Intel updates roadmap with 2.8GHz and 3.0GHz P4

[KenAF]

Inquirer reports on updated Intel processor roadmap

One quote: According to the latest Intel roadmaps we've seen, Intel has added clock speeds of greater than 3GHz, and will also release desktop Pentium 4s at speeds of 2.80GHz, 2.66GHz, and 2.60GHz. But it won't be until early next year that the 3GHz Pentium 4 arrives - the fastest stable clock speed this year will be 2.80GHz in the fourth quarter.

They also have another article on upcoming P4 pricing. A select quote:

Between mid April and the end of May, Intel will introduce a 2.4GHz processor at $562, and a 2.26GHz Pentium at $508. At the end of May, the price of the 2.26GHz chip will drop to $241 and that will be the price of the 2.20AGHz chip then. The 2GHz Pentium 4 (.18 micron), will drop to $193, as will the 1.9GHz P4, while the 1.8GHz chip will cost $163 and the 1.7GHz chip $143. The 1.6A looks like it will fall to around $120.

Of course these are official prices; processors are sold as commodities on the open world market, so actual prices will be a bit lower (as we see on Pricewatch). As an example, the official Intel price on the 2.2A is $562, but it actually sells for $510 on Pricewatch. Summary:

April 29
=====
2.40GHz P4 ($562)
2.26GHz P4 ($508)
2.20GHz P4 ($508)

May 27
=====
2.40GHz P4 ($562)
2.26GHz P4 ($241)
2.20GHz P4 ($241)
2.0GHz P4 ($193)
1.80GHz P4 (?)
1.60GHz P4 (?)

July 29
=====
2.53GHz P4 ($ ?)
2.50GHz P4 ($ ?)
2.40GHz P4 ($ ?)
2.26GHz P4 ($ ?)
2.0GHz P4 ($ ?)
1.80GHz P4 ($ ?)
1.60GHz P4 ($ ?)

September 27 / October 28
=====
2..80GHz P4 ($ ?)
2.66GHz P4 ($ ?)
2.60GHz P4 ($ ?)
2.40GHz P4 ($ ?)
2.26GHz P4 ($ ?)
2.0GHz P4 ($ ?)
1.80GHz P4 ($ ?)
1.60GHz P4 ($ ?)

January 6, 2003
=====
3.0GHz P4 ($ ?)
2.80GHz P4 ($ ?)
2.66GHz P4 ($ ?)
2.60GHz P4 ($ ?)
2.40GHz P4 ($ ?)
2.26GHz P4 ($ ?)
2.0GHz P4 ($ ?)
1.80GHz P4 ($ ?)
1.60GHz P4 ($ ?)

Comments?

 

[tornadobox]

i'm assuming the push to the 533MHz FSB will just be 133x4...so that shouldn't be a problem for most of the s478 P4 boards out there...but what about the RAM bandwidth discrepancy that will occur? will the current boards be able to boost RAM FSB as well or will we all need (those who have P4 s478 boards now and want the 533FSB) to get new motherboards?

 

[Wolfsraider]

and who says upgrading cant be sweet?

the price of the 2.26GHz chip will drop to $241

Between mid April and the end of May, Intel will introduce a 2.4GHz processor at $562, OH YEA



But it won't be until early next year that the 3GHz Pentium 4 arrives



:Q

 

[Amused]

At what model will the change to 533 FSB occur?

If I could guess, I bet it's when they start breaking up the even numbers.

 

[AGodspeed]

Well, that's a very interesting roadmap. As I had suspected, the 3GHz P4 will debut next year. I wouldn't be surprised if the 2.8GHz P4 were only available in limited quantities at the end of this year.

Also, it looks like they delayed their roadmap a bit. The 2.26 and 2.4GHz P4's were supposed to come out in early April. Now it's more like May. Although that's not too much of a delay. Btw, when's the 533MHz FSB coming? Which P4 speed will it debut at?

