I think that we need a Coronavirus Poll on when the quarantine ends in the US!

[jpiniero]

I wonder what will happen in November when it's deemed unsafe to have an election. I would love to be wrong about all of this, but only time will tell.

What I've heard is that only Congress can change the date. Getting both the House and Senate to agree to move it, let alone to when, is impossible.

 

[ultimatebob]

Doubt it will be resolved to any extent this year.

-KeithP

Do you really think that the quarantine can last that long, though? I think that people will get fed up and start ignoring the rules after a few weeks of this. You're going to end up with speakeasies near where closed bars used to be, and people offering things like haircuts from their homes.

 

[Platypus]

Do you really think that the quarantine can last that long, though? I think that people will get fed up and start ignoring the rules after a few weeks of this. You're going to end up with speakeasies near where closed bars used to be, and people offering things like haircuts from their homes.

When the photos of bodies start hitting the mainstream, I don't think people will have the luxury of saying it won't happen in their backyard anymore.

 

[ultimatebob]

When the photos of bodies start hitting the mainstream, I don't think people will have the luxury of saying it won't happen in their backyard anymore.

Yeah, but those bodies are mostly going to be older folks. I've already heard this being referred to as the "boomer remover" virus on Reddit.

Folks under 30 will still think that they are invincible and will probably continue to party.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

It'll end whenever an effective anti-viral can be prescribed to the mass population - something that at least makes this no more lethal than the flu.

 

[Platypus]

Yeah, but those bodies are mostly going to be older folks. I've already heard this being referred to as the "boomer remover" virus on Reddit.

Folks under 30 will still think that they are invincible and will probably continue to party.

That's what the data suggests elsewhere, but surprisingly, in the US the most affected group is 30-50 year olds. I've seen a lot of younger people getting it too. Likely because our failure of a government thinks if we don't have high numbers that everything is fine, we don't have a lot of good US data on the spread and likely won't. It will be up to individual states to deal with this mess themselves and self-report numbers.

I think we'll find out a lot about the future of this country in the next two weeks.

 

[Sonikku]

Everything I'm hearing is that it doesn't go away until there's a mass produced vaccine that is safe for everyone. And that is at least a year away.

I'm having a hard time convincing the people locally that are convinced this will all blow over by April/May.

 

[KeithP]

Do you really think that the quarantine can last that long, though? I think that people will get fed up and start ignoring the rules after a few weeks of this. You're going to end up with speakeasies near where closed bars used to be, and people offering things like haircuts from their homes.

I think the bulk of the restrictions will still be in place at least through the end of the year. Whether people follow them or not is a separate issue that I wasn't addressing.

-KeithP

 

[highland145]

What really matters...

It's going to be @shortylickens vs @lxskllr at the end. Poll needs new options.

😀

 

[highland145]

Yeah, but those bodies are mostly going to be older folks. I've already heard this being referred to as the "boomer remover" virus on Reddit.

Folks under 30 will still think that they are invincible and will probably continue to party.

Princess ship is the only reliable mass testing we have.

I could be wrong.

Imagine that?

 

[ultimatebob]

I find it amusing that people are still posting the "15 days to cut the spread" posts from the CDC, even though we're half way through that 15 day period and the virus is still spreading. It's pretty obvious that this is going to go on for at least a month or more.

Our poll seems to be leaning towards late May, early June as a average for the quartenine to be over.

 

[clamum]

I'll go with three weeks but I hope it's not that long. Whatevs I can work from home and have food and whatnot. Just want things back to normal.

 

[Sonikku]

I'll go with three weeks but I hope it's not that long. Whatevs I can work from home and have food and whatnot. Just want things back to normal.

There's no way in hell life is going back to normal in three weeks. Four to five months? Maybe, if a miracle happens.

 

[clamum]

There's no way in hell life is going back to normal in three weeks. Four to five months? Maybe, if a miracle happens.

 

[ultimatebob]

Looks like the poll is closed... If I was going to take a estimate from the poll options that were voted on here in mid March, I'd guess that the quarantine was going to end around the middle to end of June.

 

[ultimatebob]

So... how is everybody feeling about their guesses so far? On point, or way off?

Adding schools to the list was a bad move, considering my May 15th guess. At least 5 states must have canceled school for the rest of the school year by now.

 

[MtnMan]

Quarantine is not the correct description, but 'stay home' orders with restrictions on gatherings, restaurants, etc., etc., The question is who will lift the restrictions, politicians based on agenda, or medical people based on sound practices and common sense.

Trump still won't implement stay at home, dodging responsibility himself, but he will be crowing for governors/mayors to lift it probably before May 1st.

