Inflation is Through the Roof - Whats Biden Admin's First Priority? Stockholders, of course!

[K1052]

Must have austerity to fix totally unrelated supply problem is something that a person comes up with after huffing a lot of gasoline.

 

[maluckey1]

I just got done reading through this hoping that someone would point out that economics isn't a hard/natural science. Economics is a social/pseudo science, and it's no secret that social pressures and media influence not only the stock market, but public policy. Descriptive past-looking statistics aren't useful to predict future random events and social trends. The best economists in the world state it's mostly a crap shoot coupled with public opinion that drives investing and economics in general.

The Illusion of Stock-Picking Skill - Wealthfront Knowledge Center

Donald Trump, Bella Poarch and Justin Bieber are perfect examples of random social issues/successes. Who predicted any of these people would be top of the game?

Failed economic predictions are common amongst the "skilled" of Wall Street, not the least of which are the bubble of 1929 (partially based on overconfidence in growth), Dotcom bubble, housing bubble of 2008 and, of course the bubble of 1987 caused partly by confidence in computer modeling coupled with high deficit.

I can't help but chuckle at the knuckleheads in this thread wagging their large E-Penis's and using some Google-Foo, claiming to be able to predict the secrets to national economies and economics. Trying to use hard science against a social construct is an exercise in personal opinion. It's like arguing the existence of God.

M

 

[fskimospy]

I just got done reading through this hoping that someone would point out that economics isn't a hard/natural science. Economics is a social/pseudo science, and it's no secret that social pressures and media influence not only the stock market, but public policy. Descriptive past-looking statistics aren't useful to predict future random events and social trends. The best economists in the world state it's mostly a crap shoot coupled with public opinion that drives investing and economics in general.

The Illusion of Stock-Picking Skill - Wealthfront Knowledge Center

Donald Trump, Bella Poarch and Justin Bieber are perfect examples of random social issues/successes. Who predicted any of these people would be top of the game?

Failed economic predictions are common amongst the "skilled" of Wall Street, not the least of which are the bubble of 1929 (partially based on overconfidence in growth), Dotcom bubble, housing bubble of 2008 and, of course the bubble of 1987 caused partly by confidence in computer modeling coupled with high deficit.

I can't help but chuckle at the knuckleheads in this thread wagging their large E-Penis's and using some Google-Foo, claiming to be able to predict the secrets to national economies and economics. Trying to use hard science against a social construct is an exercise in personal opinion. It's like arguing the existence of God.

M

What I find most fun about this is how you tried to tie stock market performance to the economy in order to discredit economics when one of the most famous economic sayings is ‘the stock market is not the economy’.

 

[maluckey1]

You are saying that they are not related? Please educate me which one drives which?

 

[fskimospy]

You are saying that they are not related? Please educate me which one drives which?

Yes, exactly.

I Ran the Numbers Again. Stocks Are Not the Economy.

Even when using an equal-weight measure for the S&P 500 and not adjusting for inflation, there is no correlation between the market and GDP.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[maluckey1]

Really,

Stocks Fall as Shares Tied to Economy Retreat - WSJ

 

[maluckey1]

US currency is also a social construct, and the same applies

 

[fskimospy]

Really,

Stocks Fall as Shares Tied to Economy Retreat - WSJ

Yes, really. Have you seriously never noticed that those articles are basically just fan fiction where the author tries to make a narrative?

For example here’s another article doing the same fan fiction:

Stocks drop amid delta variant concerns — what market analysts are saying

U.S. stocks fell Monday on concerns a rebound in Covid-19 cases would slow global economic growth. Here’s what experts are watching now.

www.cnbc.com

What happened on July 20th?

Value stocks lift Wall St after steep selloff; strong results boost IBM

Wall Street's main indexes jumped on Tuesday, as economically sensitive stocks staged a comeback after a sharp selloff in the previous session, while International Business Machines (IBM) gained on strong second-quarter results.

www.reuters.com

Basically all the losses were erased. Did the delta variant go away? No, if anything it became more significant. The real answer is the writers just made up the reason for July 19th.

