Discussion Intel's past, present and future

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DavidC1

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Dec 29, 2023
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Otellini started the trend of not properly reinvesting money in the company, in particular near the end of his tenure. He could be blamed for not getting into smartphones/tablets, but it's difficult to say even with hindsight whether that would have worked well or not. I think the only 'smart' move in that respect would have been to shift toward a foundry model to service that market.
Missing Smartphones/Tablets is just a smaller picture.

The "spirit" of Moore's Law leads not only to faster computers, but primarily cheaper, smaller, and lower powered computers, which Intel has been resistant to transition to every single time.

-Value market? Didn't have one until Cyrix forced them
-Pentium M? Transmeta threat
-Core 2? AMD threat
-Atom? Mobile threat

Intel should have had cheaper chips out, they should have had smaller chips, and they should have had lower power chips, without the competition forcing them. Every engineer wants to do better than what they have done before. So why is an engineering based company not doing that?

Moore's Law FAVORS lower power too. You hear it every time, "20% better performance or 40% lower power".
BK is at fault for Intel's current state. He sold the board on a promise of capturing tablets and smartphones and basically gave away the chips for free to try and make it happen. It might have happened if they were willing to continue for long enough, but instead it was abandoned too soon to see any return on the investment. At that point he had no idea what else to do and hence started pumping the stock with buybacks. Couple that with his background in manufacturing management leading him to believe that he knew better than the engineers and you had the recipe for 10nm and beyond. He also setup Sapphire Rapids for failure with the decision to skimp on proper pre-silicon validation.
BK seemed to have done more than just pitch a failed strategy. From what they were talking about, he was pretty much sabotaging the company. He was in the news recently for having super low ratings from employees in the company he's at now.
Bob Swan was fine with letting BK's mismanagement continue to strangle Intel to death. After all, times were good and profits could be used to pump the stock price via buybacks. On the order of $13B a year of stock buybacks. Just think if even half that money had been reinvested in, ya know, manufacturing and R&D.
He didn't make it worse though. Many said Swan was brought into stabilize before Gelsinger could make it better. Swan is just a manager, continue to do what he was given.
Only problem being that he was spending on the fab side at a rate to make up for over a decade of neglect and the current financials couldn't support that. And again, he wasn't as aggressive at clearing out the middle management as he should have been... which was a problem because the culture of said middle management had become one of overpromise and underdeliver.
The reason that I can't get with him is I bet he based his strategies on the Covid lockdowns continuing. That's where all the increasing PC market projections relied on too. That's why he was so aggressive in spending. Because he likely believed it would continue. There's something that didn't materialize as he expected.
LBT is currently in the process of destroying what remains of Intel. His initial claims were right on, giving cause for optimism. But unfortunately his actions don't match up.
Yup.
 

DavidC1

Golden Member
Dec 29, 2023
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Yeah, you are right. He didn't destroy the company. He just destroyed a large portion of what was remaining of the company. You forgot how Intel share price got wiped out overnight under Pat?
Their stock price was peak during Brian Kraznich.

I'm guessing you are a big fan of him then?
 
Jul 27, 2020
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Their stock price was peak during Brian Kraznich.

I'm guessing you are a big fan of him then?
Yeah, compared to Pat, I guess I have to say I am. He was a moron who laid the foundation for Intel's ruin but at least he didn't let things get horribad. Pat, despite his technical acumen (i486 architect), neglected the technical side of Intel. He was too soft and too weak to be the CEO that Intel needed. Desperate times need desperate measures and Intel needed a CEO who could do impassioned triage. What LBT is doing now should have been done in the first 6 months of Pat's tenure. The alarm bells should've sounded wayyyy early in his ears. He should've felt indignant that AMD was beating them at their own game. Instead, he engaged in stupid verbal battles. A man of action does not need words. How many times have we seen Lisa Su shooting her mouth off?
 

adroc_thurston

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Jul 2, 2023
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How many times have we seen Lisa Su shooting her mouth off?
She loves saying "Leadership %stuff%" more than anyone else in the industry.
Fortunately, they actually have a product that does that.

Which brings us to the Intel problem: they can't execute.
Time and time again, CEO after CEO they've been struggling to keep foundry and IP roadmaps going.
 

Khato

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Jul 15, 2001
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What LBT is doing now should have been done in the first 6 months of Pat's tenure.
What exactly is LBT doing now that should have been done in the first 6 months of Pat's tenure? Massive layoffs of the engineers that actually do the work? Hiring more outside 'expert' management that'll magically fix things?
 

