How many Americans will die from Covid-19?

[MtnMan]

Welcome to the Dakotas... 41 deaths per 100k in just the last 30 days... that's an annualized death rate from COVID of 0.5% of total population from known cases. If behaviors in these Trump strongholds were applied to the whole US, we'd be looking at another 2 million deaths across the US in the next year - before accounting for how much worse the death rate will go once hospitals are overloaded:

Doctors Fear More Death As Dakotas Experience Virus 'Sorrow'

With coronavirus cases running rampant in the Dakotas and elected leaders refusing to forcefully intervene, the burden of pushing people to take the virus seriously has increasingly been put on the families of those who have died.

minnesota.cbslocal.com

North Dakota reported that 309 people died from COVID-19 in the past 30 days, more than all other periods combined. The state shot to the top of the nation in deaths per capita in the last 30 days, with roughly 41 deaths per 100,000 people, according to data from Johns Hopkins. On Saturday, North Dakota reported 15 additional deaths and 1,615 new cases across the state.

North Dakota - population 760k, with >100 known COVID deaths and 9000+ new cases, in just the last week.

The Dakota's, where 1 in 10 people have or have had COVID. 1 in 10!

 

[dullard]

oh wow guys you are .. i hope .. way off the mark. the majority of those who would die, have died already.

I know that you have already posted that you were wrong. So, please don't take this reply as an attack against you. But I wanted to point out that either today or tomorrow, about 3.5 months later, both American deaths and World deaths will have doubled from your Oct 20 post. Thereby making your "majority of deaths" estimate unfortunately incorrect.

Oct 20, 2020: American Deaths: 221,747: World Deaths: 1,126,000
Jan 31, 2020: American Deaths: 441,331 (99% increase): World Deaths: 2,229,697 (98% increase)
Thankfully, this first infection wave seems to be easing. Hopefully, we do not get a second world wave.

On topic for the post, many projections are almost 600,000 deaths by May 1. One example:

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

That would sadly make the majority of people wrong who voted in the original poll as 500k or less. 🙁

 

[Muse]

I know that you have already posted that you were wrong. So, please don't take this reply as an attack against you. But I wanted to point out that either today or tomorrow, about 3.5 months later, both American deaths and World deaths will have doubled from your Oct 20 post. Thereby making your "majority of deaths" estimate unfortunately incorrect.

Oct 20, 2020: American Deaths: 221,747: World Deaths: 1,126,000
Jan 31, 2020: American Deaths: 441,331 (99% increase): World Deaths: 2,229,697 (98% increase)
Thankfully, this first infection wave seems to be easing. Hopefully, we do not get a second world wave.

On topic for the post, many projections are almost 600,000 deaths by May 1. One example:

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

That would sadly make the majority of people wrong who voted in the original poll as 500k or less. 🙁

I voted over 1,000,000 although I imagined that 600,000 was a realistic guess when this thread was started. Now, it's looking like 1,000,000 might be the better, but 600,000 is looking low now. It depends on how dedicated the public is to tamping things down while the vaccines are rolled out. Of course, that's just in countries with a lot of money. Most African countries haven't had a single dose of vaccine administered to date.

Edit: I've seen little on this and only sporadically, but I figure that the number of people who have contracted covid-19 in the USA is roughly 4x the confirmed cases. The vaccines, I hear, confer better immunity to infection going forward than having been infected and recovered, but the combination will help reach the point of significant herd immunity. Hopefully that will be happening before fall.

 

[DigDog]

I know that you have already posted that you were wrong. So, please don't take this reply as an attack against you. But I wanted to point out that either today or tomorrow, about 3.5 months later, both American deaths and World deaths will have doubled from your Oct 20 post. Thereby making your "majority of deaths" estimate unfortunately incorrect.

Oct 20, 2020: American Deaths: 221,747: World Deaths: 1,126,000
Jan 31, 2020: American Deaths: 441,331 (99% increase): World Deaths: 2,229,697 (98% increase)
Thankfully, this first infection wave seems to be easing. Hopefully, we do not get a second world wave.

