Discussion I personally do not think Texas will be won by the Democrats for the next 25 to 30 years, even without the proposed restictive voting laws.

[Amol S.]

In my honest opinion, I do not think Texas would end up going to the Democrats in any election for the next 25 to 30 years, regardless if the proposed restrictive voting laws were to be enacted or not. My opinion is based of the voting trend of 8 populous counties, out of which none are considered to be suburban areas of and nor are the 5 well known counties in Texas (ex. Harris, Tarrant, ect.). The 8 counties that I am referring to, have never voted for Democrats in decades; some of the 8 counties even voted for the Republican candidate in the 1964 Presidential Election. The name of the 8 counties that I am referring to are Lubbock, Randall, Midland, Taylor, Ector, Bowie, Angelina, and Potter Counties.

If you were to look into the voting history of Lubbock County, the most populous of the 8 counties, even with it's growing population the number of Republican voters is growing at a similar rate to the rate of increase in the number of Democrat voters. This trend can also be seen in the other 7 counties. In the 2016 Presidential Election in Lubbock County, 65651 (66.3%) of votes were for Trump, 28023 (28.3%) of votes were for Hillary Clinton, and 5339 (5.4%) were for third parties. In the 2020 Presidential Election in the same county, 78861 (65.3%) of votes were for Trump, 40017 (33.1%) of votes were for Biden, and 1939 (1.6%) votes went to third parties. This was just one of the 8 counties. Basically the rate of change is very slow in these counties, even with their booming cities.

Biden lost the state to Trump by a margin of 631,221 votes. If the margins of how much Biden lost the 8 counties were to be totaled, it would amount to 201,623 votes. That is approximately 32% of the number of votes that caused Trump to outrun Biden in Texas. The cumulative margin of 201,623 votes is almost 22% as much as the number of votes Biden received in Harris county, the county where Houston is.

I got the information above and bellow from Wikipedia.

Lubbock County

Presidential election results[10] Year Republican Democratic Third parties 2020 65.3% 78,861 33.1% 40,017 1.6% 1,939 2016 66.3% 65,651 28.3% 28,023 5.4% 5,339 2012 69.6% 63,469 28.8% 26,271 1.6% 1,444 2008 68.0% 66,304 31.3% 30,486 0.8% 744

Census 1990 Pop. 222,636 %± 5.2% 2000 242,628 9.0% 2010 278,831 14.9% 2019 (est.) 310,569 [6] 11.4% U.S. Decennial Census[7]

Randall County

Presidential election results[12] Year Republican Democratic Third parties 2020 78.5% 50,796 19.8% 12,802 1.7% 1,076 2016 80.0% 43,462 15.4% 8,367 4.6% 2,476 2012 83.4% 41,447 15.2% 7,574 1.4% 675 2008 80.9% 41,948 18.3% 9,468 0.8% 416

Census 1990 Pop. 89,673 %± 19.5% 2000 104,312 16.3% 2010 120,725 15.7% 2019 (est.) 137,713 [5] 14.1% U.S. Decennial Census[6]

Midland County

Presidential elections results[13] Year Republican Democratic Third parties 2020 77.5% 45,624 21.0% 12,329 1.5% 906 2016 75.1% 36,973 20.4% 10,025 4.5% 2,214 2012 79.9% 35,689 18.5% 8,286 1.6% 722 2008 78.1% 36,155 20.9% 9,691 0.9% 428

Census 1990 Pop. 106,611 %± 29.0% 2000 116,009 8.8% 2010 136,872 18.0% 2019 (est.) 176,832 [5] 29.2% U.S. Decennial Census[6]

Taylor County

Presidential elections results[21] Year Republican Democratic Third parties 2020 71.7% 39,547 26.5% 14,588 1.8% 1,000 2016 72.7% 33,250 22.0% 10,085 5.3% 2,424 2012 76.1% 32,904 22.5% 9,750 1.4% 609 2008 72.3% 34,317 26.8% 12,690 0.9% 432

Census 1990 Pop. 119,655 %± 7.9% 2000 126,555 5.8% 2010 131,506 3.9% 2019 (est.) 138,034 [17] 5.0% U.S. Decennial Census[18]

