How many Americans deaths will Trump be directly responsible for due to COVID-45

[kage69]

Seems like a good time to really get behind Vote by Mail. No having people congregate, touch common surfaces during near pandemic levels of risk. No traitors having an excuse to try and delay or cancel elections.

As for the mail itself, hot air sterilization? I presume COVID-19 has a max temp rating that is below the ignition point of paper.

 

[kage69]

Up to 10k is my vote. Trying to stay optimistic

People in cities need to watch out. Glad I'm in the sticks of a low population state now. Despite that I've still been stocking up the larder and freezers anew lately. Staying home for several weeks might get boring, but it'll be doable.

 

[snoopy7548]

My plan is for everyone else to stay home so I can finally go grocery shopping in peace.

I'm betting less than 10,000 deaths, but I don't know much of anything about contagious diseases.

 

[Amused]

2nd case in the wild found in CA with no travel and no known contact with known quarantine patients.

Certainly looks like it's breaking out.


Second coronavirus case of unknown origin confirmed in California, indicating virus is spreading in the state

"A 65-year-old resident of Santa Clara County, Calif., who has no known history of travel to countries hit hard by the outbreak, has tested positive for coronavirus, people familiar with the case said Friday.
There is no known connection between the new patient and anyone else diagnosed with the disease, known as covid-19. On Wednesday, health authorities revealed the nation’s first case of community transmission, a woman in Solano County, about 90 miles away.
That means the virus appears to be spreading among at least two separate populations, according to people who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the information has not been released publicly.

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization raised its risk assessment of the coronavirus to “very high” Friday, citing risk of spread and impact. WHO officials said their assessment — the highest level short of declaring a global pandemic — doesn’t change the approach countries should take to combat the virus but should serve as a “wake up” and “reality check” for countries to hurry their preparations."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/02/28/coronavirus-live-updates/?fbclid=IwAR2ybdNvUGeJ82Ei1GKjeo4BJkhQzlFjwEGzL1HysQfF7c1boHeWd5hP56w&utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

 

[imported_tajmahal]

The same number as if Obutthole, Bush or Clinton was the President.

 

[cytg111]

The same number as if Obutthole, Bush or Clinton was the President.

Ssssssssssshhhhh

 

[TheVrolok]

Meh, I'll go with what the experts are saying about the death rate.

New data from China buttress fears about high coronavirus fatality rate, WHO expert says

A WHO expert who visited China said he did not see evidence that a large number of mild #coronavirus cases are evading detection, meaning its lethality has likely not been exaggerated.

www.statnews.com

"One of the hopes of people watching China’s coronavirus outbreak was that the alarming picture of its lethality is probably exaggerated because a lot of mild cases are likely being missed.

But on Tuesday, a World Health Organization expert suggested that does not appear to be the case. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and China’s response, said the specialists did not see evidence that a large number of mild cases of the novel disease called Covid-19 are evading detection."

WHO and CDC are putting the death rate at around 2% AND saying containment is increasingly unlikely.

When in doubt, believe the experts.

I'm quoting an article in JAMA which is reporting data from the Chinese CDC. You may want to look at your sources a little closer. My experience is that news articles about actual scientific literature are not a substitute for the source material.

That's probably a little more expert (data driven) than whatever quotation a writer chooses to use.

The number of folks who are generally very rational and data driven who have let emotion and sound bite take over is unfortunate.

 

[Amused]

I'm quoting an article in JAMA which is reporting data from the Chinese CDC. You may want to look at your sources a little closer. My experience is that news articles about actual scientific literature are not a substitute for the source material.

Yes, but you cherry picked info to fit what you wanted to say. (two data points) This scientist acknowledges that info, but counters with more data that explains much of the discrepancy AND explains why the death rate outside of China more matches the death rate inside Hubei.

 

[UberNeuman]

The same number as if Obutthole, Bush or Clinton was the President.

With any luck, you are part of the number.

You may not express yourself in this manner here.

Perknose
Forum Director

 

[brycejones]

The same number as if Obutthole, Bush or Clinton was the President.

Show us on the doll where the evil black man touched you.

 

[Starbuck1975]

Commentary is implied

They’re just trying to sell disinfectants and soap

 

[Muse]

Trump routinely dismisses the threat.

Trump appoints an idiot that does not even believe in science to spearhead the response to the threat!

Trump believes that it is a plot by democrats to discredit him before the elections and cause him to lose the election.

Trump attacks/threatens/fires people knowledgeable in the field of communicable diseases because they dare to criticize his actions or response.

Trump said that schools and other institutions do not need to plan to deal with a possible outbreak.

Trump said "It's going to disappear. One day it's like a miracle, it will disappear,"

Trump said that spring time and warm weather would take care of it.