On topic for the post, many projections are almost 600,000 deaths by May 1. One example:

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

That would sadly make the majority of people wrong who voted in the original poll as 500k or less. 🙁

i tell you, i am reminded of this every day.

I started wearing a mask in April, when i came back from holiday. I spent a month in Argentina where the spread of the virus was delayed .. by about a month. Since April, i've NEVER gone out without a mask.

I have also gone to the supermarket today and obviously NOBODY i saw on my way there was wearing a mask. People only wear masks when they are in the stores, but when they are walking around , they don't. They dont fucking understand that it's a airborne virus, you catch it THROUGH AIR. Not store air, not airplane air, ANY air. If another maskless idiot just walked down the same street and you breathe in some of his exhaled air, you get corona.

.. once again i have been made a fool of because i think other people are like me. That they would understand that if everyone wears a mask, in a very short time the virus reservoir will be isolated.
This could have all ended last year. By August we could all have been back to normal, and it was simple, JUST DONT CATCH CORONA FOR 2 MONTHS. Live 2 months like you were in a hospital, and then everyone can go back to the beach. But no.

 

[dullard]

Edit: I've seen little on this and only sporadically, but I figure that the number of people who have contracted covid-19 in the USA is roughly 4x the confirmed cases. The vaccines, I hear, confer better immunity to infection going forward than having been infected and recovered, but the combination will help reach the point of significant herd immunity. Hopefully that will be happening before fall.

The asymptomatic rate, last I saw, was about 17%. That would give us ~5.4 million more US cases if we assumed that all asymptomatic people aren't in the tally (unlikely).

https://jammi.utpjournals.press/doi/full/10.3138/jammi-2020-0030

This 17% number is a lot lower than originally reported. Basically, they found out if you wait longer, most infected people eventually do get symptoms.

What is unknown (to me) is how many infected people just never bothered to get tested. I have a niece that was infected, my sister-in-law (her mother) had the same symptoms at the same time and never got tested. So, only one of the two is in the official tally. Does anyone have a up-to-date number on the percent of positive people that didn't get tested?

 

[dullard]

This could have all ended last year. By August we could all have been back to normal, and it was simple, JUST DONT CATCH CORONA FOR 2 MONTHS. Live 2 months like you were in a hospital, and then everyone can go back to the beach. But no.

I agree with this 100%.

 

[Muse]

They dont fucking understand that it's a airborne virus, you catch it THROUGH AIR. Not store air, not airplane air, ANY air. If another maskless idiot just walked down the same street and you breathe in some of his exhaled air, you get corona.

.. once again i have been made a fool of because i think other people are like me. That they would understand that if everyone wears a mask, in a very short time the virus reservoir will be isolated.
This could have all ended last year. By August we could all have been back to normal, and it was simple, JUST DONT CATCH CORONA FOR 2 MONTHS. Live 2 months like you were in a hospital, and then everyone can go back to the beach. But no.

Yeah, the Chinese stomped on corona by locking down ... hard.

Well, you're right about some stuff, very wrong about some stuff.

Here's the thing with masks, indoors vs. outdoors: I didn't understand this early on and thought like you... get exposed, you get infected... period. But that's not actually right at all. Theoretically, it's possible, but very unlikely. The concept to grasp is viral load. You are at special risk of illness if you spend something like 15 minutes indoors where people are infected, breathing, maybe coughing/sneezing, whatever. That's just a sketch, not exact parameters, and it depends on the size of the room, the density of the people in there, the circulation of air, how many are infected, etc. Outdoors, where there's almost for certain a breeze, the density of viral particles is going to be far less than in typical indoor settings. So, if you happen to take in some SARS-CoV-2 particles outdoors, the "viral load" you will suffer is apt to be pretty small and your likelihood of getting ill is small, your body will probably have little difficulty fighting off that relatively small amount of infecting viral particles. You could catch it outdoors, sure, but if you get a minimal exposure, the risk is far less than the exposure you're apt to get in many indoor situations, especially if you're exposed for long. If you get a heavy viral load when infected, your odds of severe illness is way way way higher than with relatively minimal exposures is an important thing to realize. I was relatively paranoid about infection until I came to understand this.

