Intel Roadmap '09~'10 Leaked

[lopri]

TechReport reports a Japanese site hosting a bevy of charts showing Intel's recent desktop/mobile roadmaps.

Massive Intel mobile, desktop roadmaps massively leaked

Originally posted by: TechReport

At the heart of the scheme is a BMW-esque trio of Core i3, Core i5, and Core i7 models. The Core i7 name will encompass current Bloomfield and future Lynnfield and Gulftown processors with all of their cores and capabilities enabled, including Hyper-Threading (dual threads per core) and Turbo Boost. This name spans two socket types, today's LGA1366 and the upcoming LGA1156.

The original page can be found below.

http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/...i/20090716_302169.html

It is curious that Intel forecasts its 32nm products will occupy nearly 20% of its inventory, if this slide is to be believed. Is it realistic?

 

[aigomorla]

hate to pop your bubble lopri...

but thats a old roadmap. :X

im sure dmens will pop in and say the same thing.

Im fairly sure intel has a more recient one out thats not leaked yet. Also has server chip information.

Thats why i say its a old one. Its missing all the W series.

W3520 W3540 W3570 W3580.

 

[ilkhan]

yeah they've been around a while.

 

[Idontcare]

Goto-san regularly updates and maintains his "roadmaps" with the latest infos as he collects them from his sources.

Its not an actual roadmap of the sort that people (techreport) like to make them out to be.

FWIW the direct link to Goto-san's weekly column is http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/column/kaigai/, about every two weeks he updates the cpu roadmaps and the gpu roadmaps. The graphics are pretty cool, not sure how he finds the time to make them all the time.

 

[lopri]

 

[aigomorla]

lol i like my sources better.

im sure u do too idc.

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: lopri

Don't be, just because the five or six more vocal/active forum members here (including myself) have seen this before doesn't mean that there aren't lurkers and other forum members who have not seen it otherwise. (your thread has nearly 300 views, that says something)

I hope our posts didn't stifle discussion of the contents of the links in the OP. I think the info in Goto-san's reports is great, and yes it can lack some of the most recent up to the minute stuff but there is some food for thought contained in his articles.

Originally posted by: lopri
It is curious that Intel forecasts its 32nm products will occupy nearly 20% of its inventory, if this slide is to be believed. Is it realistic?

You know I thought the same thing when I looked at that slide too, and it is a leaked Intel slide unlike the roadmap stuff which is a compilation of leaked roadmap stuff, but if you look at the comparable quarter for 45nm ramp - Q4/07 - we see Intel ramped 45nm much faster than they plan to ramp 32nm.

So yes 20% seems like a lot of clarkdales hitting the markets but at the same time apparently it won't be nearly as much as the initial penryn release entailed.

edit: BTW did you catch the lingering 90nm component to that chart? That's itanium (montecito), the once and forever king. Intel has yet to release their 65nm itanium chip (tukwilla). Kinda sad to see just how paltry the CPU value/volume of itanium represents to Intel (and its shareholders) in comparison to the x86 chips (including atom).

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: aigomorla
lol i like my sources better.

im sure u do too idc.

I think I'm over-rated when it comes to folks assuming I actually have sources :laugh:

I know you are not, I've seen the proof, but for me not so much.

 

[Denithor]

Originally posted by: Idontcare
edit: BTW did you catch the lingering 90nm component to that chart? That's itanium (montecito), the once and forever king. Intel has yet to release their 65nm itanium chip (tukwilla). Kinda sad to see just how paltry the CPU value/volume of itanium represents to Intel (and its shareholders) in comparison to the x86 chips (including atom).

What exactly is Itanium and what are the benefits of the architecture? I've heard the name for years and always associated it with the supercomputer sector (not even sure this is right) but I really have no knowledge of what it is and how it works. Care to enlighten me?

 

[taltamir]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Itanium

Basically, it is a completely different architecture than x86... one which gets great multicore scaling.

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: Denithor

Originally posted by: Idontcare
edit: BTW did you catch the lingering 90nm component to that chart? That's itanium (montecito), the once and forever king. Intel has yet to release their 65nm itanium chip (tukwilla). Kinda sad to see just how paltry the CPU value/volume of itanium represents to Intel (and its shareholders) in comparison to the x86 chips (including atom).

What exactly is Itanium and what are the benefits of the architecture? I've heard the name for years and always associated it with the supercomputer sector (not even sure this is right) but I really have no knowledge of what it is and how it works. Care to enlighten me?

