How Long Can The Republican Party Do Without Young People?

[poofyhairguy]

It seems as long as Republican candidates have to deal with litmus tests on social issues like gay marriage to keep the older evangelist voters happy that young voters will shun the party.

How long can they do without this demographic? I suspect a while as the baby Boomer generation is so large.

Will a lack of youth interest today spell long-term issues for the Republicans, or will young conservatives jump on board when the social platform is eventually dropped?

 

[Phokus]

Or with people of color

 

[poofyhairguy]

Or with people of color

Great point, Republicans have never been about a big tent. That is why I don't expect change in the medium-term.

It is just that the youth of their current base (so not minorities) don't want to touch the R label in fear of being called a biggot. How long can they lock out their future base?

 

[cubby1223]

Young people eventually get older and get tired of seeing the new crop of young people believing they already have all the answers to life.

 

[fskimospy]

Young people eventually get older and get tired of seeing the new crop of young people believing they already have all the answers to life.

Not really true. Back in the 1980's and early 90's young self identified Republicans ran even with young Democrats or even exceeded them.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/independents/data-year-by-year.html

Now if you look at modern party ID depending on the source the Democrats are winning young people by anywhere from 11 to almost 20 points. That's bananas.

 

[compuwiz1]

Assuming there are no young republicans is a mistake. Assuming all republicans are white is also a mistake. I know many young and non white people who are republicans.

 

[Retro Rob]

Young people eventually get older and get tired of seeing the new crop of young people believing they already have all the answers to life.

This is what I was thinking.

 

[fskimospy]

This is what I was thinking.

So what do you guys have to say about the major party ID gap that has opened between the Democrats and Republicans over the last 20 years, going from a Republican advantage to a large Democratic one? Since party ID tends to be relatively stable in individuals over time, that sounds like trouble.

 

[poofyhairguy]

Assuming there are no young republicans is a mistake. Assuming all republicans are white is also a mistake. I know many young and non white people who are republicans.

Of course, people of all walks of life are Republicans. But you can clearly see in voter patterns and message creation which groups each party counts on to get elected.

I get why it is what it is, I am asking when/if there will be a tipping point on the demographic that best represents the future.

 

[cubby1223]

Not really true. Back in the 1980's and early 90's young self identified Republicans ran even with young Democrats or even exceeded them.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/independents/data-year-by-year.html

Now if you look at modern party ID depending on the source the Democrats are winning young people by anywhere from 11 to almost 20 points. That's bananas.

I thought it was obvious I wasn't making a scientific analysis this go-around 😉

This country has leaned more Democrat ever since the days of FDR, the 80's & 90's were fluke decades.

 

[SparkyJJO]

So the democrats attract the young and stupid.

Answers a lot of questions.

I'm a young guy and I'm appalled at how retarded, lazy, and downright disgusting my generation can be. And it is another reason we are where we are, and why we keep going down the danger road. A generation of idiots.

 

[Matt1970]

So what do you guys have to say about the major party ID gap that has opened between the Democrats and Republicans over the last 20 years, going from a Republican advantage to a large Democratic one? Since party ID tends to be relatively stable in individuals over time, that sounds like trouble.

But you know how quickly things can change. There is massive government spying going on by the current administration, the implementation of the already unpopular ACA being a huge disaster, millions tossed off their current insurance that will now have to dig into their own pocketbooks to buy new insurance, not to mention the people who were barely getting by as it was forced to shell out big bucks due to the mandate. If you think none of that will play a big role in the elections just over a year away, I want some of what you are smoking.

 

[fskimospy]

But you know how quickly things can change. There is massive government spying going on by the current administration, the implementation of the already unpopular ACA being a huge disaster, millions tossed off their current insurance that will now have to dig into their own pocketbooks to buy new insurance, not to mention the people who were barely getting by as it was forced to shell out big bucks due to the mandate. If you think none of that will play a big role in the elections just over a year away, I want some of what you are smoking.

This post is almost entirely wishful partisan thinking that's backed up by no evidence. Your argument appears to be that a twenty year trend away from the GOP will reverse itself because Obama carried on with a GOP initiated spying plan and enacted a GOP inspired health care bill. If you think that's the case, I want some of what you are smoking.

Basically you seem to think that none of this matters and that things will magically fix themselves for the GOP. I guess that's one way to look at things.

 

[fskimospy]

So the democrats attract the young and stupid.

Answers a lot of questions.

I'm a young guy and I'm appalled at how retarded, lazy, and downright disgusting my generation can be. And it is another reason we are where we are, and why we keep going down the danger road. A generation of idiots.

And so I guess your argument is that the Republicans starting with Ronald Reagan attracted the young and stupid? This seems like strange position to hold as he's basically the most venerated individual in the modern party.

 

[poofyhairguy]

But you know how quickly things can change. There is massive government spying going on by the current administration, the implementation of the already unpopular ACA being a huge disaster, millions tossed off their current insurance that will now have to dig into their own pocketbooks to buy new insurance, not to mention the people who were barely getting by as it was forced to shell out big bucks due to the mandate. If you think none of that will play a big role in the elections just over a year away, I want some of what you are smoking.

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying Republican economic and tax policies aren't appealing to young people. They are.