Myself, if I'm out in my yard, gardening, I don't wear a mask. The virus is around, people are walking the streets, etc. who are ill, but I'm not going to get more than a minimal viral exposure in my yard, so I don't bother wearing a mask. I'm not apt to get within 6, even 15 feet of anyone. When I roller skate (like I will in 3-4 hours for ~40 minutes) I will wear an N95 mask. I'd probably be fine without it, but I'm going to get far more exposure out there on the street from passersby, cars, bicyclists than anything I'll get in my yard, is my thinking, so 'wear the mask' is my credo.

I've been indoors with others 2x since mid-March... once at local grocery, once at local big box store. N95 both times.

 

[Muse]

The asymptomatic rate, last I saw, was about 17%. That would give us ~5.4 million more US cases if we assumed that all asymptomatic people aren't in the tally (unlikely).

https://jammi.utpjournals.press/doi/full/10.3138/jammi-2020-0030

This 17% number is a lot lower than originally reported. Basically, they found out if you wait longer, most infected people eventually do get symptoms.

What is unknown (to me) is how many infected people just never bothered to get tested. I have a niece that was infected, my sister-in-law (her mother) had the same symptoms at the same time and never got tested. So, only one of the two is in the official tally. Does anyone have a up-to-date number on the percent of positive people that didn't get tested?

I saw a figure less than 2 weeks ago that something like 55-59% (don't remember the figure) of people who contract covid-19 are asymptomatic. Or maybe the number referred to the percent of people who are infected by people who are asymptomatic at the time of passing on the infection, I don't know. I think it was that. Anyway, I have a very hard time thinking that only 17% of infected people are undetected in the official case count. I figure there are more than 3x infected than confirmed. 5x wouldn't surprise me at all. They just don't know.

 

[DigDog]

viral load is not a factor in novel viruses.
ugh .. there is no way to simplify this. In theory, a novel virus is a virus that you have NO protection against, none at all. One single individual virus can infect you, because your immune system does not recognize it as an intruder.
But, there is a strong indication that older people have a higher resistance to infection as they would have previous fought other viruses that use the same receptors as CV19. So viral load *is* a factor. However, you are still at risk of infection following any exposition to the virus. (i do not know how efficient the virus is at binding to a receptor; even iof given the freedom to attack an organism, how many individuals successfully attach to the receptor so they can replicate?)

look, the point is still the same. The virus needs to circulate in order to remain alive. If you cut off all the opportunities it has to jump carriers, for the length of time that it takes the last carrier to completely fight off the virus (or die), then the virus dies out.

We criticized China's draconic measures, with the army threatening to shoot people who were outside of quarantine, but it worked. We could use a little bit of gun-pointing here in the Uk, i tell you.


oh by the way, i have a strong suspicion, based on my dealing with a lot of people reporting asymptomatic infections, that these are not asymptomatic at all - they are simply reported as fevers, coughs. I do not know a single person of the hundreds we deal with in our medical insurance, that has tested positive and yet reported to be completely symptoms-free, as a classical asymptomatic carrier.

 

[pete6032]

If another maskless idiot just walked down the same street and you breathe in some of his exhaled air, you get corona.

That's really not how it works...

I have passed thousands of maskless people on sidewalks since March 2020, many less than 6 feet away and I have not contracted COVID-19.

 

[BarkingGhostar]

I didn't vote because last March I said it would be more than two million. This poll is too conservative.

 

[Fritzo]

I honestly believe we'll get to 750K to 1million deaths.

 

[DigDog]

That's really not how it works...

I have passed thousands of maskless people on sidewalks since March 2019, many less than 6 feet away and I have not contracted COVID-19.

were *you* wearing a mask ?

 

[pete6032]

were *you* wearing a mask ?

No. I don't wear a mask when I am outdoors unless it is cold and snowy.

 

[dullard]

viral load is not a factor in novel viruses.
ugh .. there is no way to simplify this. In theory, a novel virus is a virus that you have NO protection against, none at all. One single individual virus can infect you, because your immune system does not recognize it as an intruder.

