How Long Before The Sleeping Sheeple Finally Wake Up?

[Screech]

Not sure if serious... and that's sad and pathetic... but whatever floats your boat.

The facts posted by Screech were not even current. You have already been corrected in the previous posts I made.

yes, that 1.2% uptick really is the end of the world.

let's see:

2005 469
2006 479.3
2007 471.8
2008 458.6
2009 431.9
2010 404.5
2011 386.3

469-->386: ~18% reduction in crime between 2005 and 2011
2011-->2012: 1.2% increase.....which still leaves us at a level substantially lower than that of past decades.

Somehow, I'm not seeing an end of the world scenario here. Maybe I need to drop acid or something. Unless you are trying to outdo A420 for 'most incoherent and absurd set of logical fallacies' in which case, merrily carry on my good friend!

 

[SlickSnake]

yes, that 1.2% uptick really is the end of the world.

let's see:

2005 469
2006 479.3
2007 471.8
2008 458.6
2009 431.9
2010 404.5
2011 386.3

469-->386: ~18% reduction in crime between 2005 and 2011
2011-->2012: 1.2% increase.....which still leaves us at a level substantially lower than that of past decades.

Somehow, I'm not seeing an end of the world scenario here. Maybe I need to drop acid or something. Unless you are trying to outdo A420 for 'most incoherent and absurd set of logical fallacies' in which case, merrily carry on my good friend!

WOW, you sure schooled me!

And this rise in spite of the reports that some large cities are deliberately under reporting violent crime stats because they don't want to look bad compared to other similar sized cities and drive off potential businesses and hurt their real estate sectors even more. There is nothing compelling them to turn in accurate crime stats, and nothing will happen to them if they do, and for the most part, nobody is fact checking them for accuracy.

And this just in... 2013 is not in yet.

 

[Screech]

WOW, you sure schooled me!

And this rise in spite of the reports that some large cities are deliberately under reporting violent crime stats because they don't want to look bad compared to other similar sized cities and drive off potential businesses and hurt their real estate sectors even more. There is nothing compelling them to turn in accurate crime stats, and nothing will happen to them if they do, and for the most part, nobody is fact checking them for accuracy.

And this just in... 2013 is not in yet.

So in the past when the same cities were reporting the same crime, they never considered lying because 20 years ago they were all 100% honest, but now they are all liars and so obviously crime is going up everywhere, but it is impossible to tell that from the stats?

Is that.....really your argument?

Sure, 2013 might be more violent. Might not be. We shall see. I would bet it won't be close on a normalized crimes rate (crimes per 100,000 etc) to crime in the past (1970s, 80s).

 

[Capt Caveman]

WOW, you sure schooled me!

And this rise in spite of the reports that some large cities are deliberately under reporting violent crime stats because they don't want to look bad compared to other similar sized cities and drive off potential businesses and hurt their real estate sectors even more. There is nothing compelling them to turn in accurate crime stats, and nothing will happen to them if they do, and for the most part, nobody is fact checking them for accuracy.

And this just in... 2013 is not in yet.

Living in the city, I don't believe we've had a single murder this year. Though, I've never feared for my life or safety and I don't even own a gun. Oh noes!

 

[Doppel]

Statistics? Are you a statistician? Are you refering to something statistically specific or just speculating?

Compared to many I am a statistician, yes. Of course, a key point of statistics is to use prior data to speculate on future likelihoods.

Natural disasters causing a breakdown in the US are more or less laughable and next to impossible. There's nothing that could do it within my life time to any degree worth ever worrying about.

Government could change, but it isn't likely to be terribly violent. Perhaps mass protests causing a restart. A huge armed confrontation with government isn't plausible in any environment approximating ours. A nuclear war is the most likely thing to kill off this country in the next few decades.

People have been calling for the end of time since the start of it. One day they will be right but to date they've always been wrong.