Ector County

Presidential elections results[10] Year Republican Democratic Third parties 2020 73.3% 32,697 25.5% 11,367 1.2% 527 2016 68.5% 25,020 28.1% 10,249 3.5% 1,261 2012 73.9% 24,010 25.0% 8,118 1.2% 385 2008 73.5% 26,199 25.6% 9,123 0.9% 329

Census 1990 Pop. 118,934 %± 3.1% 2000 121,123 1.8% 2010 137,130 13.2% 2019 (est.) U.S. Decennial Census[7] 166,223 [6] 21.2%

Bowie County

Presidential elections results[28] Year Republican Democratic Third parties 2020 70.9% 27,116 28.1% 10,747 1.0% 398 2016 72.0% 24,924 25.5% 8,838 2.4% 840 2012 70.2% 24,869 28.8% 10,196 1.0% 339 2008 68.7% 24,162 30.7% 10,815 0.6% 209

Census 1990 Pop. 81,665 %± 8.5% 2000 89,306 9.4% 2010 92,565 3.6% 2019 (est.) 93,245 [21] 0.7% U.S. Decennial Census[22]

Angelina County

Presidential elections results[13] Year Republican Democratic Third parties 2020 72.5% 25,076 26.4% 9,143 1.0% 355 2016 72.4% 21,668 25.2% 7,538 2.4% 705 2012 71.5% 20,303 27.6% 7,834 1.0% 269 2008 67.1% 19,569 32.2% 9,379 0.7% 205

Census 1990 Pop. 69,884 %± 8.9% 2000 80,130 14.7% 2010 86,771 8.3% 2019 (est.) 86,715 [7] −0.1% U.S. Decennial Census[8]

Potter County

Presidential election results[14] Year Republican Democratic Third parties 2020 68.5% 22,820 29.8% 9,921 1.8% 596 2016 68.1% 19,630 26.6% 7,657 5.4% 1,544 2012 71.5% 18,918 26.9% 7,126 1.5% 406 2008 69.2% 20,761 29.8% 8,939 1.0% 313

1990 97,874 −0.8% 2000 113,546 16.0% 2010 121,073 6.6% 2019 (est.) 117,415 [9] −3.0% U.S. Decennial Census[10]

 

[rommelrommel]

That’s a pretty odd take. Why the focus on these particular counties rather than the overall vote? Also, I really hope that voting isn‘t so tribal 25-30 years from now.

 

[nickqt]

In my honest opinion, I do not think Texas would end up going to the Democrats in any election for the next 25 to 30 years, regardless if the proposed restrictive voting laws were to be enacted or not. My opinion is based of the voting trend of 8 populous counties, out of which none are considered to be suburban areas of and nor are the 5 well known counties in Texas (ex. Harris, Tarrant, ect.). The 8 counties that I am referring to, have never voted for Democrats in decades; some of the 8 counties even voted for the Republican candidate in the 1964 Presidential Election. The name of the 8 counties that I am referring to are Lubbock, Randall, Midland, Taylor, Ector, Bowie, Angelina, and Potter Counties.

If you were to look into the voting history of Lubbock County, the most populous of the 8 counties, even with it's growing population the number of Republican voters is growing at a similar rate to the rate of increase in the number of Democrat voters. This trend can also be seen in the other 7 counties. In the 2016 Presidential Election in Lubbock County, 65651 (66.3%) of votes were for Trump, 28023 (28.3%) of votes were for Hillary Clinton, and 5339 (5.4%) were for third parties. In the 2020 Presidential Election in the same county, 78861 (65.3%) of votes were for Trump, 40017 (33.1%) of votes were for Biden, and 1939 (1.6%) votes went to third parties. This was just one of the 8 counties. Basically the rate of change is very slow in these counties, even with their booming cities.

Biden lost the state to Trump by a margin of 631,221 votes. If the margins of how much Biden lost the 8 counties were to be totaled, it would amount to 201,623 votes. That is approximately 32% of the number of votes that caused Trump to outrun Biden in Texas. The cumulative margin of 201,623 votes is almost 22% as much as the number of votes Biden received in Harris county, the county where Houston is.

I got the information above and bellow from Wikipedia.

