Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread

[Exist50]

They should, "Core" is the most ridiculous marketing term I have ever seen a semi-conductor company use.

And even more ridiculous, someone being paid $100,000+ , likely came up with it and it has been allowed to run for years now.

It is kind of an arrogant name, isn't it. Like, we think our core is so good that it's the reference for what a core is. At least Atom makes sense.

 

[jpiniero]

It looks like Intel has some big contracts lined up for Q1 for cloud customers which will give a big boost to their Q1 results (+$2.3B over 1Q19) but then full year revenue of +$1.5B over 2019. So basically they're predicting a large increase in Q1 but then flat or even a decrease over the rest of the year. Comparatively, AMD is predicting +28-30% revenue and significantly higher than that % increase in servers for full year 2020. We'll see how it plays out.

Yeah, and for the year Intel is guiding double digit decrease in revenue for client although a decent part of that could be due to the loss of the modem revenue when Apple goes 5G.

 

[liahos1]

intel is what you call "sandbagging" the 2h of the year. Its pretty obvious thats why the stock ripped. AMD on the other hand - looks like they lost server share in q4, and are set to lose pc share q4'19 to q1'20. Thats why the stock tanked.

 

[RetroZombie]

It looks like intel is set to gain pc share in q1 per amds guidance. I think once icelake server is out in 2h things get ugly. gg thanks for playing!

How soo?
The line looks like a complete disaster to me (assuming the information in the asus slide is real!)

Platform​	Sky Lake​	Cascade Lake​	Cooper Lake​	Ice Lake​	My notes
Process Node​	(Purley, 14nm)​	(Purley, 14nm)​	(Whitley 14nm)​	(Whitley, 10nm)​	Same process ever and the new bad one
Launch Date​	July 11,2017​	April 2, 2019​	Q2, 2020​	Q3,2020​	Literally the same stuff 3 years latter
Socket​	Socket P​	Socket P​	Socket P+​	Socket P+​	Same refreshed socket, ok
PCH​	C62x series​	C62x series​	C62x series​	C62x series​	Same old stuff, ok
Cores​	Up to 28C per socket​	Up to 28C per Socket​	Up to 48C per socket​	Up to 38C Per Socket​	More cores nice, but the newer will have less cores than the predecessor?
TDP​	Up to 205W​	Up to 205W​	Up to 300W​	Up to 270w​	Increase in TDP, the trade of for adding more cores, but the newer with less 10 cores for just 30 Watts decrease?
Scalability​	2S, 4S, 8S​	2S, 4S, 8S​	2S​	2S​	End of scalability? Only 2S cpus? Severe platform downgrade?
Memory​	6CH DDR4, up to 2666Mhz 12 DIMM Per Socket​	6CH DDR4, up to 2666Mhz 12 DIMM Per Socket 1st Gen Intel Persistent memory​	8CH DDR4, up to 3200Mhz 16 DIMM per socket​	8CH DDR4 up to 3200Mhz 16 DIMM per Socket 2nd Gen Intel Persistent memory​	added two more memory channels to feed 10 cores (and 20 cores) it obviously needed
PCI-e lanes​	48 Gen3​	48 Gen3​	64 Gen3​	64 Gen4​	Major breakthrough, oh wait…
UPI Link​	UP to 3 UPI​	UP to 3 UPI​	UP to 4 UPI​	UP to 3 UPI​	Who cares…

If I would put amd epic to compare it would be a blood bath, but since many are very sensible in discussing others guys stuff in other guys threads I will not do that.
Note: Used OCR software to make the table so it might have typos.

 

[jpiniero]

intel is what you call "sandbagging" the 2h of the year.

Once this cycle ends, Intel's going to have to really slash server prices to maintain share. As it is, they are already selling XCC dies for slightly more than HCC.

Have no idea how they are going to sell Cooper versus Rome/Milan.

 

[RetroZombie]

It is kind of an arrogant name, isn't it.

If you add the i doesn't look so arrogant, forgetting the number after it....
My corei, my corei, my precious corei

 

[Ajay]

intel is what you call "sandbagging" the 2h of the year. Its pretty obvious thats why the stock ripped. AMD on the other hand - looks like they lost server share in q4, and are set to lose pc share q4'19 to q1'20. Thats why the stock tanked.

