I wasn't freaking out about Ebola until the Dallas woman

[WelshBloke]

Not really. In fact it's probably less than 1000. this gives a fair explation.

Isn't that a bit like "gunshots don't cause many deaths, it's the massive blood loss afterwards"?

 

[CottonRabbit]

Not true. As long as the patient is appropriately placed in droplet precautions (as ordered by well, whomever, whether triage nurse/physician picks it up, or another physician) it doesn't matter what the ailment is. Droplet is droplet. There's no "ebola specific" knowledge necessary. The survey makes it seems as if nurses are lacking some intensive training necessary to combat this scourge - simply not true. Ebola patients get droplet precautions - end of education.

This. Any US hospital should be able to handle an ebola patient. It's far, far, far less contagious than something like tuberculosis, which every hospital should be able to deal with.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Isn't that a bit like "gunshots don't cause many deaths, it's the massive blood loss afterwards"?

Not really. The statistics are gathered from death certificates and they aren't bound to the same requirements as a science based study or the same as being applied to Ebola. The statistics you found would have been for influenza AND pneumonia. It makes no rigorous distinction between primary and contributory factors. You might die of something completely unrelated to flu and be counted in the stats. It's poorly done.

 

[werepossum]

hahaha HAHAHAHA!!!!

let me clear some things up for you guys......considering, i live and work in the metroplex, and as a matter of fact, i was downtown and at the state fair the day this all came out...


first off...... dallas, is POOR AS FUCK...maybe not the city itself, but the people here.. it's a shitfest, the state fair, was literally a shitfest.... the homeless problem here is so completely out of control, after we left the fair, we caught the train deeper downtown and into deep ellum, and it was chaos, SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO many homeless people, SOOOOOOOOOO many people getting arrested leaving the fair, and the way it works here, when there's cops taking someone down to the ground, Texans, just look the other way, you dont film the cops. this is Dallas fucking Texas... they will come after you next if you do.... that vid of them spraying the vomit/bodily fluids off the sidewalk with a pressure washer..... i believe it... i dont doubt it one bit.....that's typical texan mentality, "clean it up quick, out of sight out of mind, and sweep it all under the rug...

Dallas IS a place where this really could turn into an epidemic... and with as hard as it is to get to a hospital as it is (or private doctors that refuse to accept medicaid/medicare, anything but cash pay only) because we're such a hardcore right wingbat shit crazy state..... yeah.... i could completely see infected people avoiding going to the doctor/ER, could totally see familys hiding sick family members/dead family members

Well, I certainly hope you remembered to put your money in your socks first. 'Cause women in Deep Ellum, they'll put you on the rocks.

Meanwhile...

Obama decries income inequality in speech after $50,000-a-person fundraiser for Quinn

F-king Schmuck indeed.

lol +1

If we see more cases pop up in American then we can start panicking. But I find it interesting that they are trying so hard to downplay the seriousness of this. Must nurses have already reported though that they are not equipped on how to handle triage with possible ebola cases. It has been all over the news. Nurses coming out and saying that the hospitals are not giving them any real protocols or educating them. The fact that they didn't even bother to take in the fact that this guy in Dallas was from Liberia and traveled is very disconcerting to say the least. It's like hospital staff have become lazy and if they are dealing with someone who is of color they certainly don't take what they say about being ill very serious. Most times sending people of color back home.

That's the only troubling possibility to me, that we'll unroll a system of containment about which Nigeria could only dream - but no one will bother actually training or even informing the people who actually have contact with the infected.

 

[shira]

They predict 10,000 deaths in Africa by the end of the year, now it's in the US.

If the CDC came out and said "this is bad news, we need to take extreme measures to stop this now before it gets out of hand - you should be worried and cautious" then we would have a panic, run on banks, run on food, resources, etc. So the CDC isn't going to say it, even though they do understand and are behaving like, we're in danger.

Obama is sending 4,000 troops (not civilians from DHS or some other group) to Africa. Soldiers. With rifles. To Africa. With Rifles. With Rifles.

Yeah, nothing to fear.

