If fermi flops what happens to Nvidia

[nitromullet]

In the recent past, the graphics division of AMD was the only bit of them that was turning a profit. And I don't think the GPU division's successes with RV700 and RV800 are flukes; I think AMD's strategy is a good one, it's based on sound reasoning given their primary GPU market and backed by solid engineering and design principles, and ATI (if I may call the GPU division that) will go from strength to strength, at least in the short term. Obviously, with parallel design teams, the success of the HD6000 series is anyone's guess, but if AMD follow the principles they have so far, it is looking good.

AMD has already sold off GF, the thing that was dragging them down most; if anything, next to go would be the CPU division.

No disagreement from me, except for that last bit about the cpu division.

 

[sandorski]

Depends

Scenario

1) Fermi flops, but a second generation fixes issues....Nvidia experiences some pain, but at least regains its' footing

2) Fermi flops and can't be fixed. Nvidia experiences lots of pain and struggles for a couple years. Whether it recovers or not is largely outside of its' control and can't be said either way.

edit: This assumes Discrete Vidcard Market only

 

[RussianSensation]

Not sure how accurate these rumours are but here are some pricing info from Maximum PC (although dated February 25, 2010):
http://www.maximumpc.com/article/news/nvidias_geforce_gtx_480_470_will_come_low_supply_high_prices

"As for price, Nvidia is said to be aiming for numbers well above AMD&#8217;s current line. The GTX 470 may retail for $499, and the GTX 480 could go for an eye-popping $680 at launch." <-- I sure hope these are $399 and $499, given the performance rumours.

 

[v8envy]

I sure hope these are $399 and $499, at most.

Why would they be? With an estimated 5000 GTX480 cards there's no reason not to price them sky high. No matter how high the price they'll sell to the right buyer over the next few months while Fermi II bakes.

All indications are this is NOT a mass market product intended to compete with ATI's offering but more of a press edition.

 

[OCGuy]

Why would they be? With an estimated 5000 GTX480 cards there's no reason not to price them sky high. No matter how high the price they'll sell to the right buyer over the next few months while Fermi II bakes.

All indications are this is NOT a mass market product intended to compete with ATI's offering but more of a press edition.

........

http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/17952/34/

There are rumors on all sides of this.

5,000 split up between the partners? Ha.

 

[nitromullet]

........

http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/17952/34/

There are rumors on all sides of this.

5,000 split up between the partners? Ha.

That article sort of contradicts itself doesn't it?

Nvidia to have sufficient GTX 480 at launch

Just be ready to order your card on the first day as they might sell out easily, or be ready to wait a week or two for a second batch.

When something is not sufficient enough, doesn't that make it "insufficient"?

 

[RussianSensation]

Why would they be? With an estimated 5000 GTX480 cards there's no reason not to price them sky high. No matter how high the price they'll sell to the right buyer over the next few months while Fermi II bakes.

Yes in the beginning, but I was talking about MSRP that will settle down after initial demand. If these cards are priced at $600, they would really need to be a solid 40-50% faster than a $380 5870:
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produc...-301-_-Product

I think in BFBC2 - given how well it performs on NV (GTX285) cards, Fermi will be far superior to 5870 series:
http://www.xbitlabs.com/articles/video/display/battlefield-bad-company-2_5.html#sect1

But what about the majority of other games?

 

[OCGuy]

That article sort of contradicts itself doesn't it?





When something is not sufficient enough, doesn't that make it "insufficient"?

Suffficient enough for what? Everyone in the world to have one on launch day? Or enough that the people who are serious about getting them actually get them?

I cant think of a GPU launch that has gone down like the 1st option in recent memory. 5870 was basically a paper launch for 2-4 weeks.

If they sell out on day 1 and get another batch in in 1-14 days, I cant see that being a problem for them.

 

[thilanliyan]

........

http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/17952/34/

There are rumors on all sides of this.

5,000 split up between the partners? Ha.

That link says thousands of cards (not tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands). How's that different from any other rumours?

 

[SlowSpyder]

........

http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/17952/34/

There are rumors on all sides of this.

5,000 split up between the partners? Ha.

That article doesn't say anything other than 'thousands'. 5000 - 10000 would qualify for that. Sounds like Fudzilla is just repeating what Nvidia PR says.


Fud: How many cards will you launch with? Nvidia: Thousands!

All the rumors that actually mention numbers don't paint a very rosey picture. 40nm has been problematic. Fermi is huge. I wouldn't count on tens of thousands of parts.

And if those prices are accurate, I sure hope Nvidia is significantly faster. Though I doubt it will be *that* much faster, not faster by enough to justify it's price.

 

[Chaotic42]

This has not been true for a long time now. The 5700 series are in good stock and the 5870 and 5850 i keep looking at whenever TD has 15 percent bing cashback are always available.

I still can't find any 5970s at Newegg or mwave.

 

[NoQuarter]

I still can't find any 5970s at Newegg or mwave.

here you go
http://www.zipzoomfly.com/jsp/Produc...tCode=10012209

 

[OCGuy]

here you go
http://www.zipzoomfly.com/jsp/produc...tcode=10012209

$800? .......

