How will an Abbas/Israel peace treaty affect the U.S. 2008 election?

[techs]

Well, imho, its looking more and more like Abbas will sign some form of "treaty" with Israel before the 2008 elections.
Of course, Abbas is the leader of a ruling junta that siezed power with the support of the U.S. and stays in power with the support of the U.S.
Which is the reason he cannot resist U.S. demands for and timing of, some kind of treaty.
Unless Abbas is convinced he won't live, or stay in power if he signs a treaty, imho its a done deal.
Not to mention a great opportunity for Blackwater.
So if Bush manages to anoint himself "Saviour of the Holy Land" before the election, could it change the outcome of the 2008 Presidential election?

 

[Lemon law]

I doubt Abbas can do jack doodly. He may be able to sign some deal in which he surrenders all Palestinian aspirations for $24.00 of glass beads. Abbas has already lost half of his constituency when he lost Gaza, doing such would lose the other half.

Meanwhile, no one in the real world would recognize such a paper deal and it would change nothing on the ground.

Right now this slated peace summit in November has some serious problems even getting off the ground. Israel is going to have to agree on some pre-conditions just to get anyone in the Arab world to attend. On top of that, last summers Lebanese incursion and the recent Syrian bombing is not helping. Nor is the constant GWB Iranian bashing
and total lack of US diplomacy on Iraq.

Early on in the GWB Presidency, GWB called for both a Palestinian State and moving towards hydrogen fueling of US automobiles. Somehow I consider the latter the more credible claim. Although both may be good objectives, you gotta walk the walk before you can credibly talk the talk.

 

[palehorse]

wtf does Blackwater have to do with Israel and Abbas making peace?

That was a ridiculous line to throw into an otherwise reasonable topic...

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: palehorse74
wtf does Blackwater have to do with Israel and Abbas making peace?

That was a ridiculous line to throw into an otherwise reasonable topic...

Blackwater will have to protect Abbas's life.

 

[piasabird]

Not at all since it has not happened and probably has a snowball's chance in Hell. I do applaud Rice's attempts to extend the olive branch to the palestinians and the Isrealis. Let's just say I have guarded optimism.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: piasabird
Not at all since it has not happened and probably has a snowball's chance in Hell. I do applaud Rice's attempts to extend the olive branch to the palestinians and the Isrealis. Let's just say I have guarded optimism.

How the peace treaty plays out, I don't know. But I have a strong belief that one will be signed.
Lets face it. Abbas was put into power by the US support of his coup. He owes us. And Bush desperately wants a signed peace (sic) of paper.
So I think a treaty will be signed. Sometime early next fall. Just in time for the Conventions.

 

[nageov3t]

signing a treaty doesn't really mean jack if neither side holds to it.

and even if they do, I don't think it will affect a thing in 2008. it's not like Bush has a VP running on a Bush presidency or something, and peace in Israel probably won't move the polls as long as the republicans continue doing things like voting against legislation that has like 70% national approval and pushing the "stay the course" line in Iraq.

 

[Lemon law]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: piasabird
Not at all since it has not happened and probably has a snowball's chance in Hell. I do applaud Rice's attempts to extend the olive branch to the palestinians and the Isrealis. Let's just say I have guarded optimism.

How the peace treaty plays out, I don't know. But I have a strong belief that one will be signed.
Lets face it. Abbas was put into power by the US support of his coup. He owes us. And Bush desperately wants a signed peace (sic) of paper.
So I think a treaty will be signed. Sometime early next fall. Just in time for the Conventions.

Tech may be right, maybe guarded optimism is warranted, and time will tell. But I would still think something started in November would bear fruit or flop long before next fall. Even though the Arafat Israeli deal took long diplomacy before it finally flopped over the right of return, you have to have something pretty substantial to start with to sustain a year of diplomacy.

But palehorse74 asks what blackwater has to do with such a peace deal, and received an answer that Abbas would need their services for protection. But in truth, everything in the Mid-east inter relates in complex ways. And when it comes to us failable humans, we are driven by more emotion than reason. And when negotiating peace, it usually helps to have some periods of stability before negotiating peace. Which simply is not happening and blackwater is an emotional issue with the Arab street. Pardon me if I suggest blackwater reminds them of why they hate Israel.

 

[Jaskalas]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
I doubt Abbas can do jack doodly. He may be able to sign some deal in which he surrenders all Palestinian aspirations for $24.00 of glass beads. Abbas has already lost half of his constituency when he lost Gaza, doing such would lose the other half.

Meanwhile, no one in the real world would recognize such a paper deal and it would change nothing on the ground.

Exactly.

 

[theeedude]

Probably will effect the 2008 election about as much as flying pigs blocking people from getting to the polls or the religious right contingent getting raptured before they get to vote 😀

 

[palehorse]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Pardon me if I suggest blackwater reminds them of why they hate Israel.

you're ridiculous.

 

[Jhhnn]

The Israelis have always talked a good peace plan, but when it comes right down to it, they've always been unwilling to make the concessions necessary to achieve it. Today is no different.

 

[palehorse]

Originally posted by: Jhhnn
The Palestinians have often talked a good peace plan, but when it comes right down to it, they've always been unwilling to make the concessions necessary to achieve it. Today is no different.

fixed. 😛

 

[FoBoT]

null, Americans don't vote based on one small slice of foreign policy