The man is thoroughly delusional. He's obviously never studied a single science, has no idea what the scientific method is. He's on the other side of the fence.

 

[TheVrolok]

Yes, but you cherry picked info to fit what you wanted to say. (two data points) This scientist acknowledges that info, but counters with more data that explains much of the discrepancy AND explains why the death rate outside of China more matches the death rate inside Hubei.

I didn't cherry pick anything, I was simply quoting the article. Of course he goes on to explain (I'm assuming you mean the reference to the Swiss article). That's the point, all of these numbers are estimations with many variables. I am arguing from the point of the epidemiologists and statisticians, read the data, and speculate, that's fine, but call it what it is, qualify it as necessary, and don't be sensational.

Edit: going to link the articles because they're good reads

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China—Summary of a China CDC Report

This Viewpoint summarizes key epidemiologic and clinical findings from all cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reported through February 11, 2020, in mainland China, and case trends in response to government attempts to control and contain the infection.

jamanetwork.com

2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution | Swiss Medical Weekly

smw.ch

 

[Muse]

WHO and CDC are putting the death rate at around 2% AND saying containment is increasingly unlikely.

When in doubt, believe the experts.

If that is true, we're in for a very difficult year.

 

[Muse]

Seems like a good time to really get behind Vote by Mail. No having people congregate, touch common surfaces during near pandemic levels of risk. No traitors having an excuse to try and delay or cancel elections.

As for the mail itself, hot air sterilization? I presume COVID-19 has a max temp rating that is below the ignition point of paper.

I have my first ever vote by mail envelope sitting at home (I'll get home Sunday). I was thinking of hand delivering it to the polls, but think I'll drop it in the mail instead. I applied one day to late, according to the website, but the envelope came anyway. I just wasn't officially on time yet. Still haven't made my mind yet who to vote for demo POTUS candidate.

 

[Muse]

TBH, I'd have been surprised if this development hadn't occurred at about this point. Within 2 weeks I think we'll know of 20+ cases community transmission in CA and we'll have at least a few in other states.

And the WHO not already declaring a global pandemic is just WTF!

 

[allisolm]

If there are deaths, none of them will be due to Trump's incompetence/indiference because Trump will say they weren't his fault, lay all of the blame on others, and his base will believe his every word.

 

[sandorski]

n

 

[sportage]

Betting on or guessing of numbers is not the worry.
What should be the worry are those new cases of infected people that HAVE NO connection with infected people or connection with infected nations.

TWO THINGS we all do as people.
TWO THINGS.....

One, we all travel either locally or nationally or internationally. And, all of our friends and acquaintances do too.

Second, we all receive "stuff" in the mail. Letters, Amazon packages, viagra, and if this virus is spreading via "stuff" then we're all doomed.

 

[Greenman]

I don't know how many, but it will be less than the flu.

 

[JEDIYoda]

The same number as if Obutthole, Bush or Clinton was the President.

yeah right!! The issue is that Trump has no pandemic response Team in place...unless you call the Pence buffoon a viable counter......
nice try at deflection!

 

[senseamp]

Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Age, sex, demographic characteristics such as pre-existing conditions, of coronavirus cases of patients infected with COVID-19 and deaths, as observed in studies on the virus outbreak originating from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

AGE​	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old ​	21.9%​	14.8%​
70-79 years old ​	​	8.0%​
60-69 years old ​	​	3.6%​
50-59 years old ​	​	1.3%​
40-49 years old ​	​	0.4%​
30-39 years old ​	​	0.2%​
20-29 years old ​	​	0.2%​
10-19 years old ​	​	0.2%​

AGE in 2016	% OF VOTE	CLINTON	TRUMP
18-29	19	55	36
30-44	25	51	41
45-64	40	44	52
65 & over	16	45	52

Elections have consequences.

 

[JEDIYoda]

Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Age, sex, demographic characteristics such as pre-existing conditions, of coronavirus cases of patients infected with COVID-19 and deaths, as observed in studies on the virus outbreak originating from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

AGE​	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old ​	21.9%​	14.8%​
70-79 years old ​	​	8.0%​
60-69 years old ​	​	3.6%​
50-59 years old ​	​	1.3%​
40-49 years old ​	​	0.4%​
30-39 years old ​	​	0.2%​
20-29 years old ​	​	0.2%​
10-19 years old ​	​	0.2%​

AGE in 2016	% OF VOTE	CLINTON	TRUMP
18-29	19	55	36
30-44	25	51	41
45-64	40	44	52
65 & over	16	45	52

Elections have consequences.

finally someone making sense..........

 

[dawp]

42

 

[TheVrolok]

I don't know how many, but it will be less than the flu.

That's probably not the case, unfortunately.