 

[ondma]

Quarantine is not the correct description, but 'stay home' orders with restrictions on gatherings, restaurants, etc., etc., The question is who will lift the restrictions, politicians based on agenda, or medical people based on sound practices and common sense.

Trump still won't implement stay at home, dodging responsibility himself, but he will be crowing for governors/mayors to lift it probably before May 1st.

He is playing with his usual deflecting tactics. If he drops the nationwide distancing rules (technically the stay at home orders are all state or local issued) he can claim he is trying to get the country back to normal but the governors (particularly democrats) are blocking him. If he opens up the country too early and the virus returns big time, he can still blame the governors, saying each state needs to make its own rules. I dont think this later tactic will be very effective though.

 

[nakedfrog]

I'm still sticking with July 31th (sic), since school here starts in mid-late August and parents will be going insane by then.

 

[Staples]

We'll have a phased approach.

I can see things begin to ease within 2 months.

 

[allisolm]

Yeah, but those bodies are mostly going to be older folks. I've already heard this being referred to as the "boomer remover" virus on Reddit.

Folks under 30 will still think that they are invincible and will probably continue to party.

The deaths may be higher among the elderly, but the number of cases in my county and in FL as a whole, anecdotal as the info may be, are not. We have 98 cases in the county and our mean age is 44 and the daily stats tend to look like this (stats for Apr 10):

28 year old Male
46 year old Male
26 year old Female
64 year old Female
14 year old Female
43 year old Female
70 year old Female
39 year old Male
55 year old Male
48 year old Female

The largest number of cases in FL (home of the elderly) falls in the 45-54 age bracket while the deaths do fall mostly in the elderly brackets (as of Apr 3).

Coronavirus in Florida updates: Reported COVID-19 deaths rise by 18% as statewide cases break 10,000

The number of Florida patients to die of COVID-19 complications is now 144, with 43 deaths added to the total Thursday.

www.naplesnews.com

If FL new case numbers continue in the pattern of the last nine days, we may be getting better here.Let's hope so.

Experience

experience.arcgis.com

 

[K1052]

He is playing with his usual deflecting tactics. If he drops the nationwide distancing rules (technically the stay at home orders are all state or local issued) he can claim he is trying to get the country back to normal but the governors (particularly democrats) are blocking him. If he opens up the country too early and the virus returns big time, he can still blame the governors, saying each state needs to make its own rules. I dont think this later tactic will be very effective though.

This is exactly the plan. Each state has been left to it's own to manage out of the lockdown without any coordinated strategy or resources from the Feds to do it. Of course somehow Trump thinks that by not doing anything he can avoid the blame when the virus inevitably starts spiking again in places that can't do this for themselves effectively or simply aren't even willing to try. This approach will only prolong the physical and economic suffering.

All the countries that have managed to even partially emerge from lockdown or avoided it all together have robust testing and contact tracing systematically deployed. We've got neither really at the scale and distribution required to manage like they have.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

The deaths may be higher among the elderly, but the number of cases in my county and in FL as a whole, anecdotal as the info may be, are not. We have 98 cases in the county and our mean age is 44 and the daily stats tend to look like this (stats for Apr 10):

28 year old Male
46 year old Male
26 year old Female
64 year old Female
14 year old Female
43 year old Female
70 year old Female
39 year old Male
55 year old Male
48 year old Female

The largest number of cases in FL (home of the elderly) falls in the 45-54 age bracket while the deaths do fall mostly in the elderly brackets (as of Apr 3).

Coronavirus in Florida updates: Reported COVID-19 deaths rise by 18% as statewide cases break 10,000

The number of Florida patients to die of COVID-19 complications is now 144, with 43 deaths added to the total Thursday.

www.naplesnews.com

If FL new case numbers continue in the pattern of the last nine days, we may be getting better here.Let's hope so.

Experience

experience.arcgis.com

The problem is it's hard to know what these numbers really reflect. It's safe to assume that those in their 70's are more likely to succumb to infection but this is also the demographic which lives in close quarters at nursing homes and so they are trapped like people on a ship. These sorts of things complicate the understanding of the situation in detail. Yeah, Captain Obvious 😉

 

[allisolm]

The problem is it's hard to know what these numbers really reflect. It's safe to assume that those in their 70's are more likely to succumb to infection but this is also the demographic which lives in close quarters at nursing homes and so they are trapped like people on a ship. These sorts of things complicate the understanding of the situation in detail. Yeah, Captain Obvious 😉

However, if the cases of elderly living in nursing homes were eliminated from the accounting, the ages of positive cases would skew even more towards the younger population.

 

[ultimatebob]

Ya know, my estimate of May 15th for stores, businesses, and restaurants reopening was pretty close to being right. Schools? Not so much.

Looks like the people who picked September will be the winning choice in this poll.