Question Intel's future after Pat Gelsinger

Page 47 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

511

Diamond Member
Jul 12, 2024
3,257
3,188
106
But if Intel falls then CPU prices will certainly go up, and market opportunity will appear to use cheaper nodes that likely satisfy a lot of customers (especially if the alternative is pricey).
well that is not happening soon they need one more debacle like 10nm to die
 

Schmide

Diamond Member
Mar 7, 2002
5,726
1,014
126
It isn't so much the x86 that Intel is responsible for, but for all the other things they do, which is way more important.

The support they give for the reference devices to be made on is seriously impressive. AMD barely does anything in that regard. They make CPUs and they make GPUs, that's about it. It eases developing new computers and form factors on Intel-based hardware(which includes AMD). They developed everything around their chips. The cornerstone for PC is Intel for this reason.

If Intel goes away tomorrow, all that will go to zero.

Myopic. Consoles, handhelds, olpc, embedded, etc. AMD offers long support sockets, not just desktop, that dwarf intels long term offering. Intel is losing money because their whole profit system was based on OEMs making a complete new system every iteration and never just upgrading components.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Tlh97 and Win2012R2

511

Diamond Member
Jul 12, 2024
3,257
3,188
106
Myopic. Consoles, handhelds, olpc, embedded, etc. AMD offers long support sockets, not just desktop, that dwarf intels long term offering. Intel is losing money because their whole profit system was based on OEMs making a complete new system every iteration and never just upgrading components.
in mobile both offers like 2 generation of sockets also for embedded Intel has way long support than whatever AMD gives what do you mean by olpc?
also for embedded compare these what will you pick.
Handheld and Desktop AMD is clear winner as of now
 

Schmide

Diamond Member
Mar 7, 2002
5,726
1,014
126
in mobile both offers like 2 generation of sockets also for embedded Intel has way long support than whatever AMD gives what do you mean by olpc?
also for embedded compare these what will you pick.
Handheld and Desktop AMD is clear winner as of now
Cough Cough? From that PDF

Intel does not commit or guarantee product availability or software support by way of road map guidance. Intel reserves the right to change road maps or discontinue products,
software, and software support services through standard EOL/PDN processes. Contact your Intel account rep for additional information.
From AMD's channel

AMD designs products and creates the supporting supply chain with the clear intent to support a minimum 15+ year lifecycle*, starting from first production release. AMD parts are used extensively in numerous applications that require a long operational lifetime, and therefore, AMD makes a strong commitment to product longevity. With this commitment, although the minimum lifecycle is 15 years, customers will see that the majority of families will be supported much longer. The longevity of AMD products is longer than ASSPs, ASICs, and other major FPGA suppliers.
edit:

The performance and power scalability afforded with AMD Ryzen™ Embedded 8000 Series processors
make them an ideal fit for industrial system OEMs expanding their AI support capabilities and product
portfolios across a range of performance, power and graphics-optimized options. Planned product
availability up to 10 years helps support long-term design lifecycles.

OLPC one laptop per child was one of AMD's geode integrations. Embedded geode lasted 20+ years.
 

511

Diamond Member
Jul 12, 2024
3,257
3,188
106
Cough Cough? From that PDF
Yes

OLPC one laptop per child was one of AMD's geode integrations. Embedded geode lasted 20+ years.
didn't knew that term
it says upto 10 years(same as Intel but intel has an added clause ) the 15 years was for FPGAs can't be compared :)

edit:
upto x years/% is usually <=x/% it doesn't guarantee x.
 
Last edited:

Win2012R2

Golden Member
Dec 5, 2024
1,022
1,025
96
well that is not happening soon they need one more debacle like 10nm to die
With 10nm they had 95%+ market share, now they are looking at going down to 50% any time now, if this has not happened already, and they still have Fab issues which will keep dragging them down.
 

511

Diamond Member
Jul 12, 2024
3,257
3,188
106
With 10nm they had 95%+ market share, now they are looking at going down to 50% any time now, if this has not happened already, and they still have Fab issues which will keep dragging them down.
many Fab issues are starting to get sorted now btw
 

511

Diamond Member
Jul 12, 2024
3,257
3,188
106
I looked at the age of people they are beyond retirement lol it's not a shakeup but a clickbait article
 

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
6,651
12,279
136
I looked at the age of people they are beyond retirement lol it's not a shakeup but a clickbait article

Ryan Russel is certainly not beyond retirement, he's like 54 years old, lol. Kaizad Mistry is younger than Lip Bu Tan and Pat Gelsinger. Gary Patton is the only one who you might say was beyond retirement but I don't know him or his current condition to say. I've worked with multiple people his age, or older, that were still plenty effective in the work place. The fact that all 3 are "retiring" at the same time tells you that they are being retired rather than retiring.
 