Lubbock County

Presidential election results[10] ​ Year Republican Democratic Third parties 2020 65.3% 78,861 33.1% 40,017 1.6% 1,939 2016 66.3% 65,651 28.3% 28,023 5.4% 5,339 2012 69.6% 63,469 28.8% 26,271 1.6% 1,444 2008 68.0% 66,304 31.3% 30,486 0.8% 744

Census 1990 Pop. 222,636 %± 5.2% 2000 242,628 9.0% 2010 278,831 14.9% 2019 (est.) 310,569 [6] 11.4% U.S. Decennial Census[7]

Randall County

Presidential election results[12] ​ Year Republican Democratic Third parties 2020 78.5% 50,796 19.8% 12,802 1.7% 1,076 2016 80.0% 43,462 15.4% 8,367 4.6% 2,476 2012 83.4% 41,447 15.2% 7,574 1.4% 675 2008 80.9% 41,948 18.3% 9,468 0.8% 416

Census 1990 Pop. 89,673 %± 19.5% 2000 104,312 16.3% 2010 120,725 15.7% 2019 (est.) 137,713 [5] 14.1% U.S. Decennial Census[6]

Midland County

Presidential elections results[13] ​ Year Republican Democratic Third parties 2020 77.5% 45,624 21.0% 12,329 1.5% 906 2016 75.1% 36,973 20.4% 10,025 4.5% 2,214 2012 79.9% 35,689 18.5% 8,286 1.6% 722 2008 78.1% 36,155 20.9% 9,691 0.9% 428

Census 1990 Pop. 106,611 %± 29.0% 2000 116,009 8.8% 2010 136,872 18.0% 2019 (est.) 176,832 [5] 29.2% U.S. Decennial Census[6]

Taylor County

Presidential elections results[21] ​ Year Republican Democratic Third parties 2020 71.7% 39,547 26.5% 14,588 1.8% 1,000 2016 72.7% 33,250 22.0% 10,085 5.3% 2,424 2012 76.1% 32,904 22.5% 9,750 1.4% 609 2008 72.3% 34,317 26.8% 12,690 0.9% 432

Census 1990 Pop. 119,655 %± 7.9% 2000 126,555 5.8% 2010 131,506 3.9% 2019 (est.) 138,034 [17] 5.0% U.S. Decennial Census[18]

Ector County

Presidential elections results[10] ​ Year Republican Democratic Third parties 2020 73.3% 32,697 25.5% 11,367 1.2% 527 2016 68.5% 25,020 28.1% 10,249 3.5% 1,261 2012 73.9% 24,010 25.0% 8,118 1.2% 385 2008 73.5% 26,199 25.6% 9,123 0.9% 329

Census 1990 Pop. 118,934 %± 3.1% 2000 121,123 1.8% 2010 137,130 13.2% 2019 (est.) U.S. Decennial Census[7] 166,223 [6] 21.2%

Bowie County

Presidential elections results[28] ​ Year Republican Democratic Third parties 2020 70.9% 27,116 28.1% 10,747 1.0% 398 2016 72.0% 24,924 25.5% 8,838 2.4% 840 2012 70.2% 24,869 28.8% 10,196 1.0% 339 2008 68.7% 24,162 30.7% 10,815 0.6% 209

Census 1990 Pop. 81,665 %± 8.5% 2000 89,306 9.4% 2010 92,565 3.6% 2019 (est.) 93,245 [21] 0.7% U.S. Decennial Census[22]

Angelina County

Presidential elections results[13] ​ Year Republican Democratic Third parties 2020 72.5% 25,076 26.4% 9,143 1.0% 355 2016 72.4% 21,668 25.2% 7,538 2.4% 705 2012 71.5% 20,303 27.6% 7,834 1.0% 269 2008 67.1% 19,569 32.2% 9,379 0.7% 205

Census 1990 Pop. 69,884 %± 8.9% 2000 80,130 14.7% 2010 86,771 8.3% 2019 (est.) 86,715 [7] −0.1% U.S. Decennial Census[8]

Potter County

Presidential election results[14] ​ Year Republican Democratic Third parties 2020 68.5% 22,820 29.8% 9,921 1.8% 596 2016 68.1% 19,630 26.6% 7,657 5.4% 1,544 2012 71.5% 18,918 26.9% 7,126 1.5% 406 2008 69.2% 20,761 29.8% 8,939 1.0% 313

1990 97,874 −0.8% 2000 113,546 16.0% 2010 121,073 6.6% 2019 (est.) 117,415 [9] −3.0% U.S. Decennial Census[10]

So you're looking only at strong Republican counties to predict future election results?

