Squisher
Lifer
- Aug 17, 2000
- 21,204
- 66
- 91
I've heard numbers up to 6% Who knows.
Do I think that the economy would ever recover from their demise? Yes. How long? I'd say the recession/possible depression that'll last 2-3 years will be stretched to more like 6-10 years with the fact the suppliers will fail, which will break the supply chain of the transplants and the cost of autos will skyrocket.
There is no way that these companies will reorganize, there is no DIP money available. I don't know if you've heard, but there is a credit crisis. Any chapter 11 filing will be moved into chapter 7 and the assets will be liquidated. Not that anybody has money to buy much.
btw-the cost of letting them fail might be up to $500 billion
Atomic Playboy
Lifer
- Feb 6, 2007
- 16,432
- 1
- 81
Others of us are just wondering why you're crapping on the thread with this nonsense...
OP: I drive a Buick. Does that count?
Squisher
Lifer
- Aug 17, 2000
- 21,204
- 66
- 91
But, we all know it'll take $75-125 billion to get them through the recession. I wonder how much that number ($75-125 b) comes down if they force the wage concessions on the UAW that they want to do???
You know the $15 billion is just to get them to a point where Obama's people can look over the books and essentially negotiate with the UAW in a more relaxed manner than what happened last night. I guarantee you'll see a replay of last night with the people across the table from the UAW to be more perceived to be their friends. Sometimes you're willing to give a little more when you don't feel like the guy doing the taking has a knife to your throat and is smiling.
My company makes a lot of sensors and microcontrollers for cars. The big3 are all our customers..in fact we supply more automotive chips than anybody else. My personal project is on automotive radar technology (collision avoidance)..so yes, not so good.
I own a car that is GM-branded but is actually a toyota.
makes me like toyota that much more.
fvkign tanks they are.
thin sheet-metal-coated tanks but tanks nonetheless.
makes me like toyota that much more.
fvkign tanks they are.
thin sheet-metal-coated tanks but tanks nonetheless.
I'd be sad to see Ford get dragged down, as they (claim) that they don't need the money unless the other two collapse.
My wife's vehicle is a 08 Ford Escape, that's about it. I work in IT consulting and our customer base is government agencies.
Bignate603
Lifer
- Sep 5, 2000
- 13,897
- 1
- 0
My company is a big 3 supplier. Most of our big business comes from sales to automotive, aerospace and building controls. None of those industries are doing so well.
- Nov 27, 1999
- 64,980
- 388
- 126
SarcasticDwarf
Diamond Member
- Jun 8, 2001
- 9,574
- 1
- 76
All the statistics being thrown around are biased. Consider that the three only directly employ a very few people. They have also cut their production and workforce in half over the last couple of years. Most of the people counted to be employed are not supplies but actually the hundreds of thousands of sales people at dealerships. So by pure employment numbers alone the numbers are way off.
Directly. Though, I have planned for these end days. I have saved enough cash to live for 18 months and pay for the rest of my masters degree. I had planned on switching industries so I will be largely unaffected by this whole mess anyway.
The companies as we no them today will likely no longer exist, but they will likely carry on in name at the very least. Other auto companies may buy them (like Ford bought Volvo and Jaguar), and if so, possibly some of the "lines" will go away (like Saturn), but I bet the names will continue. Other auto companies will not let the factories go fallow.
R
R
It would take 180 customers going thru checkout at Walmart, assuming each averaged $100 in purchases, to equal the sales tax revenue of the sale of an average priced automobile.
The economic impact, should the Big3 fail, would be an epic economic catastrophe.
The economic impact, should the Big3 fail, would be an epic economic catastrophe.
Yes, the drop in auto sales has hurt the economy (decline in consumer spending in general), but unless I am mistaken, it is not like GM+Chrysler are selling tons of cars a month and having great sales and no bailout means these sales stop. Their sales are down drastically as is, and if someone really wants to buy a car, they will buy another brand and the govt still gets the sales tax.
I think the lack of competition to the foreign companies will raises prices for all remaining cars, which will significantly hurt the economy.
