Hurricane Wilma Thread

[oddyager]

Originally posted by: yankeesfan

Originally posted by: Nitemare
WTF happens when they run out of letters?

They go through the Greek alphabet, I believe. It's never happened, AFAIK.

Yeah, they go to Alpha, Beta, et cetera. Q, U, X, Y and Z aren't included in the list of names.

Originally posted by: jpeyton
Bwahahaha.

Wasn't it just last week 20/20 covered the unbelievable real estate market in Florida? Makes me wonder who these people are that want to move down there.

Sarcasm at its worst?

 

[Torched]

I live in miami. People are already starting to panic... long gas lines etc. Kinda strange that miami got most of the storms before they were cat 5's i.e katrina, rita. now we are looking down the barrel of a long gun. My street sign is still crooked from katrina and the memory of water coming in under my front door is still vivid. I hope the flooding here won't be as bad as last time.

 

[aphex]

Originally posted by: Torched
I live in miami. People are already starting to panic... long gas lines etc. Kinda strange that miami got most of the storms before they were cat 5's i.e katrina, rita. now we are looking down the barrel of a long gun. My street sign is still crooked from katrina and the memory of water coming in under my front door is still vivid. I hope the flooding here won't be as bad as last time.

I still remember Andrew like it was yesterday 🙁

 

[Torched]

Originally posted by: aphex

Originally posted by: Torched
I live in miami. People are already starting to panic... long gas lines etc. Kinda strange that miami got most of the storms before they were cat 5's i.e katrina, rita. now we are looking down the barrel of a long gun. My street sign is still crooked from katrina and the memory of water coming in under my front door is still vivid. I hope the flooding here won't be as bad as last time.

I still remember Andrew like it was yesterday 🙁

Alot of people here still do remember andrew and panic like 4 day too early... Of course the news stations here don't help

 

[AbsolutZero]

I find it interesting how people respond to projections like this. If this was the first major hurricane of the year after several false alarms by the media and forecasters, people usually blow it off. Now that Katrina, Rita, and now Wilma have reached cat 5 and Katrina took thousands of lives, people pay attention, perhaps to the point of overreaction. Emotion and images obviously make people respond much more than factual information. Marketing people probably already knew that.

The good news is that besides cool water temps, the strongest countermeasure for hurricanes is wind shear (strong winds aloft). Fairly strong winds aloft (even for October) are forecast this weekend as Wilma moves into the Gulf. This will weaken it steadily and at a pretty quick pace.

 

[AbsolutZero]

Its now time for the obligatory ytmnd post...

http://runfromwilma.ytmnd.com/

 

[Cuda1447]

Someone had posted it in the Katrina thread, but I don't feel like finding it.... does anyone know what the strongest (lowest MB) is possible?

 

[AbsolutZero]

There was research done on the "Thermodynamic Speed Limit" associated with super tornadoes (I think like 300 m/s), but I don't know of a study on the theoritical minimum pressure of a hurricane. If a lower pressure than 880mb is observed, it would not stay that low for very long. The rate of energy transfer (latent heat energy --> kinetic energy) is much too high to sustain.

Thermodynamic Speed Limit
http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary/browse?s=t&p=20

The theory I subscribe to why we see much more tornadoes and stronger hurricanes this decade compared with previous ones is that the technology we use to measure storms (radar, satellite, better instruments) is much better. We also sample these storms more frequently which much higher resolution so we can capture those brief periods when intensity spikes up.

Edit: Just found this...

The lowest pressure ever recorded in a tropical cyclone was 870 millibars in Typhoon Tip in the northwest Pacific Ocean in 1979.

 

[iamwiz82]

Blame me guys 🙁. I have vacations planned in Cancun next month and Jamiaca, Grand Cayman, Cozumel, and the Bahamas in Jan.

 

[Goosemaster]

talk about ownage🙁

I hope i doesn't hit. My dad is down in Louisiana and I don't want him to get hurt🙁

 

[Legend]

I would like to think that the waters that lead to Florida are cooling down, and that it's unlikely that it'll reach Florida, if it even does, at above cat 3.