Why would you ignore cities/Democratic counties?

2016 Total Votes
Trump: 4.6 million / 52%
Clinton: 3.8 million / 43%

2020 Total Votes
Trump: 5.8 million / 52%
Biden: 5.2 million / 46%

The Republican Party increased their vote count by 1.2 million from 2016 to 2020.

The Democratic Party increased their vote count by 1.4 million from 2016 to 2020.

You could also look at 3 fastest growing counties in Texas: Harris, Collin, Denton

Harris County
2016 Votes Trump Clinton

Harris

545,955

41.61%

707,914

53.95%

2020 Votes Trump Biden

Harris

700,630

42.70%

918,193

55.96%

In the fastest growing county in Texas, the Democratic candidate picked up 211,000 votes, compared to the Republican candidate picking up 155,000.

Collin County
2016 Votes Trump Clinton

Collin

201,014

55.62%

140,624

38.91%

2020 Votes Trump Biden

Collin

252,318

51.40%

230,945

47.05%

In the second fastest growing county in Texas, the Democratic candidate picked up 90,000 votes, compared to the Republican candidate picking up 51,000 votes.

Denton County
2016 Votes Trump Clinton

Denton

170,603

57.13%

110,890

37.13%

2020 Votes Trump Biden

Denton

222,480

53.23%

188,695

45.15%

In the third fastest growing county in Texas, the Democratic candidate picked up 78,000 votes, compared to the Republican candidate picking up 55,000 votes.

So, simply looking at total votes from 2016 to 2020, the Democratic candidate picked up substantially more votes and % than the Republican. Looking at just the top 3 fastest growing Texas counties, the Democratic candidate picked up substantially more votes and % than the Republican candidate.

So, why 25-30 years, and why looking at extremely red and not particularly fast-growing counties, instead of the fastest growing counties?

 

[kage69]

I don't see the party of treason doing so hot in the future. Losing too many boomers, losing their culture war, with younger generations increasingly seeing repugs as ineffective fascists, the party of corruption and old white asshole grievances.

I heard on David Pakman since their little insurrection the GQP has lost about 7 million supporters nationally. How many right wing nutjobs won't be around in 2024 thanks to covid19 denial?

Dems account for most of the country, most of the GDP. At some point republican minority control will be too hard to maintain.

 

[HomerJS]

Getting rid of partisan gerrymandering will push the state towards electing reps reflecting the will of the people vs the will of the minority.

 

[Indus]

I don't see the party of treason doing so hot in the future. Losing too many boomers, losing their culture war, with younger generations increasingly seeing repugs as ineffective fascists, the party of corruption and old white asshole grievances.

I heard on David Pakman since their little insurrection the GQP has lost about 7 million supporters nationally. How many right wing nutjobs won't be around in 2024 thanks to covid19 denial?

Dems account for most of the country, most of the GDP. At some point republican minority control will be too hard to maintain.

Wishful thinking.

California and New York are losing population. Weirdly its not the blue peeps that're moving but the red ones and they're moving into Texas, NC and FL.

So that's mitigating the gains made.

 

[K1052]

Wishful thinking.

California and New York are losing population. Weirdly its not the blue peeps that're moving but the red ones and they're moving into Texas, NC and FL.

So that's mitigating the gains made.

To a man everybody I know who's moved here (TX) has done so for lower cost of living and job opportunities as many companies are more aggressively expanding operations here instead of the coasts.

 

[nisryus]

Agree with K1052. Most of the new transplants I have encountered in Williamson County are from NY and Cali and are Democrats or non-partisans. They moved here for cost of living, job opportunities, or mvoe along with their companies.

 

[Fenixgoon]

Agree with K1052. Most of the new transplants I have encountered in Williamson County are from NY and Cali and are Democrats or non-partisans. They moved here for cost of living, job opportunities, or mvoe along with their companies.

As someone who moved from Wilco (Cedar Park) to the east coast - about 1.5hrs from DC - I was shocked at how high housing prices were out here. I'm in a rather small town and I thought my money would go a lot further.