So, here is the thing, we have a pretty good immune system to Covid-19. The problem is that our immune system is too good. It goes into hyperdrive and our immune system is what is killing people.

The difference is that some people get a high initial viral load, and other people get a low initial viral load. I couldn't quickly find the time for the novel coronavirus to double, but I'll just use a typical 0.5 day period. If you inhale 1 and only 1 infectious virus, then in 5 days you'll likely have ~1024 viruses. Compare that to a hypothetical person right next to you at the time you got it. Suppose that unlucky person inhaled 1000 viral particles.

You have a ~5 day jump on the person right next to you. Thus, your immune system has 5 more days to learn to kill it before going into overdrive. Those 5 extra days are crucial. The last time that I saw data on it, people with an initial viral load of under ~2000 were generally mild cases, if they had any symptoms at all. People with an initial viral load over 2000 were often screwed.

That is where masks come into play. If masks can cut your initial exposure by 25%, then you get a full extra day for your immune system to learn. When we are talking only a few days between survival and death, that one extra day really helps. In fact, there is a concept out there that masks are creating a form of vaccine. Inhale a tiny amount of virus, and you might actually have just created yourself a live-vaccine. Too tiny to become seriously ill, but strong enough to get some immunity.

 

[dullard]

I saw a figure less than 2 weeks ago that something like 55-59% (don't remember the figure) of people who contract covid-19 are asymptomatic. Or maybe the number referred to the percent of people who are infected by people who are asymptomatic at the time of passing on the infection, I don't know. I think it was that. Anyway, I have a very hard time thinking that only 17% of infected people are undetected in the official case count. I figure there are more than 3x infected than confirmed. 5x wouldn't surprise me at all. They just don't know.

I think that large percentage that you are referring to are pre-symptomatic people. They will likely have symptoms, but do not have them yet. Most transmission is before you know you have symptoms.

 

[darkswordsman17]

That's really not how it works...

I have passed thousands of maskless people on sidewalks since March 2019, many less than 6 feet away and I have not contracted COVID-19.

Yeah but how many since March 2020, because that's really the important time period.

 

[DigDog]

No. I don't wear a mask when I am outdoors unless it is cold and snowy.

ladies and gentlemen, an american hero(tm)

So, here is the thing, we have a pretty good immune system to Covid-19. The problem is that our immune system is too good. It goes into hyperdrive and our immune system is what is killing people.

you are confusing Cytokine Storm with novelvirus proprieties. I am by no means an immunologist but i feel you are missing some important information - given what i have been able to read on the virus in these last months.

 

[Captante]

I didn't vote because last March I said it would be more than two million. This poll is too conservative.

At the time I voted originally I think 700k was the highest option available so that's what I chose.

Unfortunately at this point I concur ... 2 million Covid-related deaths may well be optimistic by the time we're finished.

😵

 

[manly]

At the time I voted originally I think 700k was the highest option available so that's what I chose.

Unfortunately at this point I concur ... 2 million Covid-related deaths may well be optimistic by the time we're finished.

😵

Come on, you should know better than this. Although it's very difficult to say with any precision, many reasonable estimates of the infection fatality rate (IFR) of SARS-CoV-2 are around 0.5%. In the real world, it doesn't quite work this way because when hospitals are overwhelmed and ICU beds are exhausted, mortality does go up significantly.

But if you do the math and all 330M Americans get infected over time, then you're looking at an estimated 1.65M total deaths based on the virulence of Covid-19. This is a scenario where you don't have vaccines or any hard lockdowns (the reality is the U.S. never ever had a hard lockdown). Even if you think SARS-CoV-2 and variants will continue to percolate for years, I don't see any plausible scenario where you go from 440k dead (today) to 2M.

In general though, I'd agree with your thesis that the pandemic has been worse than a lot of people imagined or predicted. Do we recall last spring when U. Washington's IHME modeled something like 61k U.S. Covid-19 deaths by August; and POTUS bragged at how effective the federal response was? Unfortunately that model was based on strict mitigations and it didn't age well once many states "opened up" before summer.

