IDC global smartphone numbers, Q1 2013

[s44]

I'm almost afraid to start this thread. But, here we go.

Note:
(a) BB cratered in share though it "only" fell about 35% in absolute volume from a year ago.
(b) WP more than doubled volume but only inched up from 2% to 3.2% in share.
(c) That's because Android is growing like crazy.

I for one welcome our green robotic overlords.

 

[Owls]

Q2 will be interesting for RIM as they barely launched the Z10 in Q1. That will be the real test for RIMs ability to compete. If they don't make any headway by then I'm pretty sure you could write RIM off by Q4 as a 4th place player.

 

[Red Storm]

Wow 75% of the market, it is ridiculous how fast Android has continued to grow and grow.

 

[jpeyton]

iOS shipments grew 6.6% but marketshare dropped by almost 6%.

 

[Oyeve]

Nice. I hope ios steps up, not that I like ios, I hate it in fact, but I want the competition there so android improves and not go all atari on us.

 

[s44]

I think this chart explains pretty well why the "cheap iPhone" rumors are floating around.

In the US, with non-refuseable subsidies, Apple can use "free" and "$99" i4 and i4S models to serve the lower end of the market. Abroad, especially in the "next 5 billion", it's another story. Not that they'll ever be able to play with the super-low-end Android/WP8 price points, but there's just nothing even in the Nexus 4 price range.

Not to say that Android isn't doing well at the top of the market, of course. But Android is strong everywhere, while Apple has nothing at the bottom and Microsoft has more or less conceded the top. Hence... well, you can look at the overall numbers. (And that's *before* the One and S4 launches.)

 

[Riceninja]

i guess android vs ios is basically going to become this generation's windows vs macintosh

 

[dguy6789]

i guess android vs ios is basically going to become this generation's windows vs macintosh

Yep. I think most people predicted that to be the eventuality way back in 2010.

 

[pantsaregood]

I think this chart explains pretty well why the "cheap iPhone" rumors are floating around.

In the US, with non-refuseable subsidies, Apple can use "free" and "$99" i4 and i4S models to serve the lower end of the market. Abroad, especially in the "next 5 billion", it's another story. Not that they'll ever be able to play with the super-low-end Android/WP8 price points, but there's just nothing even in the Nexus 4 price range.

Not to say that Android isn't doing well at the top of the market, of course. But Android is strong everywhere, while Apple has nothing at the bottom and Microsoft has more or less conceded the top. Hence... well, you can look at the overall numbers. (And that's *before* the One and S4 launches.)

I don't think it is fair to say Microsoft has conceded the top. The Lumia 920 is an excellent flagship.

Anyway, Apple's lack of cheap, unsubsidized phones could potentially become an issue for them. iOS has significant marketshare, but it is only a fraction of Android's. Microsoft may grab a larger portion of marketshare in Q2, as the Lumia 520 is apparently selling fairly well in India; understandable, given that it is an incredible value for its price.

 

[s44]

I don't think it is fair to say Microsoft has conceded the top. The Lumia 920 is an excellent flagship.

It launched at $99 -- the same launch price as the 928.

If Microsoft thought it could go toe to toe with the latest Apple/Samsung flagships, it would price accordingly.

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

iOS shipments grew 6.6% but marketshare dropped by almost 6%.

you're really focused on iOS failing aren't you?

 

[Crono]

i guess android vs ios is basically going to become this generation's windows vs macintosh

Android can get prettier and smoother, but it's hard for iOS to become open.
Once you create your ecosystem as walled garden its very hard to open up the gates.

The Windows vs Mac comparison is an apt one.

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

Android can get prettier and smoother, but it's hard for iOS to become open.
Once you create your ecosystem as walled garden its very hard to open up the gates.

The Windows vs Mac comparison is an apt one.

they're moving in opposite directions. i wouldn't say its that hard. Google's struggling clamping down on its OS and resolving fragmentation. Apple's struggling opening things up.

 

[pantsaregood]

It launched at $99 -- the same launch price as the 928.

If Microsoft thought it could go toe to toe with the latest Apple/Samsung flagships, it would price accordingly.

Of course it can't commercially compete at the moment. Microsoft and Nokia subsidized the phones so heavily because it is very appealing. Marketshare is increasing, so it is working to some degree.

