Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: KenGr
Having spent some time doing computer modeling of complex thermodynamic systems, I'm very skeptical of the validity of the climate computer modeling. The number of assumptions required may allow the theory to be proven but will probably prevent much accuracy. I think we're a long way from any definitive answers.
Yep I've done similar calculations (thermal modeling is a major part my graduate research) and the possibility for errors is just enormous. One simple assumption about something that we don't have enough data on can dramatically alter the conclusions.
I just briefly scanned this thread, so sorry if these are repeats, but they are my thoughts on the subject:
1) It is a well known fact that cities alter the weather - in fact many storms are produced a few miles directly downwind of a city which is easilly seen on radars. One way cities alter the weather is by raising the LOCAL temperature. Cars burn fuel producing heat. Huses, industry, etc. all use energy producing heat. Where does this heat go? Into the air. The bigger the city the hotter it is than the surroundings (which is easilly seen on detailed temperature maps). The pavement on the streets and the dark shingles all absorb the suns energy and release it as heat - where outside the city plants absorb the energy and don't release as much as heat. Thus again the city is hotter than the surroundings. But this is only a LOCAL effect.
2) The temperatures used in global warming debates are officially taken at airports for the most part.
3) Airports are located in or next to the cities that are locally increasing in heat.
4) So the ground data shows clear warming as cities grow - but does this mean the rest of the world is warming? The answer is we have no data and thus no real way of knowing. The data shows the cities are getting hotter - but there is no ground temperature data even being taken in much of the wilderness areas.
5) What data do we have? NASA data from satellites shows that on average the non-city areas are not getting hotter. So I myself am not that conserned. Even if you pretend the NASA data isn't valid at the Earth surface (a common rebuttal to the NASA data), it is still valid in the upper atmosphere. This data clearly refutes the global warming simulations which show the upper atmosphere will be increasing in temperature as well.
6) Conclusion: Either the data or the simulations (or both) that show global warming exists is flawed. But that doesn't mean that global warming is false.
7) Instead most people studying this feel we need 10-15 more years of data to really know the answer (as well as 10-15 years of improved modeling and more powerful computers to more accurately model it). Only then will we have a better answer. Until then it is just assumptions.
Now lets for the sake of argument assume global warming is occuring. And of course we have SOME effect on our surroundings. Next the big question is why. Suppose you had a greenhouse. Suppose inside the greenhouse you measured the temperature and it was steady day after day and year after year. Now suppose you suddenly bring in tons of oil and light it on fire inside the greenhouse. And at the same time lets suppose you put a very thin coating on your greenhouse glass that probably makes it retain more heat - but the layer is not very powerful and not much is applied and it isn't applied very evenly with some large glass sections not getting any coating at all. Suddenly with this extra glass coating and roaring fire the thermometer next to the fire increases - day after day and year after year. Why did the thermometer go up? Is it (A) because a new fire was built inside the greenhouse or (B) because the greenhouse may be slightly more efficient. I'd have to say duh to that question: (A) is by far the major cause. (B) will likely have a very minor effect, but the temperature rise is almost intirely due to (A). Sadly I've never heard any global warming debates considering (A) they only focus on the much more minor effect of (B).