I think we all know it.

[Shamrock]

Sasse said he would convict.

 

[uclaLabrat]

Murkowski is probable

 

[woolfe9998]

I've read that 10 are confirmed to favor conviction. There are others possible. Such as McConnell. I tend to doubt they'll convict but it's possible. Will depend entirely on the political calculus of various GOP senators.

 

[Heartbreaker]

I've read that 10 are confirmed to favor conviction. There are others possible. Such as McConnell. I tend to doubt they'll convict but it's possible. Will depend entirely on the political calculus of various GOP senators.

I'd like to see where your read that. I've only read of 3 being likely.

 

[BoomerD]

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trump-conviction-republican-votes.html

There's a metric fuck-ton of speculation in the article, but the author brings up some valid points about who MIGHT vote for conviction...and who definitely won't.

 

[Sunburn74]

I think it'd be a 50/50 proposition particularly if the trial is held long after he's out of office.

Most likely what will happen is he'll be prosecuted for all sorts of crimes once he's out of office and by the time it comes to voting on impeachment it'll just be too much.

 

[woolfe9998]

I'd like to see where your read that. I've only read of 3 being likely.

I don't recall. It was more than one article. I also think the word "confirmed" is incorrect. The articles said something like favored or probable.

 

[Heartbreaker]

I don't recall. It was more than one article. I also think the word "confirmed" is incorrect. The articles said something like favored or probable.

I think you might get up to 10 possibles, of which you get half to convict.

There is a rounding error above 0% chance of conviction.

 

[BoomerD]

I think you might get up to 10 possibles, of which you get half to convict.

There is a rounding error above 0% chance of conviction.

Yeah, I don't think it will happen...doesn't stop me from HOPING it does...

(I don't think I'd put any money of the odds though)

 

[dawp]

You would be lucky to get 6.

well we did get 10 in the house to vote along with all the dems

 

[Heartbreaker]

well we did get 10 in the house to vote along with all the dems

That was about 5% of House Republicans. 5% of Senate Republicans = 3 (rounding up).

 

[eelw]

Attendance is mandatory for the impeachment trial. Only reason why all the Dems running to be the nominee were there. So unless there are a bunch of GOP gravely sick with Covid, the 2/3rd present is a pipedream.

And the ball is in Moscow Mitch's court. If he wants to erase the orange stain from the party, he'll get the remaining votes to convict.

 

[JEDIYoda]

The fact of the matter is, the Senate itself has agreed that a 2/3 supermajority vote is required to convict. I highly doubt that will change anytime soon.

"In the case of presidential impeachment trials, the chief justice of the United States presides. The Constitution requires a two-thirds vote of the Senate to convict, and the penalty for an impeached official upon conviction is removal from office. "

U.S. Senate: Impeachment

www.senate.gov

.

The fact of the matter is there is nothing in writing to support what you are saying!

 

[JEDIYoda]

Yes, understood. But they need a 3/4 vote of present members.

Not 3/4 of the chamber present and a simple majority vote.

you have it all wrong

 

[JEDIYoda]

Attendance is mandatory for the impeachment trial. Only reason why all the Dems running to be the nominee were there. So unless there are a bunch of GOP gravely sick with Covid, the 2/3rd present is a pipedream.

And the ball is in Moscow Mitch's court. If he wants to erase the orange stain from the party, he'll get the remaining votes to convict.

not true!!
Are all U.S. Senators required to attend the impeachment ...

https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/49496/

...
2 No, there is no requirement for Senators to attend an Impeachment Trial, however only those in attendance are allowed to vote on the verdict. Conviction requires a 2/3rds majority (Rounded Up) of all Senators in attendance, not of all Senators overall, and additionally has no quorum requirements.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Mitchikov says voting for/against conviction is a matter of conscience and since the GOP has none of that, well ....

 

[Muse]

Don't you need 2/3rds of the senate to convict?

Edit: There is a question of whether or not you need 2/3rds of all senators or 2/3rds of present sentors though.

Present.

 

[Muse]

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trump-conviction-republican-votes.html

There's a metric fuck-ton of speculation in the article, but the author brings up some valid points about who MIGHT vote for conviction...and who definitely won't.

I think McConnell holds the anti-Trump card considerably. If he comes through on his "we gotta wrest the GOP from Trump" mantra, it's possible he could pull enough senators with him to reach the 2/3 needed. A few senators who might lack the will/courage/conviction to vote "yea" may just "stay home," but it's 2/3 of those present that decides.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Present.

OK, Tulsi.

 

[Commodus]

I've heard more than once that it will really come down to what McConnell wants. If he sees Trump as a threat to the future of the party and decides to convict, he'll marshall enough votes. Heck, he may arrange to 'conveniently' have enough Republicans absent that the Democrats secure a conviction without many GOP members voting in favor. He accomplishes his goal without Trumpist candidates wielding the "Senator X voted against our lord and savior Trump" in campaigns.

 

[Heartbreaker]

I've heard more than once that it will really come down to what McConnell wants. If he sees Trump as a threat to the future of the party and decides to convict, he'll marshall enough votes. Heck, he may arrange to 'conveniently' have enough Republicans absent that the Democrats secure a conviction without many GOP members voting in favor. He accomplishes his goal without Trumpist candidates wielding the "Senator X voted against our lord and savior Trump" in campaigns.

Republicans voting to impeach Trump will kill them in the next election. It's an admission of guilt for all those who perpetuated the Big Lie.

Instead a large segment will double down on the Big Lie, because their base wants to believe the Big lie. They will fund raise on the Big Lie, start their own version of the Big Lie on every election cycle. Another segment will just completely ignore the big lie, and a tiny segment will repudiate the Big Lie and become pariahs in their own party.

There is essentially ZERO chance of conviction.

McConnell is just playing everyone, with his "leak" about supporting impeachment. He gets back at Trump by making him sweat that he might get convicted and lose his Presidential perks, he'll have Trump sweating right up until the Vote, and that might take months. He gets the democrats to waste precious time on an unwinnable trial, by letting them think there is a chance, if only they work hard enough, and long enough. Potential months of Biden's 24 month window wasted.

It's the perfect Machiavellian win-win.