Between Tiger Lake to Alder Lake, Alder Lake to Raptor Lake and Raptor Lake to Meteor Lake the second is by far the smallest 1T performance improvement.
Your second and third option is unknown at this point and not more than a random guess from your side. Meteor Lake might not bring a major CPU IPC upgrade if it's a typical Intel tick core upgrade like Ivy Bridge, Broadwell, Cannonlake. And it remains to be seen if Intels first 7nm/4 product is able to reach the 1T clock speeds of the matured 10ESF/7.
Nobody expects an Alder Lake like IPC upgrade from Raptor Cove. The thing is jpiniero claims zero IPC upgrade which is in conflict with Intels Raptor Lake comment as well as MLIDs expectation.
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