How will the Democratic Party change course when McCain wins in November?

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: RY62

You sure about that?

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...iation/partisan_trends

Tuesday, September 02, 2008
During August, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Republicans increased two percentage points to 33.2% while the number of Democrats was little changed at 38.9%.

That gives the Democrats a net advantage of 5.7 percentage points, down two points from a month ago and down significantly from the double digit advantage they enjoyed in April and May.

Just the first poll I checked but it looks like Dem party affiliation has been dropping since Obama got the nod.

You're talking about short-term changes over the course of months - I am talking about the big picture.

Take a look at this long-term poll by the Pew Research Institute. The Republican party is constricting significantly even in red states, and the spread in swing states is even greater.

Last night David Brooks (the NYT's conservative columnist) was talking about this phenomenon on PBS's RNC coverage, and pointed out that polls show that Americans generally would rather see universal health care than tax cuts by a split of something like 67 to 27 percent. Meanwhile, only 9% of Republicans feel that way. If McCain doesn't campaign as a centrist, he will lose. In that respect I don't think Palin makes a lot of sense as a VP candidate.

 

[StageLeft]

"when"? I think you are delusional. McCane's chances are slim to none. Likely the Democrats end up with Congress and the Whitehouse and the Republicans are left the recipients of a different kind of "shock and awe".

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: Don Vito Corleone

Originally posted by: RY62

You sure about that?

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...iation/partisan_trends

Tuesday, September 02, 2008
During August, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Republicans increased two percentage points to 33.2% while the number of Democrats was little changed at 38.9%.

That gives the Democrats a net advantage of 5.7 percentage points, down two points from a month ago and down significantly from the double digit advantage they enjoyed in April and May.

Just the first poll I checked but it looks like Dem party affiliation has been dropping since Obama got the nod.

You're talking about short-term changes over the course of months - I am talking about the big picture.

Take a look at this long-term poll by the Pew Research Institute.

Well a lot of that has to do with an unpopular president and a congress who paid for it. The republicans in your link lost 6% points since 2004. The democrat % according to your link hasnt moved at all.

One thing I wish that study showed was the hispanic population. They show the white and black. But as demographics go over the next 5 decades. The hispanic population is driving the ship. They will represent a far larger % of the population than the black population.

 

[Moonbeam]

Originally posted by: quest55720

Originally posted by: eskimospy
I like when people who have no idea what the political center is advocate for a party to move more to the center.

I'll give you a hint guys: If the Democrats lose this election it will have literally nothing to do with the policies they advocate. On the majority of salient issues the overwhelming majority of Americans agrees with the Democratic party. It will be because the Republicans were successfully able to turn this election into an election based on a personality contest.

Well except maybe the biggest issue for many people. The energy debate the republicans are on the side of the public. The democrats have sided with its extreme left on the whole energy issue.

All the democrats had to do was get a complete energy plan passed this summer in congress and they would of won this election in a landslide. Now McCain has a punchers chance thanks to the democratic party's strong anti-drilling stance.

This is just another example where Republicans frame an issue to make it look like they are on the side of the people. People who know know that drilling is not an answer to the need the people feel. If people wanted whale oil the Republicans would support that if it got them a vote.

 

[BoomerD]

IF McSame wins, and I think it's quite possible, The Democratic Party have no one to blame but themselves. Once again, they have offered candidates that are too polarizing, and drive a large percentage of the "undecided" vote away.
"Hillary? Why she's a Clinton, and we CAN'T have another Clinton in office."
"Obama? You mean the black Muslim Terrerest? I hain't-a-gonna vote for no nagger!"

Gore was OK when he ran, and I think that if he'd have exhibited as much personality as he has trying to sell his carbon credit idea, he'd have won in 2000, but he still wasn't a GREAT option.
Kerry...sucked. Good congressman, terrible presidential candidate.
In my life, Kennedy and Clinton were the best choices we've been offered for Democratic candidates, although Hubert Humphrey was better than most people gave him credit for.
LBJ COULD have been a great president, (and did some great things during his terms) but Vietnam (and all the political stresses involved) proved to be too much for him to deal with.

The DNC needs to get away from the far-left and start offering some candidates that have personality, character, experience, and intelligence. Just one of two out of the 4 really isn't enough.


Now if we only had a VIABLE 3rd party choice...this life-long Democrat would probably cross party lines for the first time since I started voting...36 years ago.

 

[XMan]

Originally posted by: RY62

Originally posted by: Don Vito Corleone
Overall the polls show that the Democratic party is growing relative to the Republican party, probably largely a legacy of 8 years of the dreaded W - there simply are fewer young Republicans than there have been in many years. As a result, Republicans have to move to the center to be electable - witness the nomination of Mr. McCain. Even if the Democrats lose the Presidential election (which I regard as unlikely - I think Obama will win more decisively than in any Presidential election since 1996), they will gain seats in both houses of Congress and consolidate their power for 2012, when McCain will be even more ancient.

You sure about that?

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...iation/partisan_trends

Tuesday, September 02, 2008
During August, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Republicans increased two percentage points to 33.2% while the number of Democrats was little changed at 38.9%.