Price is a poor indication of quality. The Lumia 920 is comparable to the Galaxy S3 and iPhone 5 in hardware quality. Take a look at the different iPhone storage options: there's a $100 pricing difference (which is absurd), yet people will still pay for it because Apple is familiar.

No, Microsoft can't compete in the $200+ bracket. Their hardware is good enough, but Samsung and Apple have the marked locked down. Even HTC, LG, and Motorola have trouble at the $200 level.

 

[jpiniero]

The days of the $650 smartphone are numbered. The majority of the market will be $300 and less, and it could go even lower. Apple blew it big time by not getting the iPhone Cheap out by now.

 

[Cogman]

It launched at $99 -- the same launch price as the 928.

If Microsoft thought it could go toe to toe with the latest Apple/Samsung flagships, it would price accordingly.

It isn't about going "toe to toe" Microsoft isn't making HP's mistake. They are trying to get into the market. Even if the phone goes toe to toe you have to price it lower than the competition. Doing anything else is committing suicide.

 

[Puddle Jumper]

I don't think it is fair to say Microsoft has conceded the top. The Lumia 920 is an excellent flagship.

The 920 isn't much of a flagship considering it's literally a year behind on hardware compared to the One and SGS4.

It's almost sad that Microsoft has once again shot themselves in the foot with hardware restrictions. In fact back when Windows Phone 8 launched several of us commented that dual core 720p WP8 devices would end up having to compete with quad core 1080p Android devices this year yet the MS fans insisted Windows Phone wouldn't fall behind on hardware again.

 

[pantsaregood]

The 920 isn't much of a flagship considering it's literally a year behind on hardware compared to the One and SGS4.

It's almost sad that Microsoft has once again shot themselves in the foot with hardware restrictions. In fact back when Windows Phone 8 launched several of us commented that dual core 720p WP8 devices would end up having to compete with quad core 1080p Android devices this year yet the MS fans insisted Windows Phone wouldn't fall behind on hardware again.

The hardware argument falls on its face because the iPhone 5 is Apple's current flagship, and will be for a few more months. I seriously doubt (thought it is possible) that Apple will implement a quad-core CPU in the iPhone 5S.

You're waging a spec-war across different platforms, and that simply doesn't work. Throwing more powerful hardware at phones isn't always of great benefit. Having a large amount of CPU power can help CPU benchmarks tremendously, but phones generally don't perform CPU-intensive tasks.

In Windows Phone 7.x/8 and Android 4.x, the GUI is rendered by the GPU. Web pages are rendered by the GPU in Windows Phone and in a lot of Android browsers. There are plenty of sites that, without GPU rendering, would choke; the fact it is used, however, makes them work perfectly well on either platform.

Games can certainly use large amounts of processing power, but the limiting factor often remains the GPU. There's nothing that current Windows Phones are remotely "slow" at, and the second generation (HTC Titan, Lumia 900, Samsung Focus S) have no trouble working just as well as the Galaxy S2 or iPhone 4S.

1080p support is supposedly coming in GDR3. Regardless, throwing more cores at phones doesn't inherently make them faster.

Also, the Lumia 920 was released around the time of the SGS3 and iPhone 5. The 925 and 928 are simply variants of the 920. When you consider this, the 920 certainly qualifies as a flagship. Nokia and Apple just happen to be behind Samsung's release schedule.

 

[Crono]

The 920 isn't much of a flagship considering it's literally a year behind on hardware compared to the One and SGS4.

It's almost sad that Microsoft has once again shot themselves in the foot with hardware restrictions. In fact back when Windows Phone 8 launched several of us commented that dual core 720p WP8 devices would end up having to compete with quad core 1080p Android devices this year yet the MS fans insisted Windows Phone wouldn't fall behind on hardware again.

Thew new hardware comes at a price. Battery life on the SGS4 and the One are sub 8 hours. When a lot of people work 10, 12, or even 16 hour days, 6-7 hours may not be enough. Especially if you don't have the time to charge/dock your phone in between, or don't want to turn off your phone to swap batteries as with the S4.