I saw somewhere, I think Hardware Unboxed, that high end gaming rig sales (from OEMs) is almost entirely i7 9900k. No one was touching AMD. That sentiment may have trickled down to lesser systems (years of Intel Inside advertising, etc.). Corporate customers are likely still buying Intel. Intel has been building their brand for Decades and is considered a reliable partner. AMD, unfortunately, has a spotty record. Momentum is a real asset, especially in servers. Remember when the saying was 'nobody got fired for buying IBM'? Now, replace IBM with Intel.

Anyway, low double digit growth is probably all we can expect from AMD for now. They just don't have the advertising budget to build brand recognition the way they need to right now. IMO.

 

[liahos1]

Once this cycle ends, Intel's going to have to really slash server prices to maintain share. As it is, they are already selling XCC dies for slightly more than HCC.

Have no idea how they are going to sell Cooper versus Rome/Milan.

you could say the same thing about cascade vs rome. the proof is in the pudding.

amd did like ~250mln of epyc revs in the quarter. In q3 they said 50% seq growth for epyc. In q4 they said "strong double digit". Why be vague?

Intel did 7.2bln of DCG revenue in Q4 and had asp up mid single digits, a full two quarters after rome's release.

They also guided their PC biz down seasonally (double digits) while intel guided its pc biz down superseasonal (down 2-3%).

 

[Markfw]

How soo?
The line looks like a complete disaster to me (assuming the information in the asus slide is real!)

Platform​	Sky Lake​	Cascade Lake​	Cooper Lake​	Ice Lake​	My notes
Process Node​	(Purley, 14nm)​	(Purley, 14nm)​	(Whitley 14nm)​	(Whitley, 10nm)​	Same process ever and the new bad one
Launch Date​	July 11,2017​	April 2, 2019​	Q2, 2020​	Q3,2020​	Literally the same stuff 3 years latter
Socket​	Socket P​	Socket P​	Socket P+​	Socket P+​	Same refreshed socket, ok
PCH​	C62x series​	C62x series​	C62x series​	C62x series​	Same old stuff, ok
Cores​	Up to 28C per socket​	Up to 28C per Socket​	Up to 48C per socket​	Up to 38C Per Socket​	More cores nice, but the newer will have less cores than the predecessor?
TDP​	Up to 205W​	Up to 205W​	Up to 300W​	Up to 270w​	Increase in TDP, the trade of for adding more cores, but the newer with less 10 cores for just 30 Watts decrease?
Scalability​	2S, 4S, 8S​	2S, 4S, 8S​	2S​	2S​	End of scalability? Only 2S cpus? Severe platform downgrade?
Memory​	6CH DDR4, up to 2666Mhz 12 DIMM Per Socket​	6CH DDR4, up to 2666Mhz 12 DIMM Per Socket 1st Gen Intel Persistent memory​	8CH DDR4, up to 3200Mhz 16 DIMM per socket​	8CH DDR4 up to 3200Mhz 16 DIMM per Socket 2nd Gen Intel Persistent memory​	added two more memory channels to feed 10 cores (and 20 cores) it obviously needed
PCI-e lanes​	48 Gen3​	48 Gen3​	64 Gen3​	64 Gen4​	Major breakthrough, oh wait…
UPI Link​	UP to 3 UPI​	UP to 3 UPI​	UP to 4 UPI​	UP to 3 UPI​	Who cares…

If I would put amd epic to compare it would be a blood bath, but since many are very sensible in discussing others guys stuff in other guys threads I will not do that.
Note: Used OCR software to make the table so it might have typos.

My 7742 EPYC only draws 225 watts, VERIFIED with 64 cores @100%, I call that a bloodbath. On a single fan NH-14U air

 

[jpiniero]

you could say the same thing about cascade vs rome. the proof is in the pudding.

Look at the Cost of Sales. They managed to maintain share with Cascade, but they had to give XCC for basically HCC prices. And that is what caused the shortage to get worse.

 

[Intel Inside]

Has this red, Toxic army always been here ?