That gives the Democrats a net advantage of 5.7 percentage points, down two points from a month ago and down significantly from the double digit advantage they enjoyed in April and May.

Just the first poll I checked but it looks like Dem party affiliation has been dropping since Obama got the nod.

Not to mention that demographically speaking progressives tend to have fewer children.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Well a lot of that has to do with an unpopular president and a congress who paid for it. The republicans in your link lost 6% points since 2004. The democrat % according to your link hasnt moved at all.

One thing I wish that study showed was the hispanic population. They show the white and black. But as demographics go over the next 5 decades. The hispanic population is driving the ship. They will represent a far larger % of the population than the black population.

I'm not sure what you're looking at - the graphic clearly shows that the Democrats are up by one full point over the past few years, to their highest point since 2001. Meanwhile, independents lean Democratic far more than they did when President Bush took office.

The reality is that what this poll reflects is the fact that more and more young people are Democrats (in that sense, President Bush's bluster and incompetence will have long-reaching implications for his party). I don't believe this trend would change significantly during a one-term McCain Presidency, and I would be very suprised to see a 76-year-old McCain run for reelection and even more surprised to see a VP Palin run in 2012. According to the AP, Mitt Romney is already licking his chops for a 2012 run, suggesting that he, like me, views the Palin pick as a poor one. We shall see . . .

 

[Genx87]

I am looking right in the first section where it says the republicans have lost 6% points since 2004. To me that is simply a result of people unhappy with the party and Bush. Not a long term result of younger people entering the fray. I didnt think 1% point was really worth mentioning on the democratic side which is why I didnt point it out.

And like I said this study would be much more meaningful to me if they included the hispanic population. By 2050 146million people will be hispanic, up from about 60 million today.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: Genx87
I am looking right in the first section where it says the republicans have lost 6% points since 2004. To me that is simply a result of people unhappy with the party and Bush. Not a long term result of younger people entering the fray. I didnt think 1% point was really worth mentioning on the democratic side which is why I didnt point it out.

And like I said this study would be much more meaningful to me if they included the hispanic population. By 2050 146million people will be hispanic, up from about 60 million today.

Allow me to elucidate:

A Democracy Corps poll from the Washington firm of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner suggests voters ages 18 to 29 have undergone a striking political evolution in recent years.

Young Americans have become so profoundly alienated from Republican ideals on issues including the war in Iraq, global warming, same-sex marriage and illegal immigration that their defections suggest a political setback that could haunt Republicans "for many generations to come," the poll said.

The startling collapse of GOP support among young voters is reflected in the poll's findings that show two-thirds of young voters surveyed believe Democrats do a better job than Republicans of representing their views - even on issues Republicans once owned, such as terrorism and taxes.

And among GOP presidential candidates, only former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani registers with more positive views than negative with young voters, the poll shows.

The anti-GOP shift for this generation - which is expected to reach 50 million voters, or 17 percent of the electorate, in 2008 - represents a marked contrast from their predecessors, the Gen Xers born in the mid-'60s to mid-'70s whose demographic represented the strongest Republican voters in the nation, pollster Anna Greenberg said.

Today, "on every single issue, Democrats are doing better with young people - no matter what the issue is," said Greenberg.

Here is a graph of the same poll.

This Pew Research poll is even clearer:

Trends in the opinions of America's youngest voters are often a barometer of shifting political winds. And that appears to be the case in 2008. The current generation of young voters, who came of age during the George W. Bush years, is leading the way in giving the Democrats a wide advantage in party identification, just as the previous generation of young people who grew up in the Reagan years -- Generation X -- fueled the Republican surge of the mid-1990's.

In surveys conducted between October 2007 and March 2008, 58% of voters under age 30 identified or leaned toward the Democratic Party, compared with 33% who identified or leaned toward the GOP. The Democratic Party's current lead in party identification among young voters has more than doubled since the 2004 campaign, from 11 points to 25 points.

In fact, the Democrats' advantage among the young is now so broad-based that younger men as well as younger women favor the Democrats over the GOP -- making their age category the only one in the electorate in which men are significantly more inclined to self-identify as Democrats rather than as Republicans.

The poll shows that the Democrats have gained 12 points in party affiliation by young people since 1992, while the Republicans have lost 14 points in the same timeframe. The changes have been consistently one-sided, with the edge growing in every single election, and most dramatically in the past four years.

The days of conservative Republican Presidents are over for at least a generation IMO.

As for the Hispanic vote, that reflects more bad news for the Republicans. At this point Hispanic voters skew 57 to 23 percent in favor of the Democrats.

 

[Genx87]

Well it would have been nice if you provided that information with your original link. Your original link didnt really back up your claim. But thank you for providing more information.

The republicans really need to shore up the hispanic vote if they want to survive as a party.

Conservative is relative anyways. I think the days of a small govt minded president are long gone unfortunately.

 

[manowar821]

I hope the republican party crashes and burns. Same WOULD go for the democratic party, but they're the less dick-headed opponent of the R's, and so I'm using them for now.

I'm pretty sure we're doomed to nut jobs running the nation though.