Khato

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Jul 15, 2001
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The reason that I can't get with him is I bet he based his strategies on the Covid lockdowns continuing. That's where all the increasing PC market projections relied on too. That's why he was so aggressive in spending. Because he likely believed it would continue. There's something that didn't materialize as he expected.
Definitely a fair assessment. My thought is that what didn't materialize as expected was 20A and 18A. Again, the middle management layers apparently have a habit of reporting that everything's on track to meet the deadline... until the deadline. Then it's next week... and then the week after... on and on and on. He expected the culture of Intel from before he left, instead he got the culture that BK had instilled.
 
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Jul 27, 2020
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What exactly is LBT doing now that should have been done in the first 6 months of Pat's tenure? Massive layoffs of the engineers that actually do the work? Hiring more outside 'expert' management that'll magically fix things?
He promoted some deserving people to technical leadership positions.

Also: https://www.bigdatawire.com/2025/04...n-to-engineering-innovation-in-major-address/

So he's going to actually engage customers and make them grade Intel's customer service and based on that, he will take some much needed hard decisions to get A's from them because he hates anything less than an A grade.

The organizational structure at Intel was horrible and that is what LBT is trying to fix. Engineers are losing their jobs left and right because many of them were hired unnecessarily. There are ex-Intel people saying that they saw people drinking coffee all day and having casual conversations and just making powerpoint slides. It was the best place to basically do nothing. Everyone that could build a team did so with many team members because bigger teams appeared to look better optics-wise than smaller teams. And guess what? It's the bigger teams that have problems co-ordinating with each other and collaborating productively.

EDIT: This is post #1234.

It's not a coincidence. Nothing is a coincidence.
 
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johnsonwax

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Jun 27, 2024
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In the current environment, Intel needs a CEO that can play politics. That's the only way to compete against TSMC and Samsung on the foundry side. Get that 100% tariff to apply to any silicon not manufactured in the US and suddenly Intel foundry makes sense. It's the only way to ever get leading edge silicon manufacturing to occur in the US.
How would such a tariff make sense? Everyone would move assembly out of the US, and there's not much here to start with. It's not like you can put 100% on anything with a semiconductor. You can't tariff your way out of this problem without creating 5 new problems. If the federal government wants an ITAR entity with that capacity, invoke the defense production act and find a way to lash the domestic fabless companies to Intel Foundry for a certain amount of production. We used to do things like that all the time before Mr Reagan said government wasn't allowed to interfere in markets, and Trump has thrown that completely out the window.
 
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marees

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Apr 28, 2024
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How would such a tariff make sense? Everyone would move assembly out of the US, and there's not much here to start with. It's not like you can put 100% on anything with a semiconductor. You can't tariff your way out of this problem without creating 5 new problems. If the federal government wants an ITAR entity with that capacity, invoke the defense production act and find a way to lash the domestic fabless companies to Intel Foundry for a certain amount of production. We used to do things like that all the time before Mr Reagan said government wasn't allowed to interfere in markets, and Trump has thrown that completely out the window.
Trump wants to be seen doing something but it doesn't look like he thinks thru the second & third order effects of his actions. Anyways his supporters get some theater / circus

I was very impressed with LBT. If LBT goes then the BoD should ask the US govt to nominate a new CeO (& who can get the govt to commit to the $$$)
 

marees

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Apr 28, 2024
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This doesn't read good

Almost at the start of his term, CEO Tan and Board Chairman Frank Yeary were split over whether to continue Intel’s semiconductor manufacturing and foundry business or to exit it.
Chairman Yeary had drafted a plan to spin off the loss-making foundry business and invite minority investments from Nvidia, Amazon, and others, effectively stepping away from the operation.
They also considered selling the semiconductor manufacturing business to Taiwan’s TSMC.
By contrast, CEO Tan argued that the foundry is essential to Intel’s success and necessary for the U.S. to secure an independent semiconductor supply chain without relying on foreign firms like TSMC or Samsung.
Tan also sought to raise new funds to acquire AI companies, but this too was blocked by the board.
Tan and his supporters viewed such acquisitions as an opportunity to catch up with competitors like Nvidia and AMD, but as the board deliberated, time passed—and according to insiders, those potential targets are now set to be acquired by other tech firms.

These insiders say CEO Tan feels his hands are tied by the board.

 

Doug S

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Feb 8, 2020
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In a way, it was Apple's fault. They went wayyyyy out of their way to be the best.

Oh no, the poor monopolist that has NEVER successfully competed in ANY market/product outside of their comfortable little x86/Windows bubble[*] was beaten by a consumer products company that designs chips on the side? It must be the fault of the consumer products company, even though they aren't even designing chips as a main focus and are kind enough not to sell them on the open market and directly compete with Intel. Couldn't possibly be the fault of their own execution, or the one company that competes directly with them who has been eating their lunch the last few years. Nope, gotta be the company that doesn't even consider Intel a competitor. People talk about Steve Jobs' reality distortion field, but you could have given him pointers on expanding his!

