Question Intel Q2: 7 nm in bad shape

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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
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Here's the money shot:

The company's 7nm-based CPU product timing is shifting approximately six months relative to prior expectations.
The primary driver is the yield of Intel's 7nm process, which based on recent data, is now trending approximately
twelve months behind the company's internal target.

Data Center volume up 29% (plus 5% ASP)
Notebook up 9%
Desktop down 14% - not as bad as I had thought

Q3 guidance bad - revenue of 18.2b vs 19.2b in 2019
 
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Zucker2k

Golden Member
Feb 15, 2006
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Those unfamiliar with the Intel organization may be confused, because the title of "Principal Engineer" is often handed out for non-technical contributions. Francois Piednol was never an Intel Engineer in any technical sense. Piednol was a marketing employee in the retail/direct-to-consumer area. He was promoted to Principal for his initiative to create the Intel Extreme Edition brand name (https://ark.intel.com/content/www/u...echnology-3-73-ghz-2m-cache-1066-mhz-fsb.html). In other words, his greatest achievement at Intel was recognizing the opportunity to boost profit margins by selling a halo SKU to enthusiasts. He almost certainly knows absolutely nothing about manufacturing, architecture, or circuit design.
Maybe this will create a better picture of his role at Intel and his involvement in architecture development at Intel. If that's not technical then I don't know what is.

 
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dmens

Platinum Member
Mar 18, 2005
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Maybe this will create a better picture of his role at Intel and his involvement in architecture development at Intel. If that's not technical then I don't know what is.


Guess you don't know then.
 
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tamz_msc

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2017
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Maybe this will create a better picture of his role at Intel and his involvement in architecture development at Intel. If that's not technical then I don't know what is.

Nothing in his LinkedIn suggests that he's an authority on Intel's process(TMG) side of things, which is where their current woes stem from.
 
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teejee

Senior member
Jul 4, 2013
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Maybe this will create a better picture of his role at Intel and his involvement in architecture development at Intel. If that's not technical then I don't know what is.


nope, all info from Piednoels own LinkedIn CV so just bragging stuff. Piednoel did not have a real top level engineering role at Intel

Just an example: Who of you know the name Per Hammarlund? Probably very few, he worked at Intel around the same time as Piednoel and made major contributions like for example being one of the masterminds behind Intels Hyperthreading and later chief architect for Haswell. And he has his name on tons of Intels patents.
But he was still just one of like 50 or so Intel fellows. And there are like a dozen senior fellows above Per.

Piednoel though, he was two levels below Per in the hierarchy....

Piednoel is simply the type of guy who really likes to be seen/heard and to be perceived as very important.

(by the way, Per left for Apple a few years ago...)
 

itsmydamnation

Platinum Member
Feb 6, 2011
2,744
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LOL, they are *all* gone. There is literally no one left with any talent whatsoever.
given the process delays, what core design were unaffected by the brain drain? i assume things like Cannon lake and Ice Lake have been effectively ready from a design side for years and years.
 

dmens

Platinum Member
Mar 18, 2005
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given the process delays, what core design were unaffected by the brain drain? i assume things like Cannon lake and Ice Lake have been effectively ready from a design side for years and years.

Pretty much everything on the market now (except the oldest skylake xeons) and everything coming up on the roadmap is post brain drain.
 
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Gideon

Golden Member
Nov 27, 2007
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Pretty much everything on the market now (except the oldest skylake xeons) and everything coming up on the roadmap is post brain drain.
Hmm, thst's surprisingly far back. So anything before the original Ocean Cove should still be good?
 

dmens

Platinum Member
Mar 18, 2005
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Hmm, thst's surprisingly far back. So anything before the original Ocean Cove should still be good?

Dunno. My direct visibility ended when I bailed and some of those designs are still not on the market. Beyond that, the way I gauge things are on the upswing is if my friends and former coworkers stopped griping about all the toxic politics, incompetence, and general outlook for the company. Hasn't happened yet.
 

