Alderlake, especially the -M variant seems to be the most mysterious part. The 2+8+2 doesn't seem competitive. Or is it?
If 2+8+2 is really the successor to Tigerlake, and considering it needed 6 cores, 2+8+2 seems like a serious downgrade.
Also unlike Lakefield, at the minimum the big cores have to work simultaneously with the small cores. This seems to be the key, and a big change for Lakefield, both in performance and in the technical front.
2+8+2 configuration with Golden Cove being 20% faster per clock and Gracemont being an additional 30% faster per clock over Tremont makes it possible in theory for 2+8+2 to beat 4+2 of Tigerlake, and by 20% or so.
We need more than that though. The same is true in desktops for Alderlake.
Is Intel going to permanently cede multi-threading performance leadership to AMD, or does it have a secret sauce?
We still don't know Gracemont clocks, if they are still Atom level running at 2.5GHz even with >Skylake IPC it would be a mixed bag, on the other hand if they could actually push up to 4GHz that would make them relevant outside of purely parallel workloads.
As for the big cores consider Tiger Lake merely redesigned the memory system and with larger caches it still manages to beat
Icelake by 2-5% in IPC, given Skylake-X memory changes affected performance so much over client Skylake I was worried there would be a hit here too, yet it goes faster.
Golden Cove inside Alder will perform even better, so that turns theoretically to this match:
Skylake IPC = 1.0
Tiger Lake = 1.2
Tremont* = 1.0
Alder Lake* = 1.4
(* is speculation, both most conservative estimate given the rumours floating around)
2 (cores) x 1.4 (IPC) x 4.4 (GHz)= 12.32 (performance in astrological prediction units)
+
8 x 1 x 2.5 = 20
vs
4 x 1.2 x 4 = 19.2
Under light threaded loads Alder dual will outperform Tiger Lake quads due to both higher clocks (I assume 10% at most with enhanced super fin and one year of refinements) and IPC, total performance is 12 vs 19 so a decent 65% with half the cores, hopefully using around that % of power too.
I didn't include SMT in both as I think any advantage here would be lost when Alder Lake small cores kick in: that's a theoretical boost of 20 points, so already over Tiger Lake all core performance, no SMT gains are going to reach 2x the performance hence purely parallel loads will have the next generation win.
Assuming a workload needs exactly 4 cores that would leave Alder Lake slightly behind at 17 Vs 19 points, but realistically no program does that, unless you have 4 instances open of a heavy single-threaded app.
As for the heavy weights, desktop CPUs, I'm sure with 8 Golden cove at 5 GHz no one will miss much the 10 cores Comet lake had (also there's still 8 Tremont cores):
8 x 1.4 x 5 = 56
+
8 x 1 x 2.5 = 20
vs
10 x 1 x 5.2 = 52
35% better single and 45% multithread are quite something.