seekingalpha.com
My impression is that in the past the DCG contributed most to the higher GM. But with AMD's strong competition Intel currently fails to keep up. SPR even split up is an absolute huge chip that has to have a rather terrible margin relative to past products. Even the increasing ASP won't be able to make up for that. And since the DCG won't be able to improve in foreseeable time Intel's focus turned back to the CCG after all the years of Skylake refreshes, but that won't be able to rise GM as much as the DCG did in the past.
Hm, so even today the GM essentially still majorly relies on 14 nm? If that's really the case not only Q1 22 will be low but the subsequent quarters are bound to drop even further.
One thing to keep in mind is that Alder Lake was launched halfway (Nov 4) through Q4 (Sept 26 to Dec 25). And Q4 didn't include the rest of the Alder Lake lineup (mobile and non-K chips). It isn't possible to get a full Alder Lake financial picture from this earnings report.
And their CEO just said "we are in the lead and will only see headlights from AMD from now on" or something delusional like that.
The quote: "Alder Lake. All of a sudden... Boom! We are back in the game. AMD in the rearview mirror in clients, and never again will they be in the windshield"
I said "something like that" and was right ! And nothing is unsaid with a delusional quote like he said. Your original comment about them doing something by 2025 sounds much more realistic.
While you might say that nothing is unsaid, Intel is bound by strict SEC rules. When Gelsinger said Client he meant Client. If you are an investor or potential investor, you should not take that rearview mirror comment to apply to the other Intel segments (Data Center Group, Internet of Things Group, etc.)
semianalysis.substack.com
And how does that cloud information compare to AMD ?Takes by Semianalysis:
"These horrible, 49% margins are despite Intel’s average selling prices in server, laptops, and desktops are increasing. The 10nm ramp of Alder Lake desktop, mobile, and Ice Lake server are the culprits. Intel has products that can sell at somewhat higher prices due to the current semiconductor market environment, but their manufacturing costs on 10nm are still very high. Intel claimed their 10nm manufacturing costs were down 30% year over year, but all that tells us is that the starting point was horrible. Intel is also blaming the low margins on expenses related to the start up of their Intel 4 node."
"Intel’s inventories went up significantly and Intel dodged the question when asked. They talked up the big rotation from Chromebook sales to higher end laptops, increased competitiveness (AMD share gains), the home gateway drawdown, and a major customer going vertical (Apple). None of these were satisfactory answers. We believe that their inventory is way up due to laptop ODMs not being able to secure enough other components and choosing to buy as much AMD as possible while letting Intel only supply the remaining demand."
"The real kicker is that cloud revenue has shrank year over year for 5 quarters in a row. Enterprise and communications really bailed out Intel. Intel claims they shipped more than 1 million Ice Lake server chips which is more than they shipped in the last 3 quarters combined. Despite Ice Lake server launching in the first half of the year, the actual ramp was only Q4."
Semiconductor Roundup - 1/27/2022
Intel, Teradyne, Lam Research, Wolfspeed, Texas Instruments, UMC, Xilinx, Samsung, MediaTek
AMD will reports its Q4 22 earnings on Feb. 1. In general AMD should be able to further increase market share in Cloud.
What I meant, was does anybody have any VOLUME of EPYC chips that AMD may have shipped in the last quarter ? last year ?
It's going to be tough to get the actual volume, unfortunately. AMD lumps their server revenue in with their semicustom so nailing down the server volume is going to be at best an educated guess. A few analysts have estimated that AMD's server market share is approaching 20% or there abouts. Make of that what you will.
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