LightningZ71

Golden Member
Mar 10, 2017
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Unfortunately, that's not just an Intel exclusive thing. From what I hear from ex class mates on social media from a variety of companies across the country, mainly tech, it's that way, more or less, everywhere.
 

mikk

Diamond Member
May 15, 2012
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If there is "only" a 6 months delay for CPU products Intels CPU segment isn't neccessarily in a bad position because it appears AMD isn't coming before H2 2022 with first 5nm products: https://videocardz.com/newz/amd-ryzen-2021-2022-roadmap-partially-leaks

Alder Lake-S is going against Warhol which is a Zen 3 refresh generation of Vermeer and Rembrand is Zen3 based as well which is going against Alder Lake-P. If Intel is ready with Meteor Lake until H1 2023 they are fine.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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Warhol smells like BS to me.

The only thing it could be is Zen 3 on AM5 with DDR5 support, which is pointless and a horrible introduction to AM5 given what the platform supports (which is a topic for a completely different day).

I strongly suggests to take that "roadmap" with a grain of salt.

Hope you're right.
 

Doug S

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2020
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If there is "only" a 6 months delay for CPU products Intels CPU segment isn't neccessarily in a bad position because it appears AMD isn't coming before H2 2022 with first 5nm products: https://videocardz.com/newz/amd-ryzen-2021-2022-roadmap-partially-leaks

Alder Lake-S is going against Warhol which is a Zen 3 refresh generation of Vermeer and Rembrand is Zen3 based as well which is going against Alder Lake-P. If Intel is ready with Meteor Lake until H1 2023 they are fine.

Does anyone seriously believe it will be only a six month delay, after the repeated lies and deflections from Intel around 10nm? They even released a single 10nm SKU in a single OEM's low end product that shipped about 100K units so they could claim they were "shipping" 10nm CPUs back in 2018.

Anyone that gives their statements about 7nm process delays any credibility is exactly who PT Barnum was talking about.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,510
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Does anyone seriously believe it will be only a six month delay, after the repeated lies and deflections from Intel around 10nm? They even released a single 10nm SKU in a single OEM's low end product that shipped about 100K units so they could claim they were "shipping" 10nm CPUs back in 2018.

Yep, the expectation for anything in 2022 should be that anything 7 nm will be tiny and very low volume. But at least with chiplets, it does make it more feasible to have an actual sellable product.
 

mikk

Diamond Member
May 15, 2012
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Does anyone seriously believe it will be only a six month delay, after the repeated lies and deflections from Intel around 10nm?

The 6 months delay refers to CPU products. I believe 7nm CPUs weren't planned in 2021. The delay from the initial first 7nm product (previously H2 2021 Ponte Vecchio) might shift back 12 months.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
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The 6 months delay refers to CPU products. I believe 7nm CPUs weren't planned in 2021. The delay from the initial first 7nm product (previously H2 2021 Ponte Vecchio) might shift back 12 months.

Went back and looked at AT's article, they said nothing about 6 month delay being related to CPU products specifically. I think you would have to take it to mean any product in general.

This of course also assuming they don't fall further behind as time passes.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
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Just to add what I was thinking; that they would fab something like an 8 core Atom (maybe Gracemont, maybe Nextmont) chiplet on 7 nm at the end of 2022, with the rest of the product using chiplets from some other node. If 7 nm falls further behind, it's nbd and you just cancel it. At 20-40 mm2, that should be doable.

The 2022 laptop / 2023 desktop would not use 7 nm. Have to admit at this point you simply can't take the risk of 7 nm completely blowing up on ya. Ideally that would be on a foundry node for the CPU at least.
 
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mikk

Diamond Member
May 15, 2012
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Intel told this not Anandtech. 7nm CPU products push out ~6 months....~12 months. Maybe the slide is not accurate but this is what they have told.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
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Does anyone seriously believe it will be only a six month delay, after the repeated lies and deflections from Intel around 10nm? They even released a single 10nm SKU in a single OEM's low end product that shipped about 100K units so they could claim they were "shipping" 10nm CPUs back in 2018.

Anyone that gives their statements about 7nm process delays any credibility is exactly who PT Barnum was talking about.
With Intel, at this point, seeing is believing, IMHO. When I see volume production of 7nm CPUs, then I'll believe it.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,510
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Intel told this not Anandtech. 7nm CPU products push out ~6 months....~12 months. Maybe the slide is not accurate but this is what they have told.

Well at one time it was supposed to be PV at the end of 21, followed by Granite Rapids in 1H 22. Now PV and GR are gone and it's only an unspecified client part at the end of 22. I guess you could say that the gap between when GR was supposed to be released and this client part might end up being 6 months apart.