 

[Athlon4all]

<< Btw, when's the 533MHz FSB coming? >>

From the Roadmap article:

<< Intel will push its 533MHz front side bus (FSB) during the second quarter, with the first Pentium 4s utilising this additional feature launching at 2.26GHz and 2.40GHz. >>

So, the next speed bump in Q2 will feature 533fsb

<< At what model will the change to 533 FSB occur? >>

See above

Interesting roadmap. Truthfully, I'm not that worried about AMD keeping up. Thuroghbred should hit speeds that will compete with the 3.0GHz P4, plus prolly by the time 3GHz comes out, ClawHammer will have hit the streets so I think AMD can easily keep up.

<< but what about the RAM bandwidth discrepancy that will occur? >>

It should be a problem because boards support PC1600 DDR right? And in order for PC1600 to be supported, there would need to be an option to have the fsb in sync with the fsb, and my point is that on current 845-D boards, you will just set the fsb/mem clock to be in sync then increase the fsb to 133. For RDRAM, just lower the RDRAM ratio to 3x rather than 4x (or get PC1066 RDRAM)

Hmmmm, I was just thinking about something else. These articles say that the P4 Celeron will be released next quarter, and I think assuming these chips are equal in performance to the Williamette (they should be) then AMD may need to rush Appolasa to the market because, THG has shown a Duron 1.3GHz (On 8KHA+) getting beat in some things rather badly by a Williamette clocked 1.7GHz. Here's some comparisions from Tom's Article:

Q3A @ 640x480: P4 1.7GHz is ahead the Duron by 25%
Q3A Demo001 @ 1024x768: P4 1.7GHz is ahead the Duron by 18%
3DMark 2000 @ 1024x768: P4 1.7 ahead by 2%
3DMark 2001 @ 1024x768: P4 1.7 ahead by 10%
Lame MP3: P4 1.7 ahead by 10%
SysMark2001: P4 1.7 ahead by 10%

Now that is not too good. According to the AMD roadmap from the Inquirer(see here, while we will see a 1.4GHz Duron at the same time as the 1.7GHz P4 Celeron, the Duron will still lose most likely due to the 200fsb, and AMD may need to step up the release of Appaloosa.

I guess, I am not too expecting the 1.4GHz Morgan to do much better because it is clear to me if you look at the results from that article, the Athlon XP 1500+ did significantly better (due to the 266fsb). We'll see, but I think AMD is in for quite a battle on the low end bettween the Williamette-128 and Morgan/Appaloosa. I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens.

 

[KenAF]

More food for thought...

Using stock cooling (the standard Intel heatsink), the 1.6A has no trouble overclocking at 2200-2400MHz, the 1.8A at 2400+MHz, the 2.0A at 2600MHz, and the 2.2A at 2600-3000MHz...what will the overclock be on a 2.4GHz or 2.53GHz P4?

Also, is it just me, or does Intel seem to be going straight for AMD's jugular? AMD plans to unveil the "Palomino" Athlon XP 2200+ at the same time Intel releases the P4 2.26 and P4 2.4. In May, Intel will drop the 2.26 down to $241 ($200-$220 pricewatch.com). That means AMD will have to price its most expensive processor at $220 or less. With the Athlon XP 2200+ at <$220, does that mean we will get a XP 2000+ at $150?

Another price war sounds good to me...

 

[KenAF]

AGodSpeed,

<< Well, that's a very interesting roadmap. As I had suspected, the 3GHz P4 will debut next year. I wouldn't be surprised if the 2.8GHz P4 were only available in limited quantities at the end of this year. >>

If you go back through the years, you'll find that Intel has basically stuck to a regular timetable with its processor releases. They always ship processors at the start of the 4Q to ensure adequate supply and distribution for the Christmas retail season. I did a quick search, and can't find any sort of processor announcement from them after October 30.

