Intel is succeding and AMD will have serious problems.

[BDSM]

And all this will ofcourse benefit us consumers!

The P4 Northwood will be out in a few weeks at frequencies up to at least 2.2 Ghz initially. Amd won't have anything to compete with that until maybe in mars, even with their .. rating system. Not only will the northwood sport higher frequencies and run cooler but it also has a larger L2 cache which will make it alot more competetive in office apps. I've already seen the Northwood overclocked to almost 3 Ghz which implies that Intel can release faster chips easily. And I think it is likely that they will to regain lost marketshares and to definitely regain the performance crown.

I think AMD has gotten a little too sure of themselves. But they will find that when the Northwood outperforms the Athlon in every segment, (and quite significantly as more and more SSE 2 optimized software is released) there will be little of the loyalty that Intel enjoyed when AMD started releasing processors that outperformed Intel's top of the line processors! And this will apply to the enthisiast market as well. (that is us)

It took Intel many years to establish their name and AMD is nowhere close to that kind of market recognition yet. And they are about to lose the performance crown back to Intel BIG TIME and will not be able to take it back anytime soon, if ever.

So AMD will be left with the only option of lowering prices (YAY!!) significantly if they want to keep selling chips.

And this is where the Celeron 2 1200 mhz and above comes into the picture.

Intel is able to make this cpu VERY cheaply and you can expect Intel will relese faster and faster Celeron 2's and they will position it against the Athlon Xp! Yes.. yes.. the Celeron 2 is no match for the XP. But in the value sector max performance isn't everything. Value is!

So Intel will probably keep the Celeron 2 EXTREMELY competetive price wize and they will get away with it because it is alot cheaper for them to manufacture than the XP is for AMD right now.


AMD has difficult times ahead! We are going to witness a price war onslaught!! And that will ultimately benefit YOU and ME!

 

[Idoxash]

haha this is what will happen:

VIA will rename the c3 as Cyrix XP that can do 20 gigaflops and a super fast bus and everything that can be put into a cpu and blow both intel and amd out of bussy eh haha........well by now you can say i had a lill to much to smoke so haha......

 

[Engineer]

(Another one)

 

[dowxp]

.. while i prefer intel, this is too far fetched. =\

 

[sandorski]

If that 2.2ghz Northwood can keep up with an Athlon XP 1900, it will be quite the feat. Likely it will be almost as fast, then the Athlon XP 2000 will come out.

 

[damocles]

<< If that 2.2ghz Northwood can keep up with an Athlon XP 1900, it will be quite the feat. Likely it will be almost as fast, then the Athlon XP 2000 will come out. >>



Personally I think the Northwood will do the things that P4s are strongest in Well, better than the Athlons. I imagine the Athlons will still be stronger in the FPU intensive stuff.

We might actually see a bit more divergence between the different processors

Even if the Northwood were to clean sweep the XP (which i doubt), price would still be a mitigating factor for most people

 

[sjankech]

if the northwood is such a kickass processor than why is Intel gonna only charge a few dollars more when u compare prices of p4 2ghz and p4 northwood 2ghz.

 

[rwalterk]

If the performance between the two is reasonably close, then it all boils down to marketing. Intel's marketing department kicks AMD's so bad it's pathetic. Jerry Sanders could really have something going if he would wake up and understand just how effective an increased marketing budget would be. In any case, the price wars will continue and in the public eye Intel will still have the edge because of perception. The only people who pay attention to benchmarks and architecture are us. The price wars will definitely continue (yay) but they hurt AMD more than Intel.

 

[CTho9305]

do you have a source for ANYTHING you said? if so... how is AMD trouble good? less competition = higher prices

 

[DragonFire]

Are you kidding me?

My 1.4GHz Thunderbird @ 1.48Ghz almost performs as well as a P2 2GHz and if I overclock to 1.6ghz, my little thunderbird out does a P2 GHz (using Sandra)


Last time I looked Intel prices were still much higher then AMD.

Also, AMD is able to sell cpus without flooding your tv with stupid ads like Intel. So maybe Intel does sell more because people that know nothing about computers believe what they see on TV, if they want to pay more....let them. Id say its up to AMD fans to get the word out which is what some of us AMD fans do.... Iv managed to get 7 people to throw Intel out for AMD and they couldnt be happier and do they do? They tell there friends and so on.

Unless Intel throws its hype out and stops relying on apps that are heavily SSE/ SSE2 optimized I dont see Intel winning anytime soon. I suppose if they keep puching the speed up they will brainwash people into buying there chips only to see that the performance hasnt improved.

 

[Emo]

<< Are you kidding me?

My 1.4GHz Thunderbird @ 1.48Ghz almost performs as well as a P2 2GHz and if I overclock to 1.6ghz, my little thunderbird out does a P2 GHz (using Sandra)
>>



No offense but have you even touched a P2 (sic) 2GHz system to make a real world comparison? Sandra benchmarks are so worthless it's not even funny. And before anyone accuses me of anti-AMD bigotry, one of my systems is an XP1600+/Epox 8KHA+ and it is a fast system. For me the issue is not so much with the AMD chips as with the supporting hardware, mainly motherboards. That's why AMD is having a problem getting into the mainstream market. I hope AMD designs more of its chipsets, but that seems unlikely given their limited R&D.

 

[rwalterk]

"Last time I looked Intel prices were still much higher then AMD.
Also, AMD is able to sell cpus without flooding your tv with stupid ads like Intel. So maybe Intel does sell more because people that know nothing about computers believe what they see on TV, if they want to pay more....let them."