 

[alien42]

ir loop for reference

 

[Adul]

Wow this monster grew very fast

Tropical Storm and Hurricane Log
--------------------------------

Name: Hurricane WILMA
Date: 10-19-05
Updated: 10:47:59 AM
Next Update: 2:00 PM

Wind Central
Advisory (in MPH) Direction of Pressure
Number Date/Time Position Speed Gust Movement (MPH) (in mb) Status
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 15/2100Z 17.6N/78.8W 30 40 W 3 1004 TropDp
2 16/0300Z 17.0N/79.0W 30 40 SW 3 1003 TropDp
2A 16/0600Z 17.0N/79.0W 35 45 Stnry -- 1003 TropDp
3 16/0900Z 17.0N/79.3W 35 45 W 2 1003 TropDp
3A 16/1200Z 17.1N/79.4W 35 45 Stnry -- 1003 TropDp
4 16/1500Z 17.1N/79.3W 35 45 Stnry -- 1002 TropDp
4A 16/1800Z 17.3N/79.3W 35 45 Stnry -- 1002 TropDp
5 16/2100Z 17.7N/79.6W 35 45 WNW 2 1001 TropDp
6 17/0300Z 17.6N/79.7W 35 45 W 2 1001 TropDp
6A 17/0600Z 17.4N/79.6W 35 45 S Dfting 1000 TropDp
7 17/0900Z 17.2N/79.7W 40 50 SW 3 1000 TropSt
7A 17/1200Z 16.8N/79.6W 40 50 S 5 1000 TropSt
8 17/1500Z 16.3N/80.0W 45 60 SW 5 998 TropSt
8A 17/1800Z 16.1N/80.0W 50 65 S Dfting 997 TropSt
9 17/2100Z 15.8N/79.9W 50 65 S DRFTNG 989 TropSt
9A 18/0000Z 15.7N/79.9W 50 65 Stnry -- 989 TropSt
10 18/0300Z 15.8N/80.2W 65 75 W 2 987 TropSt
10A 18/0600Z 15.7N/80.0W 65 75 W 2 984 TropSt
11 18/0900Z 15.7N/80.0W 70 85 Stnry -- 982 TropSt
11A 18/1200Z 15.9N/80.2W 70 85 NW Dfting 980 TropSn
12 18/1500Z 16.5N/80.6W 75 90 NW 7 977 Hrricn
12A 18/1800Z 16.7N/81.1W 80 100 WNW 8 975 Hrricn
13 18/2100Z 16.7N/81.5W 80 100 WNW 10 970 Hrricn
14 19/0300Z 16.8N/82.1W 110 130 WNW 8 945 Hrricn
15 19/0500Z 16.9N/82.0W 150 180 WNW 8 901 Hrricn
15A 19/0600Z 17.0N/82.2W 150 180 WNW 8 901 Hrricn
16 19/0900Z 17.2N/82.5W 175 215 WNW 8 884 Hrricn
16A 19/1200Z 17.2N/82.8W 175 215 WNW 8 882 Hrricn
17 19/1500Z 17.4N/83.2W 175 215 WNW 7 882 Hrricn

 

[ViciouS]

OH MAN!!!!!!!!! My roof is falling apart all ready.

 

[Avalon]

*Duck and cover*

I'm watching it here from Orlando, and hoping it doesn't hit straight on. Heck, I hope a miracle happens and it turns south of Florida and passes into the Atlantic.

 

[Cuda1447]

Wunderground.com is reporting that the 'cane has weakened to 900mb. ERC? Or was it just a fluke that it got as strong as it was?

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Cuda1447
Wunderground.com is reporting that the 'cane has weakened to 900mb. ERC? Or was it just a fluke that it got as strong as it was?

Most likely beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle

 

[rickn]

some computer models going haywire

 

[ViRGE]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Cuda1447
Wunderground.com is reporting that the 'cane has weakened to 900mb. ERC? Or was it just a fluke that it got as strong as it was?

Most likely beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle

Indeed. Confirmed by the NHC.

 

[ViRGE]

Humm, I'll need confirmation on this, but with one of the reports I'm reading, the pressure may still be at 882mb.

 

[43st]

It has two eyes?!?! Run for the hills!!!

 

[AkumaX]

Two eyes?! That's like Fusion + SS4 + Monkey mode!!

 

[fbrdphreak]

Here's to hoping it stays away from eastern NC this weekend 😱

 

[ViRGE]

Latest recon fix(as of 20:00z) has a pressure of 892, so she's still holding low.

 

[IronWing]

We need to start a pool on landfall. I've been reading these NHC forecast discussions for years and have never seen one that basically says "beats my ass" before.

From the NHC (all caps is from original):

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE
06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA
RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN
EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI
FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME
SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN
MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND
THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA
DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA
CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE
TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.