The doubling rate is every 21 days. There are 86 days to the end of the year. Currently, there are about 3500 deaths from Ebola. So that means 3500 * 2**（86/21） = 60，000 deaths in Africa by year's end. And considering that it's currently assumed that the under-reporting rate is a factor of about 2.5, the actual number of dead will likely be closer to 150,000.

 

[doubledeluxe]

I think we must have been talking about two different issues, so I'll explain myself. There have been a few people who have been pushing an agenda about health care systems. To make their point of how ours is so inferior they bring up Europe and how we must fear (and that's what irks me) because we aren't as good as they are. Rick Perry will be the cause of a mass plague, I kid you not. Well there are aspects of other health care systems which have advantages, however like ebola the complexities and subtleties of the subject elude them. That does not mean they won't try anyway. When you showed the severity of the illness after I had responded to another I mistakenly assumed you were trying to make their case because that's something I would expect from the "usual suspects" as I think of them.

Anyway, to be clear their point was that since we're so bad compared to virtually every other first world nation we're doomed to have a higher incidence of disease. That was an argument they should have not tried because a cursory examination of the 2009 pandemic shows a higher incidence of infection than the US, and if ebola was bound to spread because we're so bad then a disease that's far more likely spread should have done so and by a startling difference. To the contrary we fared better than most and that's because the factors which influence transmission do not conform to their political sensibilities. I greatly dislike using fear to promote an agenda. As far as the relatively low mortality rate there are a variety of possible reasons, including such things as having immunized a large portion of those who were at the greatest risk as well as the differences in the state of medicine and awareness of the issue. It's an interesting subject all on it's own and I admit I haven't followed all the strings to tie them up.

Ok...wikipedia.

As of mid-March 2010, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that about 59 million Americans contracted the H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died.[118]

Europe on the other hand had 500,000 cases and 7,860 deaths.

Now I'm no expert but if we're talking about this with respect to Ebola it's not the mortality difference that scares me but the rate of transmission. The 2009 pandemic started in Mexico giving us a clear disadvantage but lets just look at these numbers: 59,000,000 vs 500,000

Europe is far more densely populated and has many more people to boot.

Will be interesting to see what happens. There was some ridiculous comment a while back that only 5 hospitals were prepared. There was an article this morning about 87% of US hospitals not being prepared. Then there's the anecdotal evidence of me going to the hospital in many nations and the US ones being incredibly overcrowded and downright scary when you really need them. I get the whole idea of trauma prioritization but it seems that our emergency rooms are incredibly understaffed. The emergency room in the US is the worst I have ever seen. I have had to go to the hospital in remote places like Zimbabwe and Nepal and I got better and more prompt service there. Emergency rooms in most of Europe are quite impressive. The only saving grace the US has is that our equipment is top notch and I am always confident that they will test for everything and find what's truly wrong. Nonetheless I don't want to be there when 500 Ebola cases are all waiting in the emergency rooms around the country or still going to work.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Europe on the other hand had 500,000 cases and 7,860 deaths.

Now I'm no expert but if we're talking about this with respect to Ebola it's not the mortality difference that scares me but the rate of transmission. The 2009 pandemic started in Mexico giving us a clear disadvantage but lets just look at these numbers: 59,000,000 vs 500,000

Haste is the enemy of precision and that's on me.

OK, let's back up a bit. Overall the US and Europe were close. If the US were an EU member we would have been near the top of those who fared best. The problem is with how numbers are reported and the criteria used and frankly that's highly suspect in all nations. I'll round here.

In the US- 60,000,000 infected 12k die.
EU 500,000 infected- 8k die.

Look at the fatality rates. Virtually no one in the Europe should have died. Less than 1% of the cases but 3/4 the numbers of deaths.

As for the rest, the US health care system needs serious overhaul, and I'm a radical on that, but not a liberal in the sense that I believe handing the system over to politicians who pander for votes and power have the ability to make the changes. That's another topic.

Well off to work.

 

[doubledeluxe]

I'd have to crawl through my bookmarks but there was something I read where they said that the US stopped counting cases after a certain point. How accurate these numbers are is difficult to say. I looked at the state and country breakdowns and the thing that surprised me about ALL of them was that the mortality rate of H1N1 was less than 1% yet 1-3% of the reported cases were dying. That leads me to believe that the actual number of cases was MUCH higher.