But future potential Republicans are avoiding the party due to a message that is incompatible with youth values. Young Republican leaders won't touch social issues:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/poli...orget-social-issues-it-s-the-economy-20130821

Youth go to church much less than previous generations and care less about social issues. So the Republican social platform is eventually dead as evangelicals go from moral majority to loud minority.

My question is when will the party message shift to economic issues and when will the party not demand candidates tow the line on social issues?

 

[Matt1970]

This post is almost entirely wishful partisan thinking that's backed up by no evidence. Your argument appears to be that a twenty year trend away from the GOP will reverse itself because Obama carried on with a GOP initiated spying plan and enacted a GOP inspired health care bill. If you think that's the case, I want some of what you are smoking.

Basically you seem to think that none of this matters and that things will magically fix themselves for the GOP. I guess that's one way to look at things.

So there isn't massive government spying, the implementation of the already unpopular ACA isn't a huge disaster and millions aren't tossed off their current insurance? You are giving sticking your head in the sand a whole new meaning.

 

[Fern]

Not really true. Back in the 1980's and early 90's young self identified Republicans ran even with young Democrats or even exceeded them.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/independents/data-year-by-year.html

Now if you look at modern party ID depending on the source the Democrats are winning young people by anywhere from 11 to almost 20 points. That's bananas.

I'm thinking your argument is more that young people's party affiliation swings back and forth. Seems to me during the Vietnam era many were with the Dem party, then later switched if your assertion is accurate. So, now they've swung back to the Dem party. No one really knows if it will stay that way or they'll swing back again.

Fern

 

[fskimospy]

So there isn't massive government spying, the implementation of the already unpopular ACA isn't a huge disaster and millions aren't tossed off their current insurance? You are giving sticking your head in the sand a whole new meaning.

No, I'm saying that young people who lean Democratic aren't going to vote for the GOP if they don't like Obama's policies that closely resemble GOP policies. The idea that you thought they would is why I wanted to know what you were smoking.

 

[Anarchist420]

My question is when will the party message shift to economic issues and when will the party not demand candidates tow the line on social issues?

why should they shift to economic issues when theyre the same as the Democrats?

 

[fskimospy]

I'm thinking your argument is more that young people's party affiliation swings back and forth. Seems to me during the Vietnam era many were with the Dem party, then later switched if your assertion is accurate. So, now they've swung back to the Dem party. No one really knows if it will stay that way or they'll swing back again.

Fern

No, it's really not. The 80's was generally an aberration when it comes to youth party ID but it paid the GOP long term dividends that they still see today. When that youth movement from the 80's ages and dies that's going to be a problem.

 

[Matt1970]

No, it's really not. The 80's was generally an aberration when it comes to youth party ID but it paid the GOP long term dividends that they still see today. When that youth movement from the 80's ages and dies that's going to be a problem.

I was the youth in the 80's. I am only 43 (note the username) so we will be here for a while.

 

[Retro Rob]

So what do you guys have to say about the major party ID gap that has opened between the Democrats and Republicans over the last 20 years, going from a Republican advantage to a large Democratic one? Since party ID tends to be relatively stable in individuals over time, that sounds like trouble.

I personally don't get into the statistics a whole lot because I don't care that much, honestly, but I was really under the opinion that there is a perception out here that one of the reasons young people are not likely to ID as "R" is because of the ignorance of the party.

Basically, young people seem to have an arrogance that they know more because of things like the "Internet" and "technology" which is chock-full of good information as is of bad, misleading, and flat-out biased information.

 

[poofyhairguy]

I'm thinking your argument is more that young people's party affiliation swings back and forth. Seems to me during the Vietnam era many were with the Dem party, then later switched if your assertion is accurate. So, now they've swung back to the Dem party. No one really knows if it will stay that way or they'll swing back again.

Fern

It is not just random swinging. It is about the message.

Reagan talked about the economy and had a practical value system that appealed to young voters of the day.

It is clear social conservatism is a losing message with those under 35. When does the next Reagan get past the primaries with a more practical message?

 

[cubby1223]

No, it's really not. The 80's was generally an aberration when it comes to youth party ID but it paid the GOP long term dividends that they still see today. When that youth movement from the 80's ages and dies that's going to be a problem.

The Dems of today will find new ways to alienate people - they've just been very good lately at rebranding their faults into Republican faults, it's not going to last forever.

Young people love the ideas of the Democrats, hell even I love many goals of the Democrats, but years go by and they eventually grow tired hearing of new visions that never become reality.

 

[poofyhairguy]

The Dems of today will find new ways to alienate people - they've just been very good lately at rebranding their faults into Republican faults, it's not going to last forever.

Young people love the ideas of the Democrats, hell even I love many goals of the Democrats, but years go by and they eventually grow tired hearing of new visions that never become reality.

I think that is fair that the young Democrats today can maybe one day vote Republican. But the party needs more than hold their nose independent voters to survive.

Eventually the party will need today's youth to want to take on the brand for it to continue, and they simply won't as long as the brand is tied to perceived bigotry.

The numbers show it, gay marriage maybe got W re-elected but it is toxic for youth participation:

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/20...cking-gay-rights-69-is-republican-hurdle.html