how long till SSDs $1 per GB?

[tuomas]

I want an SSD when I can get a 250GB drive for less than $300. That would be a size I could live with for dual booting and having all the apps I need on my notebook. WOuldn't be able to do any smaller than that. But I want the speed so bad.

What do you guys think? Any chance that'll happen within the next 1.5-2 years?

 

[queequeg99]

I'd be pretty psyched to get a decent drive for under $2 a gig (i.e. something with an Intel or Indilinx controller).

Truth is, additional NAND fabrication capacity is needed. While prices were falling a year ago, they started going up late last year, continuing through the first part of this year. When Apple placed a large NAND order earlier this year for a new iPhone model, that single order had a substantial impact on the entire NAND market. Before prices start to really plummet, that sort of situation must end.

I wouldn't be surprised if prices rise over the next few quarters. Eventually, however, plant resources will be reallocated or new plants will be built and prices will drop.

 

[slayer202]

within 2 years, I would say most likely. thats a long time. the new kingston is about $2/gig with rebate

 

[baddog60]

It is interesting to see the price of drives fluctuate in even a relatively short period of time. I bought a 60gig Agility drive shortly after the Intel G2 came out and only paid $130 for it after rebate. Then the demand and availability for the Intel caused the prices on that drive to go crazy. I think all of the SSD manufacturers were able to take advantage and raise their prices in the short term.

I would not be surprised to see the prices come down after the first of the year to a near $2 per gig range; however, long term I see it hard to get down to the $1 per gig range. Once the capacity allows the drives to drop to the $1.50 range you will see another spike in demand. Right now SSDs are an enthusiast purchase as their price declines they will become more mainstream and thus create more demand.

 

[taltamir]

may 12th, 2:31pm 2011.

 

[TemjinGold]

may 12th, 2:31pm 2011.

Nono, it's December 21, 2012...

 

[fffblackmage]

Moore's law? That would mean waiting for another couple of years. Guess I'm not getting an SSD until then....

 

[Idontcare]

Gonna take a while, the industry has this to work through first, and currently industry analysts are expecting that cycle to take 3-4 years before we get back to the kind of supply/demand over-hang that precipitated the unusually low NAND prices we all got to enjoy last year.

For flash memory devices, unit shipments and bit volume demand continue to increase. At the same time, however, there has been a severe reduction in flash memory capital spending. Combined, these two factors will put upward pressure on average selling prices through 2012.

With unit demand increasing and a minimal amount of new facilities and upgrades planned, conditions are setting up for average selling prices to move higher through the balance of 2009 and into 2010. In fact, the rise in ASPs could last well into 2012 since it will take some time before new capacity expansions are brought online. This trend, though a potential burden to OEMs, could be a significant blessing for flash suppliers who have seen only steep price declines for their products over the past several years.

And dramexchange recently published info on NAND pricing for the past year:

http://www.dramexchange.com/WeeklyResearch/Post/2/2200.html

Cliffs: NAND flash is not expected to get cheaper in the near-term.

 

[fffblackmage]

Gonna take a while, the industry has this to work through first, and currently industry analysts are expecting that cycle to take 3-4 years before we get back to the kind of supply/demand over-hang that precipitated the unusually low NAND prices we all got to enjoy last year.

Let me correct myself. Looks like I'll never be getting my SSD.

 

[pjkenned]

Just as a FYI, when Dell has good sales you can get the Dell rebrand of the Samsung 256GB SSD for just under $400. While not $1/GB, it isn't too bad.

 

[Damn Dirty Ape]

Was lucky enough on another forum to grab a brand new patriot torqx 256 for $400 shipped. This is the one with the newer controller and that corsair also rebrands as theirs. 10 year warranty. Would be hard to go back.

 

[Zap]

may 12th, 2:31pm 2011.

Nono, it's December 21, 2012...

Shall we create a poll and take bets?

I would win, because you are BOTH wrong.

The exact time that SSD prices break the magical $1/GB is 10/22/2010 at 0400 hours GMT when Newegg puts up their Friday afternoon ShellShocker special.

:awe:

Unfortunately it will be an older model with a Jmicron controller, thus not worth buying.

D:

 

[Idontcare]

Capacity Tightens as Shortage Fears Rise

SEMI updated its World Fab Forecast, showing that installed fab capacity next year will be little changed from late 2008 as widespread closures of older capacity continues. With relatively little new capacity coming online, some executives and analysts are voicing fears of widespread chip shortages next year if the world economy snaps back. Bill McClean, president of IC Insights Inc. (Scottsdale, Ariz.), said computer companies he works with are worried about DRAM shortages.

[URL="http://www.semiconductor.net/article/390020-Capacity_Tightens_as_Shortage_Fears_Rise.php"]http://www.semiconductor.net/article/390020-Capacity_Tightens_as_Shortage_Fears_Rise.php[/URL]

oh dear, that's not good

 

[SonnyDaze]

Zager and Evans said it best...."In the year 2525, if man is still alive..."