How soon until magnetic HDs become obsolete?

[ronbo613]

They're about $20 now.

Yeah, I'd like to think that this is what he was talking about...

 

[_Rick_]

The cheapest per-GB SSD is around $0.50/GB. The cheapest per-GB HDD is around $0.03/GB. We're still off by over an order of magnitude. Shingled recording will add a bit more scaling to HDDs, and as for SSDs, we're already at 19/20nm, and the limit of scaling is... what... 7nm or thereabouts? But more importantly, we're almost at the point where scaling doesn't result in cost reductions per transistor because of the sheer difficulty of the process (e.g., each wafer requiring many more steps).

I was talking about cheapest per unit prices, where that factor is currently approaching 10, and sometimes dipping below. 7nm should eventually make bulk flash around 8 times cheaper than it is now.
450mm wafers should make for a further slight reduction in cost, as masks yield more dies, and less (but more expensive) machinery is needed for the same production volume. But that's still at least a decade out, and who knows what happens in the mean time. Still, it looks like HDDs would need a paradigm shift to maintain their current advantage, while with flash the next few evolutions are much more foreseeable in what they will yield.

 

[Morbus]

Yeah, I'd like to think that this is what he was talking about...

Exactly.

 

[norseamd]

It has nothing to do with the computerization of anything, but specifically NAND intended for the consumer electronics markets. Other markets have different requirements, and products to suit them exist, though not at the same low prices.
Why? If you leave your SSD in a non-climate-controlled storage unit, or car, or desert hut, for several months, having hammered it to anywhere close to its rated endurance, and expect everything to be peachy, the problem is not the SSD. If stored in a climate-controlled environment, all will be fine. It's probably not the best treatment for a well-used HDD, either.

the same reason you would leave a vehicle in hot tropical weather. just because there are ways around it does not mean there is no point in making them. what about motorcycles? they pick up more vibrations than cars right?

how do ssds work in india or indonesia anyways?

 

[Cerb]

the same reason you would leave a vehicle in hot tropical weather.

Because you don't care about it, and/or can't afford to keep it running?

just because there are ways around it does not mean there is no point in making them.

It's not about making them. It's about getting consumers t pay several times more per GB for them, when the primary benefits are in use cases they won't have. If your music, maps, or dash cam videos disappear, oh well. Just be glad some vermin or bugs didn't make their homes in it, during that time (or, find some did, and deal with that first). Very few people would take that trade, compared to having more storage or cheaper storage. If dealing with aftermarket stuff, though, you can certainly buy suitable SSDs, or SD cards, if you like.

how do ssds work in india or indonesia anyways?

Same as anywhere else, just with lower retention time than the same SSDs in Holland.

 

[norseamd]

Because you don't care about it, and/or can't afford to keep it running?

would think that being able to turn off a vehicle in tropical areas would be a regular operating procedure

 

[Cerb]

would think that being able to turn off a vehicle in tropical areas would be a regular operating procedure

Do people in hot climates regularly own cars they only go on vacation with, but leave in their yards, in the heat, off, for most of the year?

 

[code65536]

Yeah, I'd like to think that this is what he was talking about...

Whoa. If that qualifies for "on the horizon", then nuclear fusion oughta be described as "imminent". 😛

Remember how quantum computation was described as "on the horizon" a couple of decades ago? Turns out that going from "proof of concept" to something capable of doing something useful (much less something capable of competing in the market) requires a lot of mind-boggling engineering and dealing with problems for which no solution currently exists. So this "proof of concept" requires lasers, cesium, and super-cooled materials. They have no idea how to make it persistent (kinda important), and it stores just 4 states. Not saying that it's impossible. But, honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if a usable quantum hard drive is another century off in the future.