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I made $1015 at the casino today.
- Thread starter etalns
- Start date
About 1 hour.
I have engineered my own system of card counting! If 20% (or less) of the cards in the deck are faces I double my bet up. It becomes increasingly likely statistically that faces will come as my bets go up. If faces exceed 20% I cut my bet in half, if they exceed 30% I go back to the minimum bet and start over again.
I have never left the casino down yet. And I try to leave as soon as I win $150, today was just special because I was bored. 😛
I disagree. People just don't know when to stop. They go up $100 and think they could go up $200. There is no end to it. You need to go in with your sights set on a particular dollar figure that you want to get up to (typically no more than 25% of the money you have on hand) and as soon as you get it you walk away. Casinos win over the long term because people a) don't effectively weigh the odds, b) don't leave when they are up, in hopes of getting more and more... ultimately netting them less and less!
AnonymouseUser
Diamond Member
QFT
Those casinos weren't built with Monopoly money.
Accipiter22
Banned
what game????
Accipiter22
Banned
statisticaly if less than 20% of the cards are faces and you double your bet....whereas you drop your bet if MORE faces are in the deck the reverse of your logic is true. The higher your bet the less likely you'll see a face card.
The odds are always against you. And even assuming 50/50 odds, aiming for 25% of your 'investment', you'll only break even over the long run.
Why? suppose you go with $400 each time and you say you'll quit when you're $100 ahead. Statistically, 4 out of 5 times you'll make that goal. The other 1 out of 5 times you'll lose all $400. Your expected value would be 0.
Okay, so you'll quit when you're $100 down. Then statisically, out of two trips, once you'll reach +$100 first, the other you'll reach -$100 first. Again, you break even.
That's assuming 50/50 odds, which we all know doesnt happen in casinos, unless you count cards.
So even playing with a cool head, not letting emotions get in the way, you'll end up a long term losing according to this little thing called expected values.
crownjules
Diamond Member
You are wrong. Casinos win because they have the edge in every game. For example, even if you play BJ exactly right in every situation the house still has something like a 0.5% edge. That's the best game to play. Everything else has worse odds for you. Why do casinos maintain an edge? Because most games do not pay out proportionally to the odds you are given.
For example, take Roulette, one of the worst games you can play. There are 35 numbers you can place bets on plus either one or two 0 slots. If you placed your bet on one number and hit, you would expect an even payout of 37 to 1 since there are 37 different. You don't get that. The payout you receive is below the odds (I think you get 32 to 1? It's been awhile since I last played roulette) and that is why people lose in the long run.
People can go on winning streaks, but ultimately the house wins. That's why poker is the only gambling game I play. You don't play the house.
DurocShark
Lifer
I disagree. There's a way to win consistently. But betting the field ain't it. 😉
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