 

[K1052]

As someone who moved from Wilco (Cedar Park) to the east coast - about 1.5hrs from DC - I was shocked at how high housing prices were out here. I'm in a rather small town and I thought my money would go a lot further.

A friend of mine lives way out in the far edge of Fairfax not near anything really and rents a townhome with a roommate for a truly shocking sum considering the location.

Though the entire Austin area has gone absolutely bonkers as everybody who was going to make the move here in the next few years is doing it now. We've got all cash bidding wars with dozens of offers on stuff all over the metro. The limited housing stock has been absolutely overwhelmed. Builders will catch up eventually but that's going to take a year at least.

 

[kage69]

Wishful thinking.

California and New York are losing population. Weirdly its not the blue peeps that're moving but the red ones and they're moving into Texas, NC and FL.

So that's mitigating the gains made.

More of an approximation based on math really. The vast majority of relocations are made over cost of living according to the surveys, not politics. I don't think 40k here, 60k there, split between more than one destination, is going to nullify the shrinking numbers of the GQP. Their hope lies in cheating, in suppression, and with it comes the risk it will actually backfire on them. Seems to me Texans freezing to death and going without food and potable water could factor into the next election too. We'll see.

Not too long ago people were saying Virginia and Georgia would never turn blue, 'wishful thinking.' Now both of them are, and Arizona decided to climb in too. Just sayin.

 

[woolfe9998]

2004: R+22.69%
2008: R+11.78%
2012: R+15.79%
2016: R+8.98%
2020: R+5.65%

That 2020 result was with Biden spending almost no money and not really campaigning in TX at all. Beto asked him to, but he declined.

Result will depend not on individual counties, but on whether the statewide demographic trends which have eroded the GOP advantage going on 20 years now continue, halt, or reverse. If they continue, TX could be in play for 2024, and will definitely be in play for 2028. At the very least, the dem candidate in 2024 can force the R candidate to play defense there.

 

[fskimospy]

2004: R+22.69%
2008: R+11.78%
2012: R+15.79%
2016: R+8.98%
2020: R+5.65%

That 2020 result was with Biden spending almost no money and not really campaigning in TX at all. Beto asked him to, but he declined.

Result will depend not on individual counties, but on whether the statewide demographic trends which have eroded the GOP advantage going on 20 years now continue, halt, or reverse. If they continue, TX could be in play for 2024, and will definitely be in play for 2028. At the very least, the dem candidate in 2024 can force the R candidate to play defense there.

This could be a huge result going forward if Democrats can force Republican candidates to at least expend significant resources there as Texas is a relatively expensive media market if memory serves and if Republicans lose it that's game over.

While this is promising, I to expect if it happens it will accelerate the push by Republican state legislatures to do away with winner take all systems and move to congressional district ones so they can incorporate their gerrymandered house districts into a gerrymandered electoral vote.

 

[woolfe9998]

This could be a huge result going forward if Democrats can force Republican candidates to at least expend significant resources there as Texas is a relatively expensive media market if memory serves and if Republicans lose it that's game over.

It could actually have played a larger role in 2020, but Biden made a mistake not listening to Beto. He couldn't have won the state. Best result probably would have been Trump +3.5%, but had he campaigned heavily there, it would have forced Trump to deploy resources there, resources which he didn't have at the late stage, while Biden was flush. Meaning Trump would have had to pull resources out of tight swing states, while Biden's ad buys in those states were way into diminishing returns.

While this is promising, I to expect if it happens it will accelerate the push by Republican state legislatures to do away with winner take all systems and move to congressional district ones so they can incorporate their gerrymandered house districts into a gerrymandered electoral vote.

Shit. I hadn't thought about that, but you're right. It wouldn't surprise me in the least. Those fucks will do absolutely anything to skew results in their favor. Still, it will allow the dems to get some EV's out of TX no matter what.

 

[nickqt]

It could actually have played a larger role in 2020, but Biden made a mistake not listening to Beto. He couldn't have won the state. Best result probably would have been Trump +3.5%, but had he campaigned heavily there, it would have forced Trump to deploy resources there, resources which he didn't have at the late stage, while Biden was flush. Meaning Trump would have had to pull resources out of tight swing states, while Biden's ad buys in those states were way into diminishing returns.