And I think there are a lot of companies who will be affected that people don't even think of. Freight/trucking companies... Companies with fleet vehicles that have to adapt to new vehicles other then crown victorias, etc... For instance, replacing police cars with other make/model cars may require purchasing new equipment that may have been reused previously... lightbars, etc... Plus what car that doesn't come from the big 3 would even make a suitable police car? ford crown vics now, chevy caprices last decade, and dodge's previously are the standard... A police car is really best if it is a beefy, solid automobile. Body on frame construction, heavy weight, etc. A simple collision that may just require a new bumper, fender, and hood on a crown vic could fuck up the unibody, fender, bumper, hood, crumple zones, etc on a unibody car. Modern cars like that are designed to sacrifice the car rather easily in order to protect the driver. With a crown vic, a cop can pit another vehicle, etc with very little damage to their own car.
That being said, I do believe the big 3 should file chapter 11, drop UAW, and streamline their business... It will be good for everyone. The union needs to accept the fact that their members HAVING a job, WITH benefits, even if the job doesn't pay as much, doesn't have as good of benefits... is better than NOT having a job. Which is what will happen if the companies go out of business.
And I think there are a lot of companies who will be affected that people don't even think of. Freight/trucking companies... Companies with fleet vehicles that have to adapt to new vehicles other then crown victorias, etc... For instance, replacing police cars with other make/model cars may require purchasing new equipment that may have been reused previously... lightbars, etc... Plus what car that doesn't come from the big 3 would even make a suitable police car? ford crown vics now, chevy caprices last decade, and dodge's previously are the standard... A police car is really best if it is a beefy, solid automobile. Body on frame construction, heavy weight, etc. A simple collision that may just require a new bumper, fender, and hood on a crown vic could fuck up the unibody, fender, bumper, hood, crumple zones, etc on a unibody car. Modern cars like that are designed to sacrifice the car rather easily in order to protect the driver. With a crown vic, a cop can pit another vehicle, etc with very little damage to their own car.
That being said, I do believe the big 3 should file chapter 11, drop UAW, and streamline their business... It will be good for everyone. The union needs to accept the fact that their members HAVING a job, WITH benefits, even if the job doesn't pay as much, doesn't have as good of benefits... is better than NOT having a job. Which is what will happen if the companies go out of business.
Government is gonna let Chrysler die, because they have no plans to use the bailout money other than buying time to find a buyer.
GM will get picked up by another company when it is near death, for a super discount, it has too much symbolic value to America to be shelved permanently.
Ford is okay, they just need a line of credit.
UAW is fucked.
GM will get picked up by another company when it is near death, for a super discount, it has too much symbolic value to America to be shelved permanently.
Ford is okay, they just need a line of credit.
UAW is fucked.
Also, let's look at the current poll numbers.
6 and 12 versus 130 looks like a large gap...
but thats 12.16% working in a company that would likely be affected by the failure of those companies. That is more than 1 in 10...Imagine if... say over a period of 6 months or a year (while businesses closed up shop, dealerships went out of business, etc) 10% of the working US population became unemployed Even 5%. Some would get rehired, but not all. There aren't that many open jobs, especially in this economy. The drain on unemployment, etc would be insane. The number of currently employed I just found is 145 million. Even if just 1% of those 145 million became and stayed unemployed, thats 1.45 million people who would now be a drain on the government... Who would now not be paying much taxes, who would now not be buying goods, paying sales tax, etc.
I know there are A LOT of factors I am not considering, and this poll is hardly scientific, but my post is just meant to be illustrative, not accurate.
6 and 12 versus 130 looks like a large gap...
but thats 12.16% working in a company that would likely be affected by the failure of those companies. That is more than 1 in 10...Imagine if... say over a period of 6 months or a year (while businesses closed up shop, dealerships went out of business, etc) 10% of the working US population became unemployed Even 5%. Some would get rehired, but not all. There aren't that many open jobs, especially in this economy. The drain on unemployment, etc would be insane. The number of currently employed I just found is 145 million. Even if just 1% of those 145 million became and stayed unemployed, thats 1.45 million people who would now be a drain on the government... Who would now not be paying much taxes, who would now not be buying goods, paying sales tax, etc.
I know there are A LOT of factors I am not considering, and this poll is hardly scientific, but my post is just meant to be illustrative, not accurate.
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