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Hurricane Sandy! (Watch out, NE)

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I spent a while reading up on one of the weather forums, looks like NJ, NYC, Long Island, Conn... are in deep shit.
 
DrPizza said:
I spent a while reading up on one of the weather forums, looks like NJ, NYC, Long Island, Conn... are in deep shit.
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I really hope you and everyone else is wrong about this. A big storm here now would be terrible. I remember the storm with no name in 1991. They are comparing this one to that one.

How do they know it will bear left and make landfall anyway? It could hang a right and go out to sea right? They don't really know where it is going to go, but seem so certain it is going to hit the land between like DC and NYC. I hope they are just trying to scare us with all this hype.
 
i can't wait to see boats floating down constitution avenue past the white house. and great sea vessels passing through times square. gonna be awesome.
 
Stifko said:
I really hope you and everyone else is wrong about this. A big storm here now would be terrible. I remember the storm with no name in 1991. They are comparing this one to that one.

How do they know it will bear left and make landfall anyway? It could hang a right and go out to sea right? They don't really know where it is going to go, but seem so certain it is going to hit the land between like DC and NYC. I hope they are just trying to scare us with all this hype.
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Every major model, including the two most reliable, have this thing getting sucked in by the trough that is over the US right now. This is what has everyone scared, because this has never happened before, and the models almost never agree to this degree. Even the pros are hoping they are wrong, but they just want everyone prepared in case the models are right. This really is shaping up to be a historic event no matter where it hits.

Really, what is the harm in taking precautions for life and property, even if nothing happens? The slight inconvenience you will incur is paltry compared to losing everything, or losing your life if the predictions are correct.

People do get complacent, but you really can't afford to be. If you get yourself squared away and make an emergency kit, it takes a couple of hours tops to prepare for this kind of event. It's worth investing the time so you don't get found wanting or left injured later.

I'm from the midwest, and I still shelter every time there's a tornado warning when I'm back there, even if I think it's not coming near. You can't predict it precisely, so why take the risk? Here on the east coast, that equates to stocking up before blizzards and taking precautions for hurricanes when you're in the predicted path.

This storm could end up being both at once. I'd rather have the food and fuel on hand than not, even if the worst we get is a half inch of rain and some scary thunder across the entire warned area.

EDIT:

Also, this is just a big MFing storm in general. As it starts to collapse, they expect the wind bands to double. They're already 165 - 180 miles out from the eye. The sheer scope of that is awe inspiring for anyone with even a passing interest in weather. When this storm is sitting over Long Island, the winds are still going to be in Virginia and hitting Maine at the same time. It's going to mean 12 - 16 hours of sustained 40mph winds for anyone in the path even if it bends seaward at the last minute. That's nothing to trifle about with so much foliage still hanging. There's going to be power outages even without the flooding, similar to the derecho that hit us earlier this year.
 
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stopped by costco for some stuff and saw someone buying the floor model generator, seems it was the last they had in store.
 
The most recent statement from one of the US's leading people with hurricane experience:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/bnorcross/comment.html?entrynum=18

Brian Norcross said:
Isn't it strange that a hurricane in the Bahamas would somehow turn into a monster mega-storm and slam into the Northeast at the end of October? Aren't hurricanes supposed to weaken as they move north over cold water? What the hell is going on?

The answers are... yes, yes, and we're not completely sure. This is a beyond-strange situation. It's unprecedented and bizarre. Hurricanes almost always bend out to sea in October, although there have been some exceptions when storms went due north, but rarely. No October tropical systems in the record book have turned left into the northeast coast.

The strong evidence we have that a significant, maybe historic, storm is going to hit the east coast is that EVERY reliable computer forecast model now says it's going to happen. The only way we can forecast the weather four or five days days from now is with the aid of these super-complex computer programs run on supercomputers. The two best, the European and the U.S. GFS (Global Forecast System) run by NOAA, are now in reasonable agreement that there IS going to be an extraordinarily unusual confluence of events that results in a massive storm.

The upper-air steering pattern that is part of the puzzle is not all that unheard of. It happens when the atmosphere gets blocked over the Atlantic and the flow over the U.S. doubles back on itself. Sometimes big winter storms are involved.

The freak part is that a hurricane happens to be in the right place in the world to get sucked into this doubled-back channel of air and pulled inland from the coast.