Shit. I hadn't thought about that, but you're right. It wouldn't surprise me in the least. Those fucks will do absolutely anything to skew results in their favor. Still, it will allow the dems to get some EV's out of TX no matter what.

Ad buys are relatively meaningless at this point in time. You're either a right-wing authoritarian willing to kill Americans to get your fascist leader installed as dictator, or you're going to go vote for whatever Democrat is on the ballot.

The Democratic Party needs to spend its money on voter registration and voter transportation to the polls.

 

[woolfe9998]

Ad buys are relatively meaningless at this point in time. You're either a right-wing authoritarian willing to kill Americans to get your fascist leader installed as dictator, or you're going to go vote for whatever Democrat is on the ballot.

The Democratic Party needs to spend its money on voter registration and voter transportation to the polls.

Whatever is the most effective use of campaign funds wasn't really the point of my post.

 

[nickqt]

Whatever is the most effective use of campaign funds wasn't really the point of my post.

Oh ok, have a good one chap.

 

[woolfe9998]

Oh ok, have a good one chap.

I wasn't meaning to be dismissive of your point. But what is and isn't an effective use of campaign funds is anyone's guess at this point. I've seen research suggesting political adverts are ineffective, period. Not just now, but 10 years back. I've also seen research suggesting that spending on the "ground game" is ineffective. Yet something must be effective or money would be nearly irrelevant in campaigns.

I will say this: there are still some swing voters, so the persuasion game has not become entirely irrelevant. It just isn't all that clear as to what are the best channels to use to achieve it.

 

[Moonbeam]

The Republican Party is in the process of destroying itself. Democrats need to campaign on one issue:

If you feel America is falling behind in greatness stop voting for the party that blocks all attempts at progress and make it really great again. Stop fearing somebody different will get more than you. You are as different as anybody else. The way you have been voting just serves the 1% and buys your pastor a new jet. Think more about your children.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

The Republican Party is in the process of destroying itself. Democrats need to campaign on one issue:

If you feel America is falling behind in greatness stop voting for the party that blocks all attempts at progress and make it really great again. Stop fearing somebody different will get more than you. You are as different as anybody else. The way you have been voting just serves the 1% and buys your pastor a new jet. Think more about your children.

Instead they are being partisan.... Dividing by race...dividing by haves and have nots... Dividing by gender.... The list goes on and on...


Instead of uniting as humans they instead opt to be idiots. Surprise surprise.

 

[nickqt]

Instead they are being partisan.... Dividing by race...dividing by haves and have nots... Dividing by gender.... The list goes on and on...


Instead of uniting as humans they instead opt to be idiots. Surprise surprise.

n0b0dy: screaming at the moron he sees in the mirror, forever.

Thanks for stopping by, n0b0dy.

 

[kage69]

n0b0dy: screaming at the moron he sees in the mirror, forever.

Thanks for stopping by, n0b0dy.

Idk, the 'divide by race, divide by gender' part gave me a hearty laugh, which I kind of appreciate at this point. The racist Trumpists, so willing to let the holy rollers make females of child bearing age 2nd class citizens, project onto the Dems again. Even if I approve of the humor it provides, it'd be nice for these idiots to learn a new trick. So tired of all the projection. What's below a one trick pony? Semi-amusing jackass?

 

[brandonbull]

Getting rid of partisan gerrymandering will push the state towards electing reps reflecting the will of the people vs the will of the minority.

Speaking of gerrymandering, no need to worry because the Democrats' efforts to import voters from other countries will probably payoff.

 

[brycejones]

Speaking of gerrymandering, no need to worry because the Democrats' efforts to import voters from other countries will probably payoff.

Do you support gerrymandering?

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Idk, the 'divide by race, divide by gender' part gave me a hearty laugh, which I kind of appreciate at this point. The racist Trumpists, so willing to let the holy rollers make females of child bearing age 2nd class citizens, project onto the Dems again. Even if I approve of the humor it provides, it'd be nice for these idiots to learn a new trick. So tired of all the projection. What's below a one trick pony? Semi-amusing jackass?

Research latins with more than just your stereotypes. It's not a matter of simply saying "If you don't vote for me than you ain't black"