[*] failed every time they tried to do another architecture, i.e. i432, i860, IA64; failed at expanding into other markets, i.e. phone, tablet, embedded and foundry. I know I'm leaving out a bunch of other failures, this is not intended to be an exhaustive list.
 

511

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Jul 12, 2024
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[*] failed every time they tried to do another architecture, i.e. i432, i860, IA64; failed at expanding into other markets, i.e. phone, tablet, embedded and foundry. I know I'm leaving out a bunch of other failures, this is not intended to be an exhaustive list.
How can you miss the most important part they tried a good chunk of R&D in each but failed to take critical decision lmao and to think Andy Grove was the CEO of this company.
 

johnsonwax

Senior member
Jun 27, 2024
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Oh no, the poor monopolist that has NEVER successfully competed in ANY market/product outside of their comfortable little x86/Windows bubble[*] was beaten by a consumer products company that designs chips on the side? It must be the fault of the consumer products company, even though they aren't even designing chips as a main focus and are kind enough not to sell them on the open market and directly compete with Intel. Couldn't possibly be the fault of their own execution, or the one company that competes directly with them who has been eating their lunch the last few years. Nope, gotta be the company that doesn't even consider Intel a competitor. People talk about Steve Jobs' reality distortion field, but you could have given him pointers on expanding his!

[*] failed every time they tried to do another architecture, i.e. i432, i860, IA64; failed at expanding into other markets, i.e. phone, tablet, embedded and foundry. I know I'm leaving out a bunch of other failures, this is not intended to be an exhaustive list.
Don't forget Apple taking over their uncompetitive radio group and making a competitive radio.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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Trump wants to be seen doing something but it doesn't look like he thinks thru the second & third order effects of his actions. Anyways his supporters get some theater / circus
No. Trump wants TSMC to buy a 49% stake in Intel (or perhaps just IFS, not sure which, Trump probably hasn't thought that part through). Anyway he knows that if he can break confidence in the CEO, it'll weaken Intel and make a buyout cheaper/easier. Keep in mind that TSMC does not WANT to buy a 49% stake in Intel anything, but you know. Trump has his own ideas on how to save American semiconductor manufacturing. Anyway link for reference:

 

511

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Jul 12, 2024
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No. Trump wants TSMC to buy a 49% stake in Intel (or perhaps just IFS, not sure which, Trump probably hasn't thought that part through). Anyway he knows that if he can break confidence in the CEO, it'll weaken Intel and make a buyout cheaper/easier. Keep in mind that TSMC does not WANT to buy a 49% stake in Intel anything, but you know. Trump has his own ideas on how to save American semiconductor manufacturing. Anyway link for reference:

And neither does Intel wants it it's just a stupid idea they can't simply just give them a good $ Billion deal like Rapidus/Samsung/TSMC gets or force US companies to have some volume at Intel even though it's measly.
 
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coercitiv

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Jan 24, 2014
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So the problem is Frank yeary all along timelines matches he learnt from the worst and is a disease spreading since 2009 at Intel he should be kicked at this point lmao 🤣
Not only that, they're also preventing him from attempting a comeback in AI:
Intel had also been exploring a potential acquisition of an AI business, the people said. Proponents of the deal, including Tan, saw it as an opportunity for the company to catch up to rivals such as Nvidia and AMD, which are much further ahead in AI. But the board took its time deliberating the potential deal, and another publicly traded technology company appears poised to buy the target instead, the people said.
Tan feels his hands have been tied by the board to fix the company, the people said.

Apparently Tan did not play ball with the board, so he's getting the Pat Gelsinger treatment. Soon enough we'll find out a speck of dirt was detected on his suit while visiting IFS, so he must leave the company immediately for endangering a strategic sale :p

What puzzles me is why they brought LBT back in the first place, I guess there's still a faction on the board that wants to do business.
 

511

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Jul 12, 2024
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What puzzles me is why they brought LBT back in the first place, I guess there's still a faction on the board that wants to do business.
I guess those are the recent hires from ASML/MicroChip the old board needs to wiped clean Intel doesn't need financial expertise that much
 
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mikegg

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Jan 30, 2010
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I actually think Intel is better off split. Removes conflict of interest. Distinct focus on each business's own area. Easier for investors to invest.

For example, I would buy some stock in IFS but I DO NOT want to invest in Intel Products group. Intel's chip designs are awful. Both are awful. But at least IFS has the national security thing.