Regardless, I supplied you with someone who did a real statistical analysis between GDP and the S&P. There is none. Stock markets and economies are two different things. Now you know, right?

 

[maluckey1]

Yes, really. Have you seriously never noticed that those articles are basically just fan fiction where the author tries to make a narrative?

For example here’s another article doing the same fan fiction:

Stocks drop amid delta variant concerns — what market analysts are saying

U.S. stocks fell Monday on concerns a rebound in Covid-19 cases would slow global economic growth. Here’s what experts are watching now.

www.cnbc.com

What happened on July 20th?

Value stocks lift Wall St after steep selloff; strong results boost IBM

Wall Street's main indexes jumped on Tuesday, as economically sensitive stocks staged a comeback after a sharp selloff in the previous session, while International Business Machines (IBM) gained on strong second-quarter results.

www.reuters.com

Basically all the losses were erased. Did the delta variant go away? No, if anything it became more significant. The real answer is the writers just made up the reason for July 19th.

Regardless, I supplied you with someone who did a real statistical analysis between GDP and the S&P. There is none. Stock markets and economies are two different things. Now you know, right?

You supplied observations of an intertwined social construct/system. About as useful as you want them to be, as are pretty much all social observations and predictions.

Both the Stock Market and the Economy HEAVILY influence the other. Denying that would be not only disingenuous, but a fairy tale in the making. Faith in the investment, US Dollar or stock market is what drives both. This faith is driven on social interactions, and faith in leadership.

They are Siamese twins, separate beings, but inseparable without killing the other.

 

[fskimospy]

You supplied observations of an intertwined social construct/system. About as useful as you want them to be, as are pretty much all social observations and predictions.

Both the Stock Market and the Economy HEAVILY influence the other. Denying that would be not only disingenuous, but a fairy tale in the making. Faith in the investment, US Dollar or stock market is what drives both. This faith is driven on social interactions, and faith in leadership.

They are Siamese twins, separate beings, but inseparable without killing the other.

If they heavily influence each other why is the r^2 of the two essentially zero?

 

[JD50]

Wow Maluckey sure was quick to whip out his E-penis and google-fu

 

[fskimospy]

Wow Maluckey sure was quick to whip out his E-penis and google-fu

I like how quickly he went to ‘but what is the nature of reality anyway’.

Saying wrong things happens to everyone sometimes. One important lesson to learn though is you can often humiliate yourself way more in trying to show how you weren’t wrong than by admitting you were wrong at the start.

 

[ponyo]

Economics is degree in bullshit. Yes, I have BA in Economics.

 

[Paratus]

Economics is degree in bullshit. Yes, I have BA in Economics.

Wouldn't that be a BS in Economics?

 

[cytg111]

I like how quickly he went to ‘but what is the nature of reality anyway’.

Saying wrong things happens to everyone sometimes. One important lesson to learn though is you can often humiliate yourself way more in trying to show how you weren’t wrong than by admitting you were wrong at the start.

Plus, to keep the act up you are probably lying to yourself as well, and thus denying yourself a learning experience. And that is really the biggest tragedy. As I teach my kids, you can lie to your dad, but please dont lie to yourselves, dont sell yourself bullshit.

 

[maluckey1]

If they heavily influence each other why is the r^2 of the two essentially zero?

So You prefer a fairy tale that they aren't heavily reliant on the other? Good for you!

What I was taught is that the economy is made up of many things, but business and stocks are the major portion (I want you to prove me wrong). Consumers and labor are also a large portion and are reliant on .....wait for it.....businesses (many/most larger are publicly traded, so stocks are involved), which...depend on sales etc. About 17-21 percent of the economy in any given recent year comes from government spending etc.

It's a circular system that isn't 1:1 in reaction in dollars or time. Anyone claiming otherwise is dreaming.

 

[ponyo]

Wouldn't that be a BS in Economics?