511

Diamond Member
Jul 12, 2024
3,257
3,188
106
Ryan Russel is certainly not beyond retirement, he's like 54 years old, lol. Kaizad Mistry is younger than Lip Bu Tan and Pat Gelsinger. Gary Patton is the only one who you might say was beyond retirement but I don't know him or his current condition to say. I've worked with multiple people his age, or older, that were still plenty effective in the work place. The fact that all 3 are "retiring" at the same time tells you that they are being retired rather than retiring.
Kaizad is still 60+ that's retirement age same for patton russel you can argue maybe they are the fall guys for foundry
 

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
6,651
12,279
136
Kaizad is still 60+ that's retirement age same for patton russel you can argue maybe they are the fall guys for foundry

Jim Keller was over 60 while working at Intel, I didn't hear anyone saying he was past retirement nor do I hear anyone saying Lip Bu Tan is either. Just because you are at an age that you can retire, doesn't mean you should or that you are "past retirement age". Lip Bu Tan is trying to remake the company according to his vision, that's it.
 

Gideon

Platinum Member
Nov 27, 2007
2,015
4,997
136

We recently reported on Intel's decision to abandon its pursuit of glass substrates in a bid to crack down on "blank checks" and ensure that investments are being paid off. For those unaware, Intel has a massive lead in glass substrates since it has been developing the technology for several years, coming ahead of competitors, based on what internal sources reported. Team Blue initially planned to integrate the technology into its packaging services by the end of 2025, whilst competitors were still figuring out the implementation.
Duan's shift to Samsung shows that Intel's "decades" of work towards a particular technology could very well be abandoned, and while this might benefit them in the short term, it could have serious impacts with time, especially since Intel has failed to remain competitive in any segment for now.
 

Kepler_L2

Senior member
Sep 6, 2020
923
3,779
136
It's really incredible how much Intel fumbled their technology lead. They had some of the most advanced R&D in many fields including AI, Ray Tracing, Glass Substrates, Fiber Optics... and just never managed to turn that leadership R&D into a leadership product.
 

Doug S

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2020
3,361
5,888
136
It's really incredible how much Intel fumbled their technology lead. They had some of the most advanced R&D in many fields including AI, Ray Tracing, Glass Substrates, Fiber Optics... and just never managed to turn that leadership R&D into a leadership product.

Most companies that gain a monopoly or near monopoly in one field fail miserably when they attempt to enter other fields.

Look at Microsoft. How many different products they did they and fail at (tablets multiple times, phones multiple times, search, the list goes on) and even where they didn't utterly fail like Xbox they didn't exactly achieve leadership let alone the type of monopoly they are used to having. Finally with cloud they found something else they were really good at, but they wasted countless billions on failed products and failed acquisitions.

Or how about Google? Their quasi monopoly in search spawned their advertising business which still to this day provides over 100% of their profit. Collectively everything else that's not advertising loses money, and the "Google graveyard" is littered with their many many failed products. Even things you'd think Google would be good at - how many different messaging/chat apps did they go through over the years before they decided to hand things back to the carriers by going with a long ignored SMS upgrade?

Monopoly profits can fund a lot of stuff, but colors your perceptions of what "success" is so maybe you try to be too ambitious. Or maybe you have to be, because a business line some companies would kill for is "hurting our margins" and gets cut when the beancounters see it will never provide monopoly sized profits.
 

johnsonwax

Senior member
Jun 27, 2024
259
419
96
It's really incredible how much Intel fumbled their technology lead. They had some of the most advanced R&D in many fields including AI, Ray Tracing, Glass Substrates, Fiber Optics... and just never managed to turn that leadership R&D into a leadership product.
So, one of the problems I seen in most of the discussions is that everyone is trying to tell a technology story (because you find that interesting, and it is) when you need to learn to tell an economic story. One of the reasons why Apple is quite successful here is that they are not a technology company. They are a go-to-market company. They identify a customer need, they identify how they can solve it, how they will market that solution, then they invent the technology needed to implement that solution and then they sell it. They identify the potential demand, then they create that demand, then they satisfy that demand.

