore]

Easy solution.

Tax incentives for ehtanol/electric hybrid cars. Tax incentives for natural gas appliances/heating. Tax incentives for solar cell purchases. Grant money to natural gas companies. Grant money to solar cell manufacturers.

We already have vegetable oil alternatives to diesel, so as far as mass transit is concerned I think we're okay. We just need to push harder towards non-oil energy/transporation. If anything, the push will actually be a boom to the economy.

 

[SagaLore]

Originally posted by: Eli

Also, as MacBaine says.. fuel is only a fraction of the things we get from crude oil. The reduction in the supply of oil will make nearly everything go up in price, because almost everything requires energy in some form to produce and market.

Now that you say that... aren't all of our plastics derived from oil?

 

[MacBaine]

Originally posted by: SagaLore
Easy solution.

Tax incentives for ehtanol/electric hybrid cars. Tax incentives for natural gas appliances/heating. Tax incentives for solar cell purchases. Grant money to natural gas companies. Grant money to solar cell manufacturers.

We already have vegetable oil alternatives to diesel, so as far as mass transit is concerned I think we're okay. We just need to push harder towards non-oil energy/transporation. If anything, the push will actually be a boom to the economy.

There's still a lot of money to be made on oil, and as the supply dwindles, prices rise, and they'll make even more money. Dependence is good for business, especially when you have a virtual monopoly.

 

[Eli]

Originally posted by: SagaLore
Easy solution.

Tax incentives for ehtanol/electric hybrid cars. Tax incentives for natural gas appliances/heating. Tax incentives for solar cell purchases. Grant money to natural gas companies. Grant money to solar cell manufacturers.

We already have vegetable oil alternatives to diesel, so as far as mass transit is concerned I think we're okay. We just need to push harder towards non-oil energy/transporation. If anything, the push will actually be a boom to the economy.

The problem is that oil is the most "free" form of energy we have.

What I mean by that is.. it does indeed take energy to get oil. But we get much more out of it than we expend.

With things like alcohol, that isn't the case. There have been advances in distillation technology... I do believe that alcohol production is above 100% efficiency now. But that isn't enough.

You also have to take into account that it takes massive ammounts of land to grow the produce needed to make alcohol. I have read that we could cover the entire midwest in corn for alcohol production, and we still wouldn't be able to produce enough alcohol to satisfy our demand.

Energy is a funny thing. We're going to need some major advances in technology to pull us out of this one. Solar cells are a viable alternative, if we can get their efficiency up to say.... 98%?

 

[Pliablemoose]

This will happen much more slowly than you expect, and the supply demand curve will kick in to soften the blow.

The price will go higher, and we'll spend more for alternate forms of energy, amking it more profitable to pump the less productive oil from the ground.

Also, there are massive oil reserves that are untapped as it's not economically viable/politically correct to produce oil from them @ the current price per bbl of oil, and that's not even looking @ shale, etc.

People have been claiming the doomsday scenario for our oil based economy for decades.

 

[MacBaine]

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
This will happen much more slowly than you expect, and the supply demand curve will kick in to soften the blow.

The price will go higher, and we'll spend more for alternate forms of energy, amking it more profitable to pump the less productive oil from the ground.

Also, there are massive oil reserves that are untapped as it's not economically viable/politically correct to produce oil from them @ the current price per bbl of oil, and that's not even looking @ shale, etc.

People have been claiming the doomsday scenario for our oil based economy for decades.

Yet in all this time since people started claiming it, the progress we've made on alternate fuel source research has been miniscule.

 

[Eli]

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
This will happen much more slowly than you expect, and the supply demand curve will kick in to soften the blow.

The price will go higher, and we'll spend more for alternate forms of energy, amking it more profitable to pump the less productive oil from the ground.

Also, there are massive oil reserves that are untapped as it's not economically viable/politically correct to produce oil from them @ the current price per bbl of oil, and that's not even looking @ shale, etc.

People have been claiming the doomsday scenario for our oil based economy for decades.

I partly agree, but I do think the changes required are going to need be more rapid than most people expect. That will cause confusion and chaos, not to mention general unhappyness when gasoline and product prices continue to rise. The experts do take that into account. There are some models that predict we will have enough oil for the next 100 years if we start using coal and shale. Apparently many think they are unrealistic. And, barring advances in technology, the resultant fuel will be quite expensive.

It will never be a dollar a gallon again like it was a few years ago, that's for sure.

It will be interesting to see how the government and particularly the public handle it, though.

Hmmm..... You all remember that startup that was able to turn anything carbon based into oil? It was pretty exciting. I wonder if they're licking their lips, just waiting for oil prices to rise above their price point?

 

[Eli]

Wow, that article paints it REALLY, REALLY bad.

I am not sure if it will be that bad... I hope not.. :Q

/prepares Emergency Homesteading Supplies

lol

In January 2004, shares of major oil companies fell after Royal Dutch/Shell Group shocked investors by slashing its "proven" reserves 20 percent,

:Q

Their sources are indeed quite credible.. I think this isn't being talked about in the mainstream news because it will just induce panic.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Originally posted by: MacBaine

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
This will happen much more slowly than you expect, and the supply demand curve will kick in to soften the blow.

