News Intel beats EPS but misses on revenue in 4Q17

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Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
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Will update post with more. Earnings call soon.

+Intel has guided downward on FY19 revenue. Guidance for $71.5B vs $73.1B expected. Data center expected up mid single digit and client side expected down low single digit.

+Desktop unit volume dropped 7% Q/Q and 8% Y/Y while ASPs rose 5% and 13%, respectively. Notebook units dropped 10% on the quarter and grew 1% on the year with ASPs up 3% and 6%. Data center units fell 3% Q/Q and grew 9% Y/Y with ASPs up 2% and 1%.

+Q4 revenue breakdown: Client Computing, $9.82B (consensus: $10.01B); Data Center, $6.1B (consensus: $6.35B); IoT, $816M (consensus: $812.7M); Non-Volatile Memory Solutions, $1.11B (consensus: $1.12B); Programmable Solutions, $612M (consensus: $518.7M); Other, $231M (consensus: $297.5M).

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3425818-intel-minus-7-percent-downside-fy-revenue-guide

On the plus side for investors, they increased their dividend by 5%.
 
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scannall

Golden Member
Jan 1, 2012
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A seat on AMDs board will cost you $5B in cash. For what?
I didn't say it was a good idea. Just that it would work around the stupid license stuff. Though Intel's big patents have already expired, or will expire before AMD's.
 
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Tuna-Fish

Golden Member
Mar 4, 2011
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I feel like I need to point out a few things about Amazon corporate culture, which are really relevant to the discussion here.

The core of Amazon as a company is that they vertically integrate everything by implementing competitors to all their dependencies, use them internally, and make them available as a paid service to outsiders. They are extremely predictable at this -- if they spend a lot of money on something outside the company, then that will be a new business unit.

The reason this cultural part is so important is that not all decisions are made to be cash-optimal. Even if they chose to not do it now, no-one at Amazon would ever get fired for daring to suggest that they should make their own CPUs. The decision wasn't really ever an if, but a when. What other dependencies should Amazon replace before tackling the CPU problem? It seems like they have finally worked down the list and it's CPU time.

I don't see how Amazon can internally justify an A72-based ARM server CPU in 2019 (or beyond) when price/performance and performance/watt will be so much better on products from other companies.

There's no sense whatsoever to bet on a A72-based server CPU in 2019, and that's likely not what they are doing. Amazon is one of the most methodical and least quarterly-results-bound large companies in the world. They understand that large undertakings take a long time, and should be done in stages. The job of the current CPU is likely to help mature the software and the platforms in advance of something more substantial in the future.

Hell if they want to go ARM, they would be better off getting in bed with Marvell/Cavium than trying to roll their own (Huawei is not really an option despite having a technically excellent 64c ARM server CPU).

Amazon doesn't really do partnerships like that. Jeff Bezos is approximately the world's greatest control freak. Buying up an external company to set up as his newest business unit would be entirely within his m.o., but the key part is that he will never make a deal that leaves even a sliver of real agency to his "partners". The rule is that what Bezos decrees is law, and if that's not okay with you they'd rather not deal with you and build up a competitor to you instead. Marvell is a bit on the large side for an Amazon acquisition, but it would not be unprecedented. Maybe if the internal CPU project is a dismal failure?

That's basically what Huawei did (with help from their HiSilicon division which had experience developing mobile ARM CPUs). I still get the sneaking suspicion that Amazon may throw in the towel, though. History is filled with the wreckage of failed CPU design efforts. I would say that "time will tell", but in Amazon's case, how would we ever know? They probably wouldn't release specs on anything they designed strictly for internal use, and ODM sales are almost entirely "under the table". We won't know if they continue buying hardware from outside vendors, either.

But do you know what history is not full of? Abandoned Amazon product lines. Just as no-one would get fired for suggesting building a new CPU to Bezos, everyone would know exactly what the two-word reply from Bezos would be if you went up to him and said that "This was too hard, we should give up." Failure at Amazon means they try again. And again. They have the resources, and so far they've managed to brute-force even the hard problems.

With this, I don't mean to describe Amazon as a flawless, unbeatable juggernaut. They have plenty of their own problems, and it's entirely possible that they will have their CPU project crash and burn so many times it becomes a running joke. It's just that their culture and flaws are sort of the inverse of Intel in the past decade. They don't start a thousand projects only to shutter them down after the first iteration turns out to be a failure. When they fail, Bezos fires some people, reorganizes things (often seemingly as if he did it entirely randomly...), puts new people in charge and they try again. For now, that approach has eventually yielded results.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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There's no sense whatsoever to bet on a A72-based server CPU in 2019, and that's likely not what they are doing. Amazon is one of the most methodical and least quarterly-results-bound large companies in the world. They understand that large undertakings take a long time, and should be done in stages. The job of the current CPU is likely to help mature the software and the platforms in advance of something more substantial in the future.

The question is: how quickly can they advance the level of their internal ARM CPU effort compared to competing products? A72 is old hat today, yes, and it's unlikely that they would deploy a product on that basis, just as they presumably didn't adopt AMD's Seattle in great quantity either. If they're constantly behind 2-3 generations compared to Marvell or Huawei, though, then what good are they doing, irrespective of their culture?

But do you know what history is not full of? Abandoned Amazon product lines.

Ehhhhh

https://www.thestreet.com/story/13364106/1/here-are-10-of-amazon-s-biggest-failures.html

And that was as of three years ago.

I do agree that they want to get out from under the Intel tax. Now would seem to be the best possible time for them to make meaningful strides in that direction.
 

BigDaveX

Senior member
Jun 12, 2014
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IIRC, the buyout clause doesn't automatically void AMD's x86 licence, it just gives Intel the option of withdrawing it. Which there's no way they'll actually do given that A) they'd bring down the mother of all anti-trust lawsuits on their heads, and B) it'd also void Intel's right to use AMD64, thus rendering both companies incapable of producing their current CPU line-ups.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,901
12,967
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Those are all consumer products. The experience of using AWS and their other infrastructure is rather different.

Fair point. Whether Amazon can hit it out of the park with a custom ARM design may have nothing to do with whatever is in common with their numerous commercial failures.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
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Getting back to Intel, I just read the an AT pipeline article about the DX1 expansion and noticed this
The processor giant has to disclose many more details about its D1X Phase 3 fab, including actual production capacity as well as process technology that it will use. Two of Intel’s fabs — in Israel and Oregon — are ready to produce CPUs and other products using the company’s 10 nm fabrication process, but it remains to be seen how much additional 10 nm capacity the company will need.

So Intel has two fabs dedicated to 10nm production (I thought it was only one). While this is small for Intel standards, it's still a pretty significant amount of production. Looks to me like the whole Intel laptop/tablet market is being moved to 10nm.
 
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,901
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Well they're supposed to have 10nm laptop chips on store shelves by Q4 2019. Gotta fab them things somewhere.