Discussion Intel's past, present and future

[jpiniero]

To whom?

Private Equity? The US Government? Take it private and just let it rot away over time?

There was a time they could have split the Foundry and IPOed it... and take the suckers (read: "Investors") to the cleaners. You know the ones, who think Intel had/has a shot of being an actual third party Foundry at the leading edge.

That's the issue, losing the foundry without no one continuing it is the end of Intel

They could just go 100% TSMC. Or maybe fab at Samsung. Or do both.

 

[DZero]

Private Equity? The US Government?

There was a time they could have split the Foundry and IPOed it... and take the suckers (read: "Investors") to the cleaners. You know the ones, who think Intel had/has a shot of being an actual third party Foundry at the leading edge.



They could just go 100% TSMC. Or maybe fab at Samsung. Or do both.

The issue is the dependance of TSMC and if TSMC decides to stop supporting the US antics? That's the issue. Intel is the only thing the US has to have domestic chips and the rest... well are not that advanced.

 

[jpiniero]

The issue is the dependance of TSMC and if TSMC decides to stop supporting the US antics? That's the issue. Intel is the only thing the US has to have domestic chips and the rest... well are not that advanced.

It's better than killing the entire company.

 

[Thunder 57]

Talking about courts *cough cough*, there's no telling what may happen if the current politically motivated courts get involved.

The courts have been political for decades now. Whoever is in charge uses that to their advantage.

Private Equity? The US Government? Take it private and just let it rot away over time?

There was a time they could have split the Foundry and IPOed it... and take the suckers (read: "Investors") to the cleaners. You know the ones, who think Intel had/has a shot of being an actual third party Foundry at the leading edge.



They could just go 100% TSMC. Or maybe fab at Samsung. Or do both.

Private equity is the opposite of Midas. Everything it touches turns to ****.

Not a fan of the government option but it’s probably the least bad.

The issue is the dependance of TSMC and if TSMC decides to stop supporting the US antics? That's the issue. Intel is the only thing the US has to have domestic chips and the rest... well are not that advanced.

It’s in Taiwan’s best interest to support the US. Plenty of customers and of course their neighbor being who they are.

 

[DZero]

It's better than killing the entire company.

Isn't that just extending the agony instead of thinking on how to solve this issue once at all?

It’s in Taiwan’s best interest to support the US. Plenty of customers and of course their neighbor being who they are.

And that's the issue... makes me think... what if Rapidus (Japan) or Samsung (South Korea) manages to pull a decent processing manufacturing, not the best of course, but capable to compete against TSMC and what is left from Intel?

Don't forget if China manages to get a decent manufacturing process, able to finally not depend to the rest. USA needs something in house without depending, that's why Intel is there. They need to think to save Intel properly and those Trump movements are not helping at all.

 

[poke01]

i'm tired of this x86 will die BS.

None of the current ISAs (x86, ARM, RISC-V, Loongson, IBM Z) will die. Each are well established.

 

[gdansk]

It’s in Taiwan’s best interest to support the US. Plenty of customers and of course their neighbor being who they are.

And ignoring politics entirely TSMC is making good money aligning with... well... the majority of the chip ordering world.

 

[DZero]

i'm tired of this x86 will die BS.

None of the current ISAs (x86, ARM, RISC-V, Loongson, IBM Z) will die. Each are well established.

Wait, isn't IBM Z be Power PC?
Also don't forger that SPARC and MIPS existed and now see where are them.

 

[gdansk]

Wait, isn't IBM Z be Power PC?
Also don't forger that SPARC and MIPS existed and now see where are them.

No.

And remember this isn't discord. You can look around before replying.

 

[Joe NYC]

No AVX/AVX2/AVX-512 Intel created those. They have the license for these

AMD owns cross-license to all of those in perpetuity.
As Intel owns cross license to AMD64 in perpetuity.

Unless a party bankrupts or is taken over. Then it loses the cross-license.

 

[Joe NYC]

It's all moot because the x64 patents probably expired. If some entity acquired Intel intact or in part AMD has no reason to be unreasonable. At most demand a small one time fee if they think they can and resume cross licensing as normal. There are a few exceptions where fighting it by any means would be justified (e.g. Nvidia) but those seem unlikely.

Why should they care? AMD's roadmap is their roadmap with or without Intel's existence.

It's not patent, it is copyright. It does not expire. Only in like 70 years.

 

[Joe NYC]

There's a lot of Internet lawyers out there that have talked about this, but I don't think many people really know what would/could happen.

Intel was pressured into signing these cross-licenses, but Intel structured them that they would expire if AMD went BK or was taken over.

So in the mind of Intl management, they were giving up monopoly only for short time, until AMD inevitably would go under.

It was completely unexpected that the tables would turn, and the weapon that was designed to limit AMD (in its ownership, mergers, sale) is now limiting Intel.

