The only way, as previously mentioned, is to get a Used Oil Analysis (UOA) and make sure they give you at least a TBN reading...TAN is nice too.
Once you start getting into the 2-3 TBN range, you're oil has been mostly depleted of its ability to neutralize the acids that build up in the oil...at that point, you should change your oil and filter before you get to a TBN of 1.
The goal is to keep your oil fresh enough where the TBN stays higher, and the Insoluables (dirt and debris in the oil) stay low.
As also mentioned, water - especially for those in the cold climates - is a problem. Going for a long ride once a week is not a bad idea. Realize though that it can take upwards of 20 minutes for the engine oil (not the engine coolant, which is what your temp guage is measured off of) to get up to full operating temp...and that's what's needed to start burning off excess water.
Another way to extend the life of your oil is to avoid excessive idling - it dumps larger than normal amounts of gas into the oil as the vehicle is running rich....especially this time of year in the winter.
Probably the most popular oil analysis - but certainly not the only - on BITOG is Blackstone Laboratories. They'll send you a free test kit that you can USPS back to them for like under $2 USD. When you do that, you send them back a UOA sample and pay them about $30 USD. It's $30 USD for them as you'll need to pay the extra $10 USD for a TBN analysis, which tells you the life left in your oil.
If you drive the same, and use the same oil time every time, you can basically determine how long you can safely go between oil changes. It's also a nice thing to have if you plan on keeping your ride a long while, as you can see how the engine is wearing, if you have coolant leaks, if you have excess dirt ingestion, etc.
Blackstone Laboratories: Free Test Kit
Pretty interesting stuff once you get into it all...
Chuck