And the double-freak part is that the upper level wind, instead of weakening the storm and simply absorbing the moisture - which would be annoying enough - is merging with the tropical system to create a monstrous hybrid vortex. A combination of a hurricane and a nor'easter.

At least that's what the models are saying. And since all of the independent models are saying something similar, we have to believe them and be ready.

For most people being ready means getting to the store and getting stuff before everybody else gets wise and gets the stuff first. The forecast is for an incredibly widespread and long-duration windstorm, meaning power will likely be out for an extended period of time in a lot of locations.

A transistor radio is your best friend in a situation like this. Get one and enough batteries to keep it going. Your cell phone may or may not be your friend after a big storm.

For people near the coast, it's critical that you pay attention to local evacuation orders and emergency information. This storm, as forecast, will create dangerous and potentially life-threatening storm surge along hundreds of miles of coastline north of where the center comes ashore. Big storms move a lot of water, and this one is about as big as they come.

Right now, it looks like the storm center will land between the Delmarva and New Jersey, which would put the entire Tri-State area of NJ, NY, and Connecticut on the bad side of the storm. The Jersey Shore, Long Island, and New York City itself would be exposed to the brunt of the storm surge due to the "L" in the coastline at NYC. The angle and duration of the wind will keep the water high for an extended period of time, if this comes together as forecast. This means transportation disruptions and widespread coastal damage.

If the storm comes in farther south, the Delmarva, Delaware Bay and maybe the Chesapeake will be at risk. A storm the size that's forecast would cause problems throughout New England as well, even if the center is south of New York. And then there is the threat from flooding rain and the extremely heavy snow well inland.

To make all this worse along the coast, the moon is full on Monday, meaning the high tides will be higher yet.

The hope we have is that the computer models are not handling this unusual situation well, and are predicting a stronger storm than we get. But, we can't bet of it. Even a weaker version will likely mean a nightmare for millions.
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This is why I'm telling people to be prepared, even here in Baltimore where they don't usually lose power. I'm not worried about flooding, but I can tell you that days without power suck ass.

My coworkers have gone for 4 - 7 days straight with no power the last three major storm events. I was fortunate to only be out for 19 hours during Irene, and less than 4 for the derecho. The derecho had power out in some of the coastal areas in this county for 7 to 8 1/2 days. I don't mean a few isolated people, either; I'm talking entire neighborhoods, several thousand households, for 7 to 8 1/2 days.

Spread that out over 400nm and that's a lot of damn misery for a lot of people; some that are still going to be scoffing right up until it's too late to find food at the store and gas in the gas stations.

I really hope to hell they are wrong. I'd prefer to have wasted my time preparing than to have to watch other people suffer through the adversity that we are being warned about. I'm just saying that everyone else should check their head and then check their supplies, and do something about it while they still have a chance and there is still product out there to buy.
 
Stifko said:
I really hope you and everyone else is wrong about this. A big storm here now would be terrible. I remember the storm with no name in 1991. They are comparing this one to that one.

How do they know it will bear left and make landfall anyway? It could hang a right and go out to sea right? They don't really know where it is going to go, but seem so certain it is going to hit the land between like DC and NYC. I hope they are just trying to scare us with all this hype.
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Ditto. I live in the highlands and we really, really don't need this. Floyd took out most of the bridges around here, and even Irene had the downtown under three feet of water from the south branch of the Raritan. Not to mention days without power. Not looking forward to it.
 
Transformer popped 5 minutes ago, about half the town is now out, 60 MPH gusts recorded earlier, it's damm near stationary at this point, move out fucker!..
 
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went several times without for 2-3 days, one lasted 6. can get a lot of reading done, and play several board game scenarios through; most aren't going to like it though.
 
I'm not looking forward to this one. Having already experienced the 1998 NA Ice Storm and the 2006 October storm, I do pay a bit more attention to mixed systems. The former knocked out power in the area for up to two months in some areas (among other things), and the latter killed electricity for half of the Buffalo metro area, some places for around a week. A hurricane paired with a nor'easter will make for some...interesting circumstances.
 
Anyone here that lives in the Northeastern area, from the Appalachian Mountains to DC / Baltimore to Southwest Virginia. When the storm does arrive, if you have no loss of power, please keep this thread updated as I will also.

And the storm activities in your area for those locations as well.
 
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