How soon before we start seeing new stuff?

[jackace]

As the title says, what is the consensus on when we will start seeing new stuff hit the shelves?

 

[Acanthus]

Well, there will probably be some new stuff here and there like always, but the next large jump in gpu performance should be when the process technology goes to 28nm.

TSMC has just started sampling at this size, as has Global Foundries (AMD).

It takes about a 6 month turnaround time to launch a part on a new process after sampling begins (if things go well, things have not been going well lately which is why we have had a long lull of tiny gains in performance)

The short answer (and this is opinion): November if things go well, February if things go poorly.

 

[edplayer]

high end videocards that use 28nm gpus won't be out till the 2nd half of 2011

 

[Acanthus]

high end videocards that use 28nm gpus won't be out till the 2nd half of 2011

this is true.

Both AMD and Nvidia tend to start out with low and midrange parts on a new process, and the flagship cards tend to come out later.

 

[DaveSimmons]

I'm looking forward to the gtx 475 myself, something faster than the 470 with power, heat and noise levels that are hopefully more like the 460.

 

[happy medium]

this is true.

Both AMD and Nvidia tend to start out with low and midrange parts on a new process, and the flagship cards tend to come out later.

really? are you sure about that?

 

[Lonyo]

really? are you sure about that?

Tell me what the first ATI 40nm card was.
Then tell me what the first NV 40nm card was.

Then tell me what process the GTX260/280 used.

 

[happy medium]

Tell me what the first ATI 40nm card was.
Then tell me what the first NV 40nm card was.

Then tell me what process the GTX260/280 used.

He said tends ,which for me means usually! not 1 time.
Tends for me is more then once or twice.

 

[jackace]

So would you guys say current prices should stay pretty stable for the next ~6 months?

 

[DaveSimmons]

No, nvidia is supposed to be dropping the 470 prices again, and if the 475 is as good as the 460 it should force ATI to cut prices on the 5850 and 5870.

 

[lsv]

Second quarter of 2011 is too far, I should have just bought a 5850, gaming is addictive

 

[happy medium]

So would you guys say current prices should stay pretty stable for the next ~6 months?

I would wait a few weeks , if I was buying a card.
No they will be the most unstable for the next 6 months.

 

[Wreckage]

So would you guys say current prices should stay pretty stable for the next ~6 months?

No. They will fight it out in the 4th qtr to get your holiday money. That's when they sell more cards than any other quarter.

Expect sales on the 465/470/480 as they clear those out to make room for the newer chips. Until we hear more about Southern Islands (wheter it's high end or low end) we won't know what ATI is going to do. I'm guess at the very least a better card than the 5830 for the same price. I also think the 5850 will drop to compete with the 460.

Short answer....the prices will change towards the holidays.

 

[lsv]

I hope they fight it out, I really want something faster. But this video card market is terrible :\

 

[jackace]

I hope they fight it out, I really want something faster. But this video card market is terrible :\

Yeah I have an e4200 and a 4850 I want to upgrade badly, but don't want to spend a lot of money or buy and have prices drop a ton the next week. I'm fine with a $20-$30 drop in prices but I hate it when stuff drops almost $50 a couple weeks after I buy it.

 

[tviceman]

No. They will fight it out in the 4th qtr to get your holiday money. That's when they sell more cards than any other quarter.

Expect sales on the 465/470/480 as they clear those out to make room for the newer chips. Until we hear more about Southern Islands (wheter it's high end or low end) we won't know what ATI is going to do. I'm guess at the very least a better card than the 5830 for the same price. I also think the 5850 will drop to compete with the 460.

Short answer....the prices will change towards the holidays.

I think the big question is WHEN will Nvidia tweak, update, and release the refresh to their flagship GF100?

 

[Wreckage]

I think the big question is WHEN will Nvidia tweak, update, and release the refresh to their flagship GF100?

If you are talking about a GTX 5xx, I'm betting that won't happen until next year.

This fall/4q will probably bring GTX 475/485/495 plus some mid to low end GF108 stuff.

While ATI will have "Southern Islands" which they may brand as HD6xxx

Don't expect a big leap in performance until next year with the GTX5xx and Northern Islands.

 

[tviceman]

If you are talking about a GTX 5xx, I'm betting that won't happen until next year.

This fall/4q will probably bring GTX 475/485/495 plus some mid to low end GF108 stuff.

While ATI will have "Southern Islands" which they may brand as HD6xxx

Don't expect a big leap in performance until next year with the GTX5xx and Northern Islands.

I'm not talking Nvidia's next-gen architecture, I'm talking about a refresh to the current. I maintain that since 28nm is a ways off, and there are currently some tough trade offs with the GF100 architecture (great performance, lousy power consumption, noise, heat) I maintain that it's in Nvidia's best interest to refresh (i.e. tweak, modify, respin, whatever) GF100 in an attempt to squeeze out a more efficient architecture that lessens the trade offs and improves performance (even if just a little) - akin to what they did when they released NV35 to correct NV30's missteps. Nvidia is fighting for more than just the high end consumer market - they'd get more sales in the HPC / Professional market with improved thermals and performance/watt.

But then again maybe Nvidia doesn't want to waste the resources on the current gen high end market. If a fully unlocked GF104 can perform in between a gtx470 and gtx480, and they can put two 384 shader gf104's on 1 card and stay within PCIe specs (which is more than likely), then in essence they'll have two new higher end cards and will be much cheaper to manufacture. Hmmmm..... Now I'm starting to wonder if in fact they won't do a 40nm GF100 refresh.

 

[Soleron]

Southern Islands?

Rumoured to be October by at least two sources.

 

[tweakboy]

I would say ATI 6xxx series by November and nVidia new 490 GTX card deceember or january or march. gg and gb

 

[bryanW1995]

If you are talking about a GTX 5xx, I'm betting that won't happen until next year.

This fall/4q will probably bring GTX 475/485/495 plus some mid to low end GF108 stuff.

While ATI will have "Southern Islands" which they may brand as HD6xxx

Don't expect a big leap in performance until next year with the GTX5xx and Northern Islands.

I hate to agree with you but, um, uh, I mostly agree with you. I have heard some rumors about a 400mm2 6870 that will be as much of an improvement on 5870 as 5870 was on 4870, however. we'll see what happens.