It's a big-iron cpu that never was meant to play in the dekstop segment. By big-iron I mean mainframe class performance, IBM's Power6 and SUN's Ultrasparc/Niagara chips play in the market segment as well. (AMD has nothing that plays in this segment)

It has done well in terms of destroying the competition (DEC's Alpha is gone, SGI's MIPs, HP's PA-risc, all gone now) and is taking marketshare, but the goalposts for market volume and profits has continually moved out in ways that are not flattering.

I only mentioned it in my post because the data was right there in that Intel graph if you knew what you were looking at and I had never realized just how small the dollar-volume was for Itanium product line.

 

[drizek]

Originally posted by: Idontcare

Originally posted by: lopri

Don't be, just because the five or six more vocal/active forum members here (including myself) have seen this before doesn't mean that there aren't lurkers and other forum members who have not seen it otherwise. (your thread has nearly 300 views, that says something)

I hope our posts didn't stifle discussion of the contents of the links in the OP. I think the info in Goto-san's reports is great, and yes it can lack some of the most recent up to the minute stuff but there is some food for thought contained in his articles.

Originally posted by: lopri
It is curious that Intel forecasts its 32nm products will occupy nearly 20% of its inventory, if this slide is to be believed. Is it realistic?

You know I thought the same thing when I looked at that slide too, and it is a leaked Intel slide unlike the roadmap stuff which is a compilation of leaked roadmap stuff, but if you look at the comparable quarter for 45nm ramp - Q4/07 - we see Intel ramped 45nm much faster than they plan to ramp 32nm.

So yes 20% seems like a lot of clarkdales hitting the markets but at the same time apparently it won't be nearly as much as the initial penryn release entailed.

edit: BTW did you catch the lingering 90nm component to that chart? That's itanium (montecito), the once and forever king. Intel has yet to release their 65nm itanium chip (tukwilla). Kinda sad to see just how paltry the CPU value/volume of itanium represents to Intel (and its shareholders) in comparison to the x86 chips (including atom).

THe thing about that slide is the word "value". If a westmere can sell for twice as much as a penryn, then doesn't it have twice as much value, and double the representation on the chart per chip?

 

[pm]

I work on Itanium. The high-end server market is very different from the desktop market. Validation times are very, very long . Customers have a long term perspective.

 

[Denithor]

From the wiki page:

Itanium has proven to be one of the biggest technological flops in the history of computing. Its sales were so disastrously beneath expectations that the appellation of "Itanic" has been applied to the franchise, invoking the ill-fated ocean liner RMS Titanic. Journalist John C. Dvorak, commenting in 2009 on the history of the Itanium processor, said "This continues to be one of the great fiascos of the last 50 years." Tech columnist Ashlee Vance commented that the delays and underperformance "turned the product into a joke in the chip industry."

Ouch.

The page though also mentions these chips work with "instruction-level parallelism" which puts me in mind of the GT200 cards from nVidia. Probably barely a blip on anyone's radar thus far but what's the potential (if any) of nVidia (or ATi for that matter) cards being used in the applications for which Itanium was designed?

Is this what has Intel's proverbial panties in a wad? Causing the lawsuits, etc between these two companies...?

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: drizek
THe thing about that slide is the word "value". If a westmere can sell for twice as much as a penryn, then doesn't it have twice as much value, and double the representation on the chart per chip?

Yep, that's how you read it.

Originally posted by: pm
I work on Itanium. The high-end server market is very different from the desktop market. Validation times are very, very long . Customers have a long term perspective.

Yeah it clearly dominates that market segment, taking second only to IBM by most accounts. (some would say Itanium is third behind SUN but SUN's marketshare is rather splintered across product lines unlike Power6 vs. Montecito)

The validation life-cycle of these big iron chips is quite amazing. Rock was in validation for nearly 2yrs before SUN ultimately decided to just cancel the entire chip rather than bring it to market at that point. Niagara 2 was nearly 18months validation cycle. Although the award for longest validation cycle has got to go to Tukwilla hands-down (by the time its finally released, projected at Q1/10 now).

I was just taken aback by how little dollar volume Intel does with Itanium sales, I had always assumed it was high single digit (5-10%) of gross revenue with the margins coming in even higher than those from x86 xeon chips. I would not have ever believed otherwise had I not seen it directly in an Intel slide like that.