No baiting, inflammatory posting is allowed.


esquared
Anandtech Forum Director

 

[dmens]

"In 2019, Intel expects to generate over $3.5 billion in AI-driven revenue, up more than 20 percent year-over-year. "

LOL pretty easy to fudge that number by including any chip with so-called "DL boost" instruction support as "AI-driven"

Speaking of AI, expect news from Intel of yet another setback on that front soon.

 

[DrMrLordX]

I just don't understand why anyone would buy a general-purpose CPU (even with bfloat16 and VNNI) for "AI" when it's more intelligent to use a dedicated accelerator from nVidia. Claiming that AI is driving Intel's DCG earnings seems really weird.

As far as the rest of the financials go . . . Intel is still making money, but they're doing it in a way that is generally bad for the industry (and Intel's long-term prospects). Expanding marketshare while consistently losing benchmarks in not a good sign, for anyone. Not sure exactly what all that has to do with the topic either, other than the fact that 38c Ice Lake-SP will probably help Intel maintain their benchmark losing streak due to delays.

 

[liahos1]

I just don't understand why anyone would buy a general-purpose CPU (even with bfloat16 and VNNI) for "AI" when it's more intelligent to use a dedicated accelerator from nVidia. Claiming that AI is driving Intel's DCG earnings seems really weird.

As far as the rest of the financials go . . . Intel is still making money, but they're doing it in a way that is generally bad for the industry (and Intel's long-term prospects). Expanding marketshare while consistently losing benchmarks in not a good sign, for anyone. Not sure exactly what all that has to do with the topic either, other than the fact that 38c Ice Lake-SP will probably help Intel maintain their benchmark losing streak due to delays.

how are they making money in a way that is bad for the industry? According to many in here, they should be getting crushed by AMD bc of cinebench results? Maybe there is a misunderstanding between what actually drives purchases in the market vs the tech analysis people use in here?

 

[Richie Rich]

Also, imagine calling a core prehistoric purely because of it's ALU count.

So do you disagree that there is a race for first 6xALU core in x86 world?

Because clearly there are very low hanging fruits for 6xALU as we can see at Apple's A13 example (+80% PPC). IMHO something like 20-30% PPC jump is very achievable in first generation (compare 4xALU A10 -> 6xALU A11). If Intel's Golden Cove will be first 6xALU core then AMD will be in trouble. At least AMD can fight back with higher core counts thanks to TSMC's 5nm (Zen4).

Don't forget that in 2013 there was introduced first 4xALU uarch Intel's Haswell.......... and Apple's A7 (4xALU ARM core) was 2013 product too. However Apple in 2017 just after 4 years moved to 6xALU uarch with A11. Whole x86 world is technologically stuck in 2016 and that's IMO prehistorical.




You have been warned now three times to stop with the Apple and ALU counts in this Intel thread.


esquared
Anandtech Forum Director

 

[BigDaveX]

So do you disagree that there is a race for first 6xALU core in x86 world?

Because clearly there are very low hanging fruits for 6xALU as we can see at Apple's A13 example (+80% PPC). IMHO something like 20-30% PPC jump is very achievable in first generation (compare 4xALU A10 -> 6xALU A11). If Intel's Golden Cove will be first 6xALU core then AMD will be in trouble. At least AMD can fight back with higher core counts thanks to TSMC's 5nm (Zen4).

Don't forget that in 2013 there was introduced first 4xALU uarch Intel's Haswell.......... and Apple's A7 (4xALU ARM core) was 2013 product too. However Apple in 2017 just after 4 years moved to 6xALU uarch with A11. Whole x86 world is technologically stuck in 2016 and that's IMO prehistorical.

Just sticking on another two ALUs isn't going to be worth the effort unless the rest of the chip is up to the task of keeping them fed. It'd be a repeat of K10, where the architecture on paper had the raw execution resources to completely bury Conroe clock-for-clock, but its inefficiencies meant it was only barely equal to it in practice (and that's before you get to everything else that went wrong with the original Phenom).

 

[Richie Rich]

Just sticking on another two ALUs isn't going to be worth the effort unless the rest of the chip is up to the task of keeping them fed. It'd be a repeat of K10, where the architecture on paper had the raw execution resources to completely bury Conroe clock-for-clock, but its inefficiencies meant it was only barely equal to it in practice (and that's before you get to everything else that went wrong with the original Phenom).

