some points of the call
1. Intel mentioned twice they now have higher ASP, but in the same time they mentioned that Xeon pricing was impacted by the competitors products, i am not sure how to make sense of that, maybe they sell at higher prices than Intel's own prior products, but not as high as they could have charged if not for AMD
2. intel said regarding SPR "we are on track to ship 1 million units by midyear"
3. promises made about its foundry business is as good as possible to get from promises, actual foundry revenue also showed a significant increase over last Quarter and over last year, however current revenue is way to low of volume to give us any measure about IDM 2.0 progress.
But those who care about promises should be happy with some big promises, including a promise to disclose big wins for intel 16, 3 and 18a during the year, another promising point is intel's update about 20 and 18A progress, "On Intel 20A and Intel 18A.... internal test chips and those of a major potential foundry customer have taped out with the silicon running in the fab" and he added "we continue to make progress on Intel 18A, and I've already shared the engineering release of PDK0.5 with our lead customers and expect to have the final production release in the next few weeks"
(rumor is saying that Qualcomm is the costumer that Intel is referring to)
4. promised to interduce and ramp emerald rapids and meteor lake in second half of this year.
Microsoft already confirmed the obvious, windows sales were considerably down in last Quarter, no Question the desktop market is not in best shape at the moment.
Intel CFO mentioned 4 times in the call underload, which means Intel sits on inventory they can not sell, AMD will not have much better numbers.
I am concerned that AMD will report on lower profit margins regardless of the desktop market conditions, Given that Zen4 is based on TSM advanced nodes, while RPL and ADL are based on a mature and internal node, i suspect that AMD had much higher cost for Zen4 VS intel cost for RPL, I would expect Intel to have a far better cost advantage over AMD.
Initially Zen 4 prices were not competitive with RPL, but they Quickly lowered prices, and we know the reason why.
But the server Business might be the place where AMD will possibly show strength.
I am afraid that AMD is close to reaching the peak, Epyc has a few more years to shine, but ultimately not only will intel better compete than they do currently, but the entire X86 server dominance will at some point fade, All the hyperscale's should be considered as competitors to X86.
not that X86 will somehow collaps very soon, quite the contrary, it will perhaps have its place for a very long time, but its going to be like windows Vs Linux, windows is still a major server OS, but Linux is by now the de-facto server OS for most applications, The same game will playout with with Risc - V, Amazon, Google, Alibaba, etc will not be happy to pay hefty margins for the privilege to use X86, and we already see billions of dollars and great talent being applied to big Risc-V projects, its open sourced and considered a much simpler architecture than any other architecture (i belive I've heard that from Jim Keller), that is besides the growing presence of ARM chips in the server market, this paradigm shift will only accelerate to the benefit of the cloud companies who couldnt care less about AMD or Intel profit margin.
I just think intel will be in a better place Than AMD in 5 years from now, not because Pat is better executing than Lisa, but because of the advantages that foundry will eventually have over designers, i dont expect any other foundry to sprout from nowhere in the next 10 years that will be able to compete with the few big fabs, intel atleast have a chance to improve its fab, whereas AMD have a much smaller chance to take more market share against both challengers, intel's competition on X86, and the Risc-V inevitable bite in servers, + ARMs bigger bites in desktop (in the form of apple or soon Qualcomm and perhaps MediaTek as well).
Intel has little room to fall from here, SPR is definitely inferior to AMDs products, Pat confirmed that several times in the past, but, since everyone is aware about it and its priced in the stock price, this might actually be a good investment opportunity for those who belive that foundry will deliver on its promise, I am in the believer camp but it will take atleast another 18 months to playout.