The only thing useful I got of my Economics degree was the Corporate Finance class I took in college. That taught me the basics about stock options And my Intro to Statistics professor who spent the entire lecture on why no one should buy Yahoo stock on the day Yahoo IPOed. What a joker. He cost me so much money as I wanted to buy Yahoo stock but didn't because of his lecture. But I learned valuable lesson. None of these guys know shit.

 

[fskimospy]

So You prefer a fairy tale that they aren't heavily reliant on the other? Good for you!

What I was taught is that the economy is made up of many things, but business and stocks are the major portion (I want you to prove me wrong). Consumers and labor are also a large portion and are reliant on .....wait for it.....businesses (many/most larger are publicly traded, so stocks are involved), which...depend on sales etc. About 17-21 percent of the economy in any given recent year comes from government spending etc.

It's a circular system that isn't 1:1 in reaction in dollars or time. Anyone claiming otherwise is dreaming.

I already did prove you wrong. Over rolling ten year periods the correlation between the stock market and GDP is near zero.

Now if you have issues with that analysis and want to critique the method or whatever that’s fine, but right now you’re just hand waving because you don’t want to admit you’re wrong.

 

[dank69]

Really,

Stocks Fall as Shares Tied to Economy Retreat - WSJ

lol, this guy believes WSJ headlines that purport to know exactly why the stock market is doing what it happens to be doing at the moment.

 

[fskimospy]

lol, this guy believes WSJ headlines that purport to know exactly why the stock market is doing what it happens to be doing at the moment.

Amazing how they always know what motivates investors immediately after something happens, but never before.

It's almost like they are just totally making it up.

 

[dank69]

Amazing how they always know what motivates investors immediately after something happens, but never before.

It's almost like they are just totally making it up.

You and I have discussed before how they will update the headlines of the exact same article throughout the day as the market changes and is suddenly no longer doing what it was doing that morning.

 

[HomerJS]

My 59oz OJ agrees with you. Hell simply orange I think had taken down to 54...

Most cans of tuna which had been 6oz forever were reduced to 5. I just bought a brand I don't normally buy and it was 4.5oz. Didn't notice until I opened it.

Son of a bitch!

 

[maluckey1]

Amazing how they always know what motivates investors immediately after something happens, but never before.

It's almost like they are just totally making it up.

They are making it up...and it's what I already said...but you didn't listen.

Economic decisions at a national level owe as much to social winds and chance as anything else. Kahneman has done more than a little work on the matter, and other than his Nobel prize in the subject. He must be dumber than you, since he's shown in physical reviews of transactions that many financiers show a negative correlation to their choices...meaning guesses.

Kahneman has also stated in interviews and shown in studies that most all decision making via groups are worse than if an individual made a choice and stuck with it. His opinion of psychology and economics is that while it may describe something after the fact, it's not particularly useful to predict anything.

Kahneman is similar to Feynman in thinking that "social science" isn't science at all, and cannot be adequately proven by current methods. Now, if they are to be believed, then logic follows that using "economic theory" to "prove" economics is an exercise in mental masturbation at best, and tomfoolery at worst. You can't use social science to prove social science. That's just.......making shit up

Keep dreaming

 

[ondma]

Are you saying you want people to make policy changes to address issues that aren’t policy based?

If you are, why? If not, then you agree with me.

I am simply saying, as the saying goes, inflation "is what it is". I never said it was Biden's fault, or even Trumps for that matter. But one still has to pay it when they make a purchase. One cant ignore it simply because it does not fit their agenda that inflation is not a problem. The chip shortage could also continue for a year or more, according to what I have read.

 

[fskimospy]

I am simply saying, as the saying goes, inflation "is what it is". I never said it was Biden's fault, or even Trumps for that matter. But one still has to pay it when they make a purchase. One cant ignore it simply because it does not fit their agenda that inflation is not a problem. The chip shortage could also continue for a year or more, according to what I have read.

Right, but the answer to what to do about it varies hugely based on what the source is.