Both K10 and Conroe had 3xALU, the only difference on paper was 3xAGU in K10 vs. 2xAGU in Conroe. That's not a good example regarding ALU count. Better one is Dozer vs. IvyBridge, 2xALU vs. 3xALU. Same situation today just twice as wide.

 

[DrMrLordX]

how are they making money in a way that is bad for the industry?

They're still selling a modified Skylake core in their server products. That's horrible. Intel has been standing still in the server world since 2017 and the desktop since 2016. No significant TCO reduction, very little increase in rack density, etc. They're getting massacred in benchmarks. It's embarrassing for Intel and its customers who persist in buying respins of the same core design.

The products that we discuss in this thread (Cannonlake, Ice Lake, Tiger Lake, Sapphire Rapids, and related) are still not represented in Intel's bread & butter server lineup.

@Richie Rich

With all due respect, we've had some pretty significant thread derails in here already, and you've pushed the 6xALU narrative already in multiple other threads. Care to discuss something else?

 

[Thunder 57]

With all due respect, we've had some pretty significant thread derails in here already, and you've pushed the 6xALU narrative already in multiple other threads. Care to discuss something else?

It is indeed annoying and disruptive. I thought @Richie Rich would stick to that in the ARM/Apple thread but he keeps bringing it up.

 

[RetroZombie]

Both K10 and Conroe had 3xALU, the only difference on paper was 3xAGU in K10 vs. 2xAGU in Conroe. That's not a good example regarding ALU count. Better one is Dozer vs. IvyBridge, 2xALU vs. 3xALU. Same situation today just twice as wide.

Are you a huge fan of intel tremont?
introducing-intel-tremont-microarchiture.pdf

 

[Thunder 57]

Are you a huge fan of intel tremont?
introducing-intel-tremont-microarchiture.pdf

Speaking of Tremont, I am interested to see what Lakefield brings.

 

[lobz]

So do you disagree that there is a race for first 6xALU core in x86 world?

Because clearly there are very low hanging fruits for 6xALU as we can see at Apple's A13 example (+80% PPC). IMHO something like 20-30% PPC jump is very achievable in first generation (compare 4xALU A10 -> 6xALU A11). If Intel's Golden Cove will be first 6xALU core then AMD will be in trouble. At least AMD can fight back with higher core counts thanks to TSMC's 5nm (Zen4).

Don't forget that in 2013 there was introduced first 4xALU uarch Intel's Haswell.......... and Apple's A7 (4xALU ARM core) was 2013 product too. However Apple in 2017 just after 4 years moved to 6xALU uarch with A11. Whole x86 world is technologically stuck in 2016 and that's IMO prehistorical.

I think I realized what's going on.

You're a robot!!!

Welcome to our civilization!

 

[lobz]

witeken's latest tweet, and I quote:

"Bob Swan one year (officially) Intel CEO. Scorecard:
- 10nm launch: already ramped as many new process nodes as BK in five years
- restore Tick-Tock cadence
- DG1 dGPU SDV
- Foveros, 3D XPoint DIMM, NNP-I/T, Ponte Vecchio: new tech
- Solve shortages
- Acquisitions, hiring, reorg"

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1223249492998311941

And just over a week ago, you all wanted me to take him seriously because how much he likes facts.

 

[Nothingness]

Yeah Bob Swan also restores lost love and will cure cancer

 

[Kuiva maa]

I saw somewhere, I think Hardware Unboxed, that high end gaming rig sales (from OEMs) is almost entirely i7 9900k. No one was touching AMD. That sentiment may have trickled down to lesser systems (years of Intel Inside advertising, etc.).

Maybe before Zen 2 arrived. Right now most major OEM vendors offer AMD options alongside the intel ones.

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Sure there is some inertia, but DIY market is the one that adds pressure to the prebuilt one, not the other way around and AMD has won plenty of opinion leaders already. What AMD really needs is to start sponsoring pro gamers, twitch streamers and youtubers. They are still lacking in this department, intel wins hands down here and I expect these individuals to be among the first that they receive 2020 desktop models from intel.