With Ebola we should worry about this 1 case turning into 5 and then 500 and then 5000 because the mortality rate is over 60% with treatment and 70% without treatment. It spreads quite easily. I'll say it again though our culture of going to work when sick because we either have to or can't afford to take time off is the real threat. If I'm sick elsewhere I call in to work and don't go in without fear of losing my job (unions) and with plenty of sick days. Then there's simply the emergency rooms. I can't speak on behalf of ER's in all states but the southern ones, by the border, are in a sad state. Really sad. It's not uncommon to spend hours in there waiting to see a nurse. So now who are they going to treat? The gunshot wound, the car accident, or the guy with a fever? Sure once things are terrible they'll have no choice but to prioritize the flu like symptoms but what about now? How many cases will there have to be before priorities shift and resources are allocated to take care of the problem?

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

I'd have to crawl through my bookmarks but there was something I read where they said that the US stopped counting cases after a certain point. How accurate these numbers are is difficult to say. I looked at the state and country breakdowns and the thing that surprised me about ALL of them was that the mortality rate of H1N1 was less than 1% yet 1-3% of the reported cases were dying. That leads me to believe that the actual number of cases was MUCH higher.

With Ebola we should worry about this 1 case turning into 5 and then 500 and then 5000 because the mortality rate is over 60% with treatment and 70% without treatment. It spreads quite easily. I'll say it again though our culture of going to work when sick because we either have to or can't afford to take time off is the real threat. If I'm sick elsewhere I call in to work and don't go in without fear of losing my job (unions) and with plenty of sick days. Then there's simply the emergency rooms. I can't speak on behalf of ER's in all states but the southern ones, by the border, are in a sad state. Really sad. It's not uncommon to spend hours in there waiting to see a nurse. So now who are they going to treat? The gunshot wound, the car accident, or the guy with a fever? Sure once things are terrible they'll have no choice but to prioritize the flu like symptoms but what about now? How many cases will there have to be before priorities shift and resources are allocated to take care of the problem?

I understand your concern about our culture and agree. I'm taking a moment to reply but I myself cannot take my legally permitted uninterrupted lunch without being punished. We're insane. Nevertheless EBOV will be handled somewhat diffently. I think we need to check laws but powers are granted for emergencies. Take hazardous weather for example. Roads can be closed and that would prohibit showing up for most jobs.

 

[zephyrprime]

Yeah, that's what we keep hearing, but even so you keep seeing people who understand the disease and the danger (like the NBC camera guy) get infected.... the numbers of infected grow quickly, so it must not be THAT hard to get infected. Thank God it's not as easy to spread/catch as the cold or flu, but it's not near-impossible either.

Yes. The evidence contradicts the known science. It would not surprise me if we're dealing with a new mutant strain that is transmitted more easily than previous outbreaks. After all, previous outbreaks received less attention and less resources but were much much smaller. This current outbreak is bigger than all previous outbreaks put together. This strain MUST have some new capabilities.

 

[fskimospy]

Yes. The evidence contradicts the known science. It would not surprise me if we're dealing with a new mutant strain that is transmitted more easily than previous outbreaks. After all, previous outbreaks received less attention and less resources but were much much smaller. This current outbreak is bigger than all previous outbreaks put together. This strain MUST have some new capabilities.

It definitely does not need to have any new capabilities. Prior outbreaks were in geographically isolated regions while this one is not.

 

[OutHouse]

 

[JTsyo]

Don't you come in here with your fancy graphics and science. I saw Outbreak. As soon as ebola hit our shores, we guaranteed fully 90% of our population would become infected. Baseless paranoia will always triumph over logic or reason.

Seems to me that a R0 above 1 means everyone will get it. At 2, it only takes about 28 cycles to get to about 300 million.
2^ 28 = ~268 million

 

[JTsyo]

Just to keep things in perspective we still have exactly one confirmed case of Ebola in the US.

Don't forget all the other pandemic scares we've had: SARS, bird flu, West Nile virus, Swine Flu and such. It's better to be prepared than not but it has to be constructive.