 

[Keysplayr]

Suffficient enough for what? Everyone in the world to have one on launch day? Or enough that the people who are serious about getting them actually get them?

I cant think of a GPU launch that has gone down like the 1st option in recent memory. 5870 was basically a paper launch for 2-4 weeks.

If they sell out on day 1 and get another batch in in 1-14 days, I cant see that being a problem for them.

Save your breath bud. There's only just over two weeks left. Let everyone who wants GF100 to flop, be hot, power hungry, short of supply, underperforming, overpriced, have their fun.
I mean it's pretty damn obvious a helluva lot of people actually want all these things to come to pass. And in the same breath, they want lower ATI prices. Want, want, want, want.

Time is almost up. Have patience. Don't feed them.

 

[Chaotic42]

here you go
http://www.zipzoomfly.com/jsp/Produc...tCode=10012209

Yeeeeeah.

I'm going to have to go ahead and lock in my answer of "no widespread availability" on the 5970.

 

[thilanliyan]

Let everyone who wants GF100 to flop, be hot, power hungry, short of supply, underperforming, overpriced, have their fun.
I mean it's pretty damn obvious a helluva lot of people actually want all these things to come to pass.

I don't think most people want those things...but most information we have (which isn't a lot unfortunately) points to it being those things (other than performance which I think will be good).

In fact if it IS those things then it won't really push ATI prices down, so I don't think anyone WANTS those things to come true.

 

[NoQuarter]

yea i didn't see the price
I've heard they're more available in stores than online too idk.

 

[nitromullet]

Suffficient enough for what? Everyone in the world to have one on launch day? Or enough that the people who are serious about getting them actually get them?

I cant think of a GPU launch that has gone down like the 1st option in recent memory. 5870 was basically a paper launch for 2-4 weeks.

If they sell out on day 1 and get another batch in in 1-14 days, I cant see that being a problem for them.

Well, it sounds to me like not everyone who is serious will get one on launch day.

8800GTX was a solid launch. I bought a card on launch day, turned to be defective, so I exchanged it for another one at Micro Center. They had more than enough, and that was local retail. The 4000 and GTX 200 series had pretty widespread availability too. I bought two 4850s from Best Buy launch week for $150 each when ATI launched them early, and I don't recall having any difficulty picking up my GTX 280 either.

Fermi sounds like it's going to be like the 8800GT and 5870... A round of launch cards, but not nearly enough to meet even the first wave, and then a drought for a few weeks. I actually got a 5870 the first week they were out, but they were gone after that.

 

[MagickMan]

$800? .......

http://www.atacom.com/program/print_...IDR_GIGA_59_7B

better, but still $55 over retail.

 

[Wag]

http://www.atacom.com/program/print_...IDR_GIGA_59_7B

better, but still $55 over retail.

Retailers tend to vary widely. Newegg had the 5970 one week for $599 then a week or two later it was $100 more.

 

[Keysplayr]

I don't think most people want those things...but most information we have (which isn't a lot unfortunately) points to it being those things (other than performance which I think will be good).

In fact if it IS those things then it won't really push ATI prices down, so I don't think anyone WANTS those things to come true.

Ok, well maybe it's that they are torn then. Some want GF100 to rock and roll in order to bring ATI prices down, but at the same time, don't want GF100 to best their fav?

Those are the vibes I get. I hope you're reading the same forum as I am..

 

[zerocool84]

Ok, well maybe it's that they are torn then. Some want GF100 to rock and roll in order to bring ATI prices down, but at the same time, don't want GF100 to best their fav?

Those are the vibes I get. I hope you're reading the same forum as I am..

Anybody who's a gamer should want Fermi to be faster. If it's not it'll cause ATI to stagnant as well and not make their next stuff much faster.

 

[Kuzi]

I'm sure Fermi will be faster, and hopefully it is released with reasonable prices. If the GTX480 costs $600 and is only 20&#37; faster than 5870, then that's not worth it. But that price would be justified if it's performance is closer to the 5970.

In a few weeks there will be more pressure on NV in the high end, because new "full clocked" 5970 4GB (850Mhz/1200Mhz) cards will be released.

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/video/...earing_Up_to_Release_4GB_Graphics_Boards.html

 

[RussianSensation]

In a few weeks there will be more pressure on NV in the high end, because new "full clocked" 5970 4GB (850Mhz/1200Mhz) cards will be paper launched.

Corrected :awe:

Surely enough though, prices of 5770s are coming down. You can now pick up 2x5770 for $260: http://www.zipzoomfly.com/jsp/Produc...284&amp;ps=homain2

That's faster than a single 5870 for $140 less. Not bad.

 

[Piotrsama]

In a few weeks there will be more pressure on NV in the high end, because new "full clocked" 5970 4GB (850Mhz/1200Mhz) cards will be released.

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/video/...earing_Up_to_Release_4GB_Graphics_Boards.html

But those cards are limited editions.