Dragon, this is precisely what marketing is all about. Perception is king, and unfortunately real performance only counts to people like us. AMD will never topple Intel unless they also start "flooding your TV with stupid ads like Intel." You can complain all you want about it, but cheaper and better still may not equal success against good marketing. Less educated buyers and IT managers will stick with Intel because it's better marketed. IT managers (I'm talking about ones at big companies) also stick with Intel because there's fewer headaches with chipsets.

 

[tslaughrey]

<< Sandra benchmarks are so worthless it's not even funny. >>



Sandra isn't real world, but there have been enough reviews of the Athlon XP vs. P4 2GHz on different tech sites to show that the Athlon XP wins most of the real world benchmarks, too. I don't need to go buy a P4 system to compare to mine to know that.

Regarding the gloom and doom scenario that originated this thread ... I think Miss Cleo could do a better job of predicting the future. You should wait until the Northwood comes out before you start predicting the demise of AMD. I remember when Rambus first came out, and the original P4 for that matter ... lots of people said they were going to kick ass and this and that and they just didn't quite live up to some of the hype. Better not count your chickens before they're hatched, so to speak.

And besides, I don't see that scenario as being so great for the consumer. If Intel drives AMD out of business, then there's no competition and we're back to higher prices again. You should be rooting for AMD to stay ahead of Intel or at least competitive. That's worked pretty well for consumers for the last couple of years.

 

[AGodspeed]

Amd won't have anything to compete with that until maybe in mars, even with their .. rating system.

The Athlon XP 2000+ will be released by that time. I'm betting it'll be as fast as the 2.2GHz Northwood.

I've already seen the Northwood overclocked to almost 3 Ghz which implies that Intel can release faster chips easily.

Overclocking a 2.2GHz P4 to 3GHz doesn't mean Intel will be able to produce a lot of 3GHz processors. I've also seen 1.33GHz Athlon T-birds overclocked to 2GHz, but that certainly doesn't mean AMD will be able to put out a lot of 2GHz T-birds (or Athlon XPs for that matter).

But they will find that when the Northwood outperforms the Athlon in every segment, (and quite significantly as more and more SSE 2 optimized software is released) there will be little of the loyalty that Intel enjoyed when AMD started releasing processors that outperformed Intel's top of the line processors!

I hope you're not basing that on the fact that Northwood will have more L2 cache. That doesn't mean it'll perform 5-10% better (which is the minimum for a significant performance difference) than the Willamette P4's.

Intel is able to make this cpu VERY cheaply and you can expect Intel will relese faster and faster Celeron 2's and they will position it against the Athlon Xp! Yes.. yes.. the Celeron 2 is no match for the XP. But in the value sector max performance isn't everything. Value is!

Unfortunately, it looks like that won't ever happen (link). Looks like Intel might release a 1.3GHz Celeron P4 (.13 micron, 256K L2) part just before Northwood instead of going with a PIII Celeron at 1.3GHz. That's a shame, those Celeron 2 are much better IMO.

 

[sandorski]

Damocles: Agreed!

sjankech: The Northwood will be cheaper for Intel to produce, so despite little difference in price Intel will be making more money per processor. You could be right though, my AMD loving butt hopes so!

rwalterk: AMD has been gaining marketshare for a few years now with little to no marketing. I've been through so many "Intel will crush AMD when.." scenarios that I tend to dismiss what Intel has coming. AMD has proven that it knows what it is doing and has plotted a course that rivals anything Intel can throw out into the market. Slowly but surely AMD is establishing itself as an industry leader and the industry listens when AMD speaks now, unlike how many ignored them during the K6 days.

 

[BDSM]

I won't argue with anyone of you. Noone really knows what will happen the future. We'll just have to wait and see.

 

[MadRat]

Lock.

 

[MisterNi]

If we listened to everyone on how AMD was going bankrupt or going to be demolished by Intel, AMD should've been bought out or filed for Chapter 11 maybe six million times. Just another case of some Intel zealot spreading FUD.

 

[apoppin]

I DARE you to post this thread in General Hardware, BDSM.



EDIT: I don't agree with your guess as to the future. AMD is a very resourceful company.

 

[Damascus]

<< The Northwood will be cheaper for Intel to produce, so despite little difference in price Intel will be making more money per processor. >>



I fail to see how that helps us. Heh.

 

[Chipset]

Even if Intel gains the upper hand in performance for the short term, Thoroughbred and Hammer have yet to be released and who knows how well they will perform?

 

[rogue1979]

This is just my opinion, there is no real proof to back this up. I think the Thoroughbred is ready now to be released at 1833Mhz on a 333MHz fsb. AMD is trying to keep this one quiet, they feel there is no need to release Thoroughbred now because XP is still beating P4. When the Northwood tries to take the performance crown, AMD will step right up and put them down again! Look at Intels cpu prices, thank god AMD is competitive or we would be back to $1000 plus cpu's! I will guess the Thoroughbred will be able to reach speeds in excess of 2.5GHz.

 

[MadRat]

Thoroughbred will be the cheapest CPU that either AMD or Intel will manufacture as far as die cost goes. The NorthWood is quite big even when compared to Athlons on the .18 micron process.

Again, please LOCK this damn pissing match.

 

[NesuD]

Not again! where do these noob fools keep coming from.

 

[BDSM]

As I said everyone.. Noone KNOWS what will happen. I said what I think will happen. A lot of ppl think I am way off. They just have a different perception of reality. And the only way to learn who is right or wrong is to wait. Until summer 2002.