 

[Doppel]

Regarding violent crime it is, of course, down. We know this and must not pretend otherwise unless we have a thorough source contradicting the many statistics showing it down decade over decade.

It will continue to fall. I am positive that the increasing surveillance society will make violent crime more difficult, particularly because it will make catching people vastly easier, and thus they will not be able to repeat their offense and/or will know that there's virtually no chance of getting away with it.

 

[fskimospy]

Regarding violent crime it is, of course, down. We know this and must not pretend otherwise unless we have a thorough source contradicting the many statistics showing it down decade over decade.

It will continue to fall. I am positive that the increasing surveillance society will make violent crime more difficult, particularly because it will make catching people vastly easier, and thus they will not be able to repeat their offense and/or will know that there's virtually no chance of getting away with it.

This is something you don't even need to be a statistician to understand, just using your eyes will tell you and New York is a great example. In the 1970's and 80's the city had a huge crime problem and more affluent people had fled the city in response. Now? The exact opposite. Bedford-Stuyvesant, a neighborhood so notorious that I remember as a kid reading books by police officers describing how they survived it. Prospect Heights? Super ghetto. Today Bed-Stuy is filled with yuppies and hipsters and Prospect Heights just opened an artisinal mayonnaise shop. A fucking artisinal mayo shop.

These new developments make me question the future of humanity, but not because of crime.

 

[dank69]

Or, How long before the "Shit Finally Hits the Fan?"

I think you know what I mean based on the sudden rise of the many current violent crime news reports that are being deliberately under reported and mischaracterized and misconstrued by the M.S.M. when they do report on them.

Interesting too, the sudden rise in the number of violent juveniles doing many of the vicious, cold blooded and cowardly attacks, too.

Feel free to elaborate further your opinions beyond just answering the poll dates.

(update)
By the way, "When The Shit Hits The Fan" can be describing here ANY complete breakdown in society, not just a violent crime wave. It could mean a solar flare wiping out the electrical grid, it could be a giant asteroid hitting the Earth and causing a giant calamity and nearly wiping out humanity, it could be a super volcano erupting and completely covering a continent in ash, or even a global famine if crops failed due to some weather catastrophe, or it could be as simple as an economic meltdown triggering another great depression, a political uprising, infectious diseases or even a war of some sort. Those are just a few examples.

That's why I wanted to know your comments after voting in the poll. I have a few ideas myself, and think it's going to be several things happening in quick succession. But I don't want to overly influence the answers at this point. Later on after more participation I will give you my opinions here.

Thanks again for participating!

People have been crying that the "apocalypse" is just around the corner for thousands of years. You are going to die an old man lying in your bed. How much of your life are you going to waste worrying about shit like this? Do you know what we call men who worry too much? Women.

 

[Pr0d1gy]

People have been crying that the "apocalypse" is just around the corner for thousands of years. You are going to die an old man lying in your bed. How much of your life are you going to waste worrying about shit like this? Do you know what we call men who worry too much? Women.

But...b...b....b....but...Comet Ison! lol

 

[Mursilis]

People have been crying that the "apocalypse" is just around the corner for thousands of years. You are going to die an old man lying in your bed. How much of your life are you going to waste worrying about shit like this? Do you know what we call men who worry too much? Women.

Mostly, you're right. The last time period in the U.S. of true nationwide violence and upheaval was the U.S. Civil War, which was 150 years ago now. Americans have been fortunate to be spared a lot of the violent shifts experienced by the rest of the world in the 20th Century. Neither WWI or WWII were fought on our shores, and though we've had periods of significant social shifts (the Great Depression, the Sixties), they've largely been bloodless. We've enjoyed a good long period of relative stability, and I don't see that changing any time soon.

Of course, history is full of surprises, too.

 

[ivwshane]

Oh there will be an uprising alright, it will be comprised of the right wing loonies like the OP. fortunately they will be struck down rather quickly and will be followed by decades of prosperity and tranquility, as the nutter will have retreated to holes from which they came.