The price will go higher, and we'll spend more for alternate forms of energy, amking it more profitable to pump the less productive oil from the ground.

Also, there are massive oil reserves that are untapped as it's not economically viable/politically correct to produce oil from them @ the current price per bbl of oil, and that's not even looking @ shale, etc.

People have been claiming the doomsday scenario for our oil based economy for decades.

Yet in all this time since people started claiming it, the progress we've made on alternate fuel source research has been miniscule.

Agreed, the existing energy suppliers have carefully kept the price of oil @ a point where it's not cost effective to develop alt energy resources. There is a definite conspiracy, but it's right out in the open.

Don't know about where you-all live, but hasn't it always seemed a little odd that different gas stations prices vary by pennies/gallon?

The energy corporations have also taken the extra time they've gotten to position themselves so they'll control much of the new technology too.

So basically, we'll be paying $3/galon for gasoline when the hybrids come to market, and ~$5 when fuel cell powered vehicles come out, by then BP Amoco, Shell, ect will have the infrastructure for delivery of hydrogen derived from petrolium products and we'll pay ~$10 gallon...

And so it goes.

(BTW, I own 2 diesel vehicles and bought a F/S pickup with a V6 in it, I do what I can within reason, but you have to live in the real world)

Wanna give your kids a head start in life: here's some eco sensitive educational toys: utoypia

I may be int he market for a used Prius in the next year or so: AFVMarket.com

 

[MercenaryForHire]

E. Blackouts
The rolling blackouts experienced in California during Fall of 2000, the massive East Coast blackout of August 2003 and the various other massive blackouts that occurred throughout the world during late Summer of 2003 are simply a sign of things to come.

That blackout was caused by some dumbass not cutting the trees in Ohio, which set off the chain reaction.

Credibility --

- M4H

 

[Eli]

Originally posted by: MercenaryForHire

E. Blackouts
The rolling blackouts experienced in California during Fall of 2000, the massive East Coast blackout of August 2003 and the various other massive blackouts that occurred throughout the world during late Summer of 2003 are simply a sign of things to come.

That blackout was caused by some dumbass not cutting the trees in Ohio, which set off the chain reaction.

Credibility --

- M4H

Heh. Yeah. I noticed that too. Amongst a few other things.

But the overall sentiment of the "article" is quite alarming.

 

[ShotgunSteven]

Originally posted by: Eli
Wow, that article paints it REALLY, REALLY bad.

I am not sure if it will be that bad... I hope not.. :Q

/prepares Emergency Homesteading Supplies

lol

In January 2004, shares of major oil companies fell after Royal Dutch/Shell Group shocked investors by slashing its "proven" reserves 20 percent,

:Q

Their sources are indeed quite credible.. I think this isn't being talked about in the mainstream news because it will just induce panic.

I heard something the other day about how OPEC nations were exporting oil based on the size of their reserves, so were cooking the books to make it appear as if their reserves were bigger, so they could export more.

 

[SagaLore]

Originally posted by: Eli

Originally posted by: SagaLore
Easy solution.

Tax incentives for ehtanol/electric hybrid cars. Tax incentives for natural gas appliances/heating. Tax incentives for solar cell purchases. Grant money to natural gas companies. Grant money to solar cell manufacturers.

We already have vegetable oil alternatives to diesel, so as far as mass transit is concerned I think we're okay. We just need to push harder towards non-oil energy/transporation. If anything, the push will actually be a boom to the economy.

The problem is that oil is the most "free" form of energy we have.

What I mean by that is.. it does indeed take energy to get oil. But we get much more out of it than we expend.

With things like alcohol, that isn't the case. There have been advances in distillation technology... I do believe that alcohol production is above 100% efficiency now. But that isn't enough.

You also have to take into account that it takes massive ammounts of land to grow the produce needed to make alcohol. I have read that we could cover the entire midwest in corn for alcohol production, and we still wouldn't be able to produce enough alcohol to satisfy our demand.

Energy is a funny thing. We're going to need some major advances in technology to pull us out of this one. Solar cells are a viable alternative, if we can get their efficiency up to say.... 98%?

The corn scenario doesn't stick. We're able to produce alcohol from cellulose now using microbes (as opposed to yeast fermentation)

biomass to ethanol

 

[rudder]

I look forward to life after the oil crash and hope it happens soon. I plan to pick up some cheap lear jets from Saudi Arabia.

 

[Aharami]

yes it is a good read.. but i think its a repost. remember reading about this site b4

 

[no0b]

We need more nuclear reactors.

 

[Kipper]

It's a good read. That's about it. Yes, we will run out oil. But will the world end? I highly doubt that.

Doomsday? LOL.

 

[Shockwave]

Originally posted by: MadCowDisease
It's a good read. That's about it. Yes, we will run out oil. But will the world end? I highly doubt that.

Doomsday? LOL.

Its easy to laugh at that which doesnt currently affect us isnt it

 

[Eli]

Originally posted by: Shockwave

Originally posted by: MadCowDisease
It's a good read. That's about it. Yes, we will run out oil. But will the world end? I highly doubt that.

Doomsday? LOL.

Its easy to laugh at that which doesnt currently affect us isnt it

Indeed.