<< Also, it looks like they delayed their roadmap a bit. The 2.26 and 2.4GHz P4's were supposed to come out in early April. Now it's more like May. Although that's not too much of a delay. Btw, when's the 533MHz FSB coming? Which P4 speed will it debut at? >>

Well, originally, 533FSB was supposed to debut in late April with the 2.26 and the 2.40, as Intel has followed a January->April->July->October release schedule over the past few years, save for one or two instances where they responded to AMD. However, Intel then told investors in a conference call last month that its 533FSB chipsets (845E and 850E) would ship in quantity towards the the end of the 1Q. Various sites then obtained an Abit roadmap that showed March 28 for the release of its 533FSB mainboards. And these mainboards aren't of much use/advantage for the non-overclocker without 533FSB processors...We'll just have to see how it pans out.

The 845E and 850E 533FSB chipsets will also be the first to use Intel's new ICH4; they'll reportedly support AGP8x, USB2.0, and SerialATA.

 

[AGodspeed]

Hmmmm, I was just thinking about something else. These articles say that the P4 Celeron will be released next quarter, and I think assuming these chips are equal in performance to the Williamette (they should be) then AMD may need to rush Appolasa to the market because, THG has shown a Duron 1.3GHz (On 8KHA+) getting beat in some things rather badly by a Williamette clocked 1.7GHz.

Not only will the P4 Celerons use the old .18u Willamette core instead of the new .13u Northwood core, they will have half the L2 cache of the regular Willamettes (128K instead of 256K). IMO, this will hamper performance quite a bit. Once the reviews start pouring in we'll see...

 

[AGodspeed]

<< Also, is it just me, or does Intel seem to be going straight for AMD's jugular? AMD plans to unveil the "Palomino" Athlon XP 2200+ at the same time Intel releases the P4 2.26 and P4 2.4. In May, Intel will drop the 2.26 down to $241 ($200-$220 pricewatch.com). That means AMD will have to price its most expensive processor at $220 or less. With the Athlon XP 2200+ at <$220, does that mean we will get a XP 2000+ at $150?

Another price war sounds good to me... >>



Actually, AMD has a .18u 2200+ scheduled for this quarter. AMD will likely release the .18u 2200+ during the month of March or April. According to AMD themselves, .13u Athlons will start shipping this quarter (meaning in March sometime). It's very possible that AMD could have accetable quantities of 2400+ Thoroughbreds available by the time 2.4GHz 533MHz FSB P4's start arriving in late April/early May; if AMD actually ships the Thorougbreds this quarter that is. Btw, I wouldn't be surprised if the .18u 2200+ were launched during CeBIT (March 13-20). In fact, the 2400+ Thoroughbred might even be launched at CeBIT.

Therefore, AMD would have a model rating that is finally equal to Intel's clock speed (2400+ --> 2.4GHz).

 

[KenAF]

More info from digitimes.com today...it does appear that Intel's 533FSB chipsets and processors were delayed. See below:

http://www.digitimes.com/NewsShow/Article.asp?datePublish=2002/02/06&pages=09&seq=72

According to the article, the release of the 533FSB chipsets and processors (2.26/2.4) was delayed from April to the week of May 20. It also says the company will enact price cuts a few days later on May 26, with price of its 2.26GHz processor dropping by over 50% from US$503 to US$241. I suppose Intel could still follow through and release the 100x4=400FSB version of the 2.4 in April, with the 533FSB versions released along with the chipsets in May.

The Inquirer also has a few comments on this development right here. According to the article, "If these reports are correct, this is a very sudden shift by Intel. Its 2002 week four roadmaps, which we recently caught a glimpse of, show these chips on its price list from the 1st of April, with the 845G costing $46, the 845E $41, the 845 $37 and the 845GL $35."

I expect that AMD will stick to its late March or April timeframe for the Palomino 2200+. Of course, as you know, I do disagree with your ETA on the 2400+ Thoroughbreds. At the recent platform conference, AMD said it would follow its strategy with Palomino, releasing the Thoroughbreds to the mobile market first.