Intel had no go-to-market strategy for the AI or the ray tracing or the fiber optics. You look at an Intel tech like Thunderbolt, Apple carried that. It would have died in the lab if Apple didn't commit to putting it in products to solve problems their market was looking at. Between Intel and their customers are a whole field of players that Intel has no control over. Intel didn't want to make PCs, so Thunderbolt largely withered in the PC space. Same goes for fiber optics and ray tracing and AI even though those are big categories, Intel couldn't get into the category in an economically meaningful way.

I think one of the problems Intel always had was that they were aspirationally modeling off of companies like the old HP that were technological pioneers in the valley. But HP made things. I spent years working with a 1970s HP-1000, and HP oscilloscopes and all kinds of stuff. In the old days they didn't avoid the messy step of turning it into a product, but Intel was sort of founded with the idea of 'what if we just skipped that messy part'. And yeah, it works, but you lose a LOT of control in the goal of being a technology leader because you have no ability to put it in a customer's hands and give them a competitive advantage or whatever so that a demand market can form around the tech. Sure, a lot of it comes because of alignments in the interests of the OEMs and Intel, but when that space runs toward price competition because the OEMs don't have different versions of Windows to ship and the Intel/AMD SKU price sheet is sufficiently well calibrated that there's no real competitive benefit other than cost, then nobody is really championing your tech because their success is coming from saving pennies, not solving problems and that pioneering tech is designed to solve problems. Meanwhile Apple is over there refusing against all analyst insistence on competing on price and focusing on solving problems and building up tech behind that task, and so Thunderbolt gets developed and Apple runs with it because it's useful and the PC world is still coloring their USB ports because they don't want to pay the $0.03 to make them all good ones. There's no room for Thunderbolt in that space and Intel is trapped to the whims of the OEMs. The OEMs don't want Thunderbolt, they want a USB-2 to be marginally cheaper, and Intel has no room to make the case for Thunderbolt - so Apple does it.

You can argue that Intel should have become more of a product company like HP or Apple, but I don't think they actually had the capacity to do that for the same reason that Google so routinely fails on the same front - that's just not how they're wired, and we've just watched Intel try and wire itself for 10 years, unsuccessfully. It's hard. Most companies go bankrupt before they get there. Apple themselves very nearly did as well.

The only thing I think Intel fumbled was investing in that stuff in the first place when they had insufficient control over whether they could turn it into a product (I'd make an exception for glass substrate - that was much more in their wheelhouse). I think they needed to pick a lane - either act like AMD and build only to customer demand, or be innovative and have a product division.

"People think focus means saying yes to the thing you've got to focus on. But that's not what it means at all. It means saying no to the hundred other good ideas that there are. You have to pick carefully. I'm actually as proud of the things we haven't done as the things I have done. Innovation is saying no to 1,000 things."

Jobs isn't saying that the idea they reject isn't good - he's admitting that it is. But it's not enough that out there might be a customer who wants it - he's saying "It's not useful to us if we can't walk it from the lab into a customers hands and collect that payment." And Intel wasn't able to do that and I'm willing to bet that nobody could put down a business model for how Intel was going to put ray tracing into people's hands and collect money for it.
 

511

Diamond Member
Jul 12, 2024
3,257
3,188
106
It's really incredible how much Intel fumbled their technology lead. They had some of the most advanced R&D in many fields including AI, Ray Tracing, Glass Substrates, Fiber Optics... and just never managed to turn that leadership R&D into a leadership product.
we should make a movie on it
 
  • Like
Reactions: Chicken76

coercitiv

Diamond Member
Jan 24, 2014
7,248
17,072
136
So, one of the problems I seen in most of the discussions is that everyone is trying to tell a technology story (because you find that interesting, and it is) when you need to learn to tell an economic story.
We do tell an economic story, you're just not accustomed to read it. Companies like Intel identify the customer need at a different level, but the process is very much still there. Nvidia is one of the most successful companies in the world right now, and most of their profits come from products that are part of other people's "messy step". They correctly identified a massive need and built technology to sell for that need.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 511

johnsonwax

Senior member
Jun 27, 2024
259
419
96
We do tell an economic story, you're just not accustomed to read it. Companies like Intel identify the customer need at a different level, but the process is very much still there. Nvidia is one of the most successful companies in the world right now, and most of their profits come from products that are part of other people's "messy step". They correctly identified a massive need and built technology to sell for that need.
No, those are fine, but there are all of these 'why did this go wrong, it was so great' - and if you tell the economic story it usually becomes pretty apparent why it went wrong. The successful stuff doesn't really need the story - it's axiomatic.

It will be interesting to see if Nivida's economic story is sustainable given that none of the other people's messy steps are making any money.