WP8 is smooth without needing 4-8 cores, and the display is crisp at 720p on devices like the Lumia 920. Android really needs that 1.7 to 1.9Ghz to feel smooth on a 1080p display, which I think the HTC One (which I have) does right, but some S4 users have noted some lag. The next generation of Windows Phones might benefit from increased cores and clock speeds and a 1080p display, but right now it isn't needed. For the sake of consistency and battery life it may not be terrible that Windows Phones don't have SGS4 specs just yet. Bigger and better batteries on future phones should make 1080p phones more palatable for users who need a full day's worth of battery life.

There's also the heat issue, which the One deals with by having effectively a aluminum heatsink for a back (which warms up your hand fairly nicely during heavy use, lol) and the S4 deals with by overheating or dialing down the display, though not everyone has this issue. At this point I think Microsoft and Apple both don't mind that Android manufacturers are the first to test the waters with 1080p phones, but obviously they can't wait for too long if 1080p phones are what most users want.

 

[s44]

Literally everything in the previous post is wrong.

 

[Crono]

Literally everything in the previous post is wrong.

Yes, "literally".

 

[s44]

Let's laugh at your biggest howler:

Battery life on the SGS4 and the One are sub 8 hours.

That's *of continuous use*, which is frankly awesome. Let's see how everything stacks up.

LOL

 

[Crono]

Let's laugh at your biggest howler:
That's *of continuous use*, which is frankly awesome. Let's see how everything stacks up.

LOL

Exercise reading comprehension before you mock. I wasn't comparing the 920 to the other two, what I was that the 1080p screen and quad core CPUs are a big drain and the current 1080p phones last under 8 hours, and that's with relatively large batteries. Adding a 1080p screen to a current gen Lumia would not be a good idea, not until they can fit a higher cap battery (the 920 is on the heavier side) or otherwise maximize battery life. Nowhere did I say the Lumia 920 got good battery life.

So how again was I wrong? Your chart still shows under 8 hours of battery life for web browsing on the S4, which is what I was referring to. Yes, I meant continuous, because if even if you look at moderate real world usage, you aren't likely to get a full day, not unless you turn down brightness and otherwise minimize application use.

I haven't examined the testing methodology for GSMArena, but I'm assuming their test are reliable and thorough. But just going by their HTC One number, well, that's off in my own testing. I can get 6 to 7 hours of browsing. Do they turn down brightness to minimum? What exactly are their test settings? Their numbers seem to be on the optimistic side. There's no way I'm getting 10 hours of video playback (are they using 1080p video? What player? Bitrate? Codec? Maybe I'm just missing the link or information) on my One.
The AnandTech battery benches seem more on the mark, though they didn't update the article with the latest S4 update.

Please proceed to LOLing at the "literally everything" that was wrong in my post.

 

[Phokus]

they're moving in opposite directions. i wouldn't say its that hard. Google's struggling clamping down on its OS and resolving fragmentation. Apple's struggling opening things up.

Fragmentation isn't an issue anymore

 

[Riceninja]

Exercise reading comprehension before you mock. I wasn't comparing the 920 to the other two, what I was that the 1080p screen and quad core CPUs are a big drain and the current 1080p phones last under 8 hours, and that's with relatively large batteries. Adding a 1080p screen to a current gen Lumia would not be a good idea, not until they can fit a higher cap battery (the 920 is on the heavier side) or otherwise maximize battery life. Nowhere did I say the Lumia 920 got good battery life.

So how again was I wrong? Your chart still shows under 8 hours of battery life for web browsing, which is what I was referring to. Yes, I meant continuous, because if even if you look at moderate real world usage, you aren't likely to get a full day, not unless you turn down brightness and otherwise minimize application use.

I haven't examined the testing methodology for GSMArena, but I'm assuming their test are reliable and thorough. But just going by their HTC One number, well, that's off in my own testing. I can get 6 to 7 hours of browsing. Do they turn down brightness to minimum? What exactly are their test settings?

Please proceed to LOLing at the "literally everything" that was wrong in my post.

so what you're saying is that android flagship on top specs have bad battery life and cant get through a day, yet conceding that WP8 phones with old specs have even worse battery life? im confused as to the point you're trying to make here.

and the only reason WP8 is smooth and crisp on 720p is because its entire UI is nothing but flat colored tiles.