 

[Joe NYC]

Talking about courts *cough cough*, there's no telling what may happen if the current politically motivated courts get involved.

Current? You must be kidding not familiar with the US domestic politics - which is not subject of this thread anyway.

 

[Joe NYC]

To whom? That's the issue, losing the foundry without no one continuing it is the end of Intel and x86 since AMD won't support for long considering how ARM and RISC-V are advancing. Specially ARM.

Why would not AMD support 60 billion market in which they would have monopoly and royalty free ownership to the instruction set?

Why would AMD jumped into the arms of Arm and become their hostage?

 

[gdansk]

It's not patent, it is copyright. It does not expire. Only in like 70 years.

They have used patent and microcode lawsuits for a reason. Even intel hasn't tried against Microsoft and Apple for emulation of their precious copyrighted ISA.

AMD stands to lose their duopoly if they try to enforce x64 copyright and lose. Not worth even considering because a loss would open up x64 to everyone not just Intel.

 

[johnsonwax]

Intel has shown that in all probability it isn't. And most likely no court is going to let them enforce a monopoly via dubious legal cases on mainly expired patents. It is a waste of money to try.

I think we're well past the 'regulation of markets' phase of this economy.

 

[gdansk]

I think we're well past the 'regulation of markets' phase of this economy.

No, I'm pretty sure the doom is overstated. ARM couldn't even stop Qualcomm and Nuvia. There's no way AMD with its far more nebulous claim of Intel using its IP could stop Intel and any buyer.

 

[Joe NYC]

They have used patent and microcode lawsuits for a reason. Even intel hasn't tried against Microsoft and Apple for emulation of their precious copyrighted ISA.

AMD stands to lose their duopoly if they try to enforce x64 copyright and lose. Not worth even considering because a loss would open up x64 to everyone not just Intel.

I think the most profitable direction would be for AMD, if it became the sole owner of x86 (in case of Intel bankruptcy or other interruption) would be to license x86 and charge license fees or royalties. Same as Arm.

 

[511]

It's not patent, it is copyright. It does not expire. Only in like 70 years.

70 years after the death of the person in which name it is registered

 

[Doug S]

Wait, isn't IBM Z be Power PC?
Also don't forger that SPARC and MIPS existed and now see where are them.

IBM Z is their mainframes, with an ISA that's been extended and extended and is still able to run code dating back to the 1960s. PowerPC is IBM POWER, used in their AIX servers. That traces its development back to the early 80s (the first true RISC)

ISAs that for the most part have a single company behind them are the ones that are dying / have died out. That ones that survive are ones with wide support or a purpose for existing. i.e. ARM, x86 for obvious reasons. RISC-V because it is the "free" alternative to ARM for the really cheap stuff. Loongson because it is a China developed ISA without any western control. IBM Z because mainframes are gonna outlive all of us. POWER won't last forever, but so long as customers keep buying enough AIX servers for IBM to stay in that business they'll keep selling them.

 

[marees]

Looks like Trump is trying to force a shot gun marriage between TSMC & Intel

So decouple the fabs & let it be acquired by TSMC ? (Samsung has its own struggles to pull this off?)

“Trump likes winners,” Bernstein analysts wrote Thursday, adding that they “suspect he does not find the failure that has permeated Intel in recent years all that attractive.” ​

​

Unlike some tech leaders, Tan hasn’t sought a personal connection with Trump to soften that view, the analysts added.​

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-clash-with-intels-ceo-isnt-just-politics-its-a-crucial-test-for-u-s-chip-making-586629fa?utm_source=chatgpt.com

 

[511]

Looks like Trump is trying to force a shot gun marriage between TSMC & Intel

So decouple the fabs & let it be acquired by TSMC ? (Samsung has its own struggles to pull this off?)

So basically he is forcing a Monopoly nice

 

[Joe NYC]

So basically he is forcing a Monopoly nice

Good reminder that this is the 3rd set of stories about some TSMC / Intel negotiations, and when asked (about the first 2 sets of stories), TSMC management said it never happened

 

[511]

Good reminder that this is the 3rd set of stories about some TSMC / Intel negotiations, and when asked (about the first 2 sets of stories), TSMC management said it never happened

Yeah but trump is well very smart so it seems possible coming out of his mouth to TSMC

 

[DrMrLordX]

Looks like Trump is trying to force a shot gun marriage between TSMC & Intel

Yes, pretty sure I already posted that in this thread or another one. Basically Trump wants TSMC to buy a 49% stake in Intel and use Intel to produce some of their products in the US. Which is weird, and TSMC doesn't want to do this at all. But Trump is going to tariff Taiwan to pressure the Taiwanese government into pushing TSMC into the deal.

And now that Trump has raised questions about LBT's fitness to run Intel, it creates the possibility of a plunge in market value for Intel which makes it easier for a buyer (like TSMC) to take a 49% stake in Intel.