 

[Pens1566]

Case in Spain now. http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/06/health/ebola-us/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Nurses Assistant treating one of the patients that was transported out of W. Africa.

 

[WelshBloke]

The plague in Spain falls mainly on the inadequately protected health worker.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

The plague in Spain falls mainly on the inadequately protected health worker.

This can't be. It must be more RICK PERRY LIES!!

 

[WelshBloke]

This can't be. It must be more RICK PERRY LIES!!

I'm sure there must be some way to blame him. :hmm:

He hasn't been off for a quick paella trip recently has he?

 

[MrCassdin]

 

[MongGrel]

Hey now we have Marburg poping up and it has like a 80%-90% mortality rate.

Woopee.

What is Marburg, the Ebola-like virus that killed a health-care worker in Uganda?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...s-that-killed-a-health-care-worker-in-uganda/


Maybe they can start dating each other and have offsping

Seems to be a trend here atm, don't ya think ?

 

[massmedia]

This. Any US hospital should be able to handle an ebola patient. It's far, far, far less contagious than something like tuberculosis, which every hospital should be able to deal with.

i think you guys are missing the crux of the issue.
it doesn't matter if the hospotal is equipped to handle Ebola if the front line workers do not have a crystal clear understanding of what to do when presented with a potential Ebola patoent.

if the nurses dont have a perfect understanding of how to recognize potential cases (and more importantly how not to miss recognizing potential cases) then the result will be a cluster#### rather than an orderly and appropriate handling of patients. when pople think they don't know what to do in a stressful situation their actions will be unpredictable.

that article said that the nurses themselves fealt unprepared. that is a big problem and flies in the face of "everything is under control"

teach 1st line responders how to handle the patients and then you can start to talk about under control... but not before

 

[werepossum]

i think you guys are missing the crux of the issue.
it doesn't matter if the hospotal is equipped to handle Ebola if the front line workers do not have a crystal clear understanding of what to do when presented with a potential Ebola patoent.

if the nurses dont have a perfect understanding of how to recognize potential cases (and more importantly how not to miss recognizing potential cases) then the result will be a cluster#### rather than an orderly and appropriate handling of patients. when pople think they don't know what to do in a stressful situation their actions will be unpredictable.

that article said that the nurses themselves fealt unprepared. that is a big problem and flies in the face of "everything is under control"

teach 1st line responders how to handle the patients and then you can start to talk about under control... but not before

Agreed. This needs to be happening now; those making policy can always pat themselves on the back later.

However, the Ebollapocalypse is still not on my list of Things to worry about.

 

[TheSlamma]

Do any of you people personally know any doctors and asked them about their thoughts?

Seriously stop getting all of your information from the tinfoil hats here and the sensationalist news.

 

[TheVrolok]

i think you guys are missing the crux of the issue.
it doesn't matter if the hospotal is equipped to handle Ebola if the front line workers do not have a crystal clear understanding of what to do when presented with a potential Ebola patoent.

if the nurses dont have a perfect understanding of how to recognize potential cases (and more importantly how not to miss recognizing potential cases) then the result will be a cluster#### rather than an orderly and appropriate handling of patients. when pople think they don't know what to do in a stressful situation their actions will be unpredictable.

that article said that the nurses themselves fealt unprepared. that is a big problem and flies in the face of "everything is under control"

teach 1st line responders how to handle the patients and then you can start to talk about under control... but not before

Not trying to offend anyone here, but nurses don't have a "crystal clear" understanding of what to do when presented with a multitude of patients because, well, that's not their role. Like I said earlier, Ebola is no different than say.. Meningitis when it comes to nursing protocol (in regard to infection control). There's no big "teaching" necessary, Ebola is droplet. The symptoms present similarly to other ailments that are droplet, there's nothing new here. /discussion.

 

[TheVrolok]

Do any of you people personally know any doctors and asked them about their thoughts?

Seriously stop getting all of your information from the tinfoil hats here and the sensationalist news.

Ask people with actual knowledge... And then be receptive to their opinions? Are you mad? We have uninformed sensational mass media for that!