Key coronavirus model revised downward, predicts 60K deaths in US by August

A key forecasting model used by the White House has revised its prediction of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S., now estimating a peak of 60,415 by early August. The model created by the Institute f…

thehill.com

I'm actually kind of worried about next month. Much of western Europe is experiencing a third wave after the UK B117 variant started spreading. U.S. infections are down significantly since the holidays surge, and despite a slow vaccinations roll-out, I think nationally most people are assuming the end is near. We're sitting on a razor's edge whether either vaccinations rapidly immunize us, or a third wave hits first.

 

[dullard]

Although it's very difficult to say with any precision, many reasonable estimates of the FIRST infection fatality rate (IFR) of SARS-CoV-2 are around 0.5%.

Edited for realism. We have no idea yet if this will be a one and done thing or if it will stick around forever. If it sticks around forever, we have no idea if our immune system will be able to stop it and continue to be able to stop it. Some initial signs have been a worse disease for the unfortunate few that have caught the disease twice. Is that a fluke? Or will that be the trend that the disease gets worse each time we catch it? What about our third, 4th, 5th time getting it?

Just think about the number of times you've likely had a different coronavirus: the common cold. Were you immune forever after your first time?

I'm hoping it is one and done. I really hope the vaccines are sufficient and we beat this thing. There are just too many unknowns yet to be confident that it'll just end.

 

[Captante]

Come on, you should know better than this

then you're looking at an estimated 1.65M total deaths based on the virulence of Covid-19

ONLY 1.65 million? SUPER-DELUXE what a deal !!! 😛 😳


Seriously though this is one time I'd be THRILLED to be mistaken! 😕

 

[manly]

Edited for realism. We have no idea yet if this will be a one and done thing or if it will stick around forever. If it sticks around forever, we have no idea if our immune system will be able to stop it and continue to be able to stop it. Some initial signs have been a worse disease for the unfortunate few that have caught the disease twice. Is that a fluke? Or will that be the trend that the disease gets worse each time we catch it? What about our third, 4th, 5th time getting it?

Just think about the number of times you've likely had a different coronavirus: the common cold. Were you immune forever after your first time?

I'm hoping it is one and done. I really hope the vaccines are sufficient and we beat this thing. There are just too many unknowns yet to be confident that it'll just end.

That's a fair point, but if SARS-CoV-2 essentially becomes endemic like seasonal flu (hopefully with annual vaccines), we won't be keeping a running total of the all-time death count. Over roughly a half century time period, seasonal flu kills about 2M Americans. My point was that as bad as the pandemic has been, and as bad as it may yet play out, the virulence of the disease essentially caps the all-time death count. If Covid-19 sticks around forever and kills tens of thousands of Americans annually, we'll just have to deal with it. But if it mutates and infects tens of millions annually, and still kills several hundred thousand annually, then it's a significant health problem.

As for reinfections, up until recently, my understanding was that they were exceptionally rare. However, as Dr. Fauci recently stated in an interview, the South Africans have noticed an increasing number of infections of their new strain with previously infected individuals. And our current vaccines are less effective on the SA strain. So you're right we don't know with any certainty what future outcomes hold, or even how much damage is done to "recovered" folks. I'm not trying to look at the pandemic through rose-colored glasses, or minimize the terrible toll it's already collected.

 

[Muse]

viral load is not a factor in novel viruses.
ugh .. there is no way to simplify this. In theory, a novel virus is a virus that you have NO protection against, none at all. One single individual virus can infect you, because your immune system does not recognize it as an intruder.

I believe you are wrong in that. Do some homework. Viral load with Covid-19 is very much an overriding factor in case outcome.

 

[Muse]

Inhale a tiny amount of virus, and you might actually have just created yourself a live-vaccine. Too tiny to become seriously ill, but strong enough to get some immunity.

Yup, I have been wondering about that. I figure that a ton of people have taken in a tiny viral load, many have done this at various times, and so have been exposed to minimal viral loads over the last year and have some immunity. Not immunity like they'd have if they recovered from a symptomatic case or especially if they'd been vaccinated. That probably even includes me, although I've been super super careful.

Thanks for that great explanation of the viral load effect even for a novel virus.