 

[SlickSnake]

Regarding violent crime it is, of course, down. We know this and must not pretend otherwise unless we have a thorough source contradicting the many statistics showing it down decade over decade.

It will continue to fall. I am positive that the increasing surveillance society will make violent crime more difficult, particularly because it will make catching people vastly easier, and thus they will not be able to repeat their offense and/or will know that there's virtually no chance of getting away with it.

But it is not down. It has gone up nationwide an average of 1.2% from 2011 to 2012 according to the FEDs. In a few smaller cities demographics it has gone down, but in larger cities demographics murder and nonnegligent manslaughter has gone up as much as 12%. I posted a link with stats, so why would a statistically inclined person then ignore the violent crime stats and post otherwise?

And increased surveillance is a passive system that might only catch the perps after the fact, not while the crime is actually occurring. And as a viable deterrent in crimes such as gas station and convenience store robberies, the perps just cover their heads and faces with hoods and dark glasses or a mask and there is almost no way to identify them, so deterrence is then not a factor at all. The clerks and customers still get robbed, shot and killed.

 

[SlickSnake]

This is something you don't even need to be a statistician to understand, just using your eyes will tell you and New York is a great example. In the 1970's and 80's the city had a huge crime problem and more affluent people had fled the city in response. Now? The exact opposite. Bedford-Stuyvesant, a neighborhood so notorious that I remember as a kid reading books by police officers describing how they survived it. Prospect Heights? Super ghetto. Today Bed-Stuy is filled with yuppies and hipsters and Prospect Heights just opened an artisinal mayonnaise shop. A fucking artisinal mayo shop.

These new developments make me question the future of humanity, but not because of crime.

So, lower violent crime in some NY neighborhoods because of artisinal mayonnaise shops. Got it.

 

[SlickSnake]

People have been crying that the "apocalypse" is just around the corner for thousands of years. You are going to die an old man lying in your bed. How much of your life are you going to waste worrying about shit like this? Do you know what we call men who worry too much? Women.

So if the FEDs worry about the "apocalypse" and "shit like this" and stockpile survival supplies, that means Uncle Sam is really a WOMAN? Like someone who stockpiles canned food, Like AUNT BEA?!?

 

[SlickSnake]

Of course, the future is full of surprises, too.

FIFY!

 

[SlickSnake]

Oh there will be an uprising alright, it will be comprised of the right wing loonies like the OP. fortunately they will be struck down rather quickly and will be followed by decades of prosperity and tranquility, as the nutter will have retreated to wholes from which they came.

The loonies are the ones who try to type cast every person with a right or left wing moniker, and it's mostly done because of the way our 2 party system panders to this imaginary division because of votes. When the truth of the matter is that voters are usually somewhere in the grey area in between.


And so far, 25 voters think the "shit will never hit the fan" "the levee will never break" and "the sleeping sheeple will never wake up". And looking at history as a guide, I think the odds are against you, because our society will collapse or have an upheaval at some point, perhaps not in our lifetimes, but it's going to happen for one reason or another, and that is guaranteed.

 

[brycejones]

So, lower violent crime in some NY neighborhoods because of artisinal mayonnaise shops. Got it.

Are you being deliberately obtuse?

 

[SlickSnake]

Sorry but those are lies from the man intended to fool the sheepel into believing things are getting better. It's sad and pathetic but any facts posted will just be discounted if they don't support the OP's view that some armed conflict is coming.

Are you being deliberately obtuse?

Are you? Right back at ya.

 

[woolfe9998]

The loonies are the ones who try to type cast every person with a right or left wing moniker, and it's mostly done because of the way our 2 party system panders to this imaginary division because of votes. When the truth of the matter is that voters are usually somewhere in the grey area in between.


And so far, 25 voters think the "shit will never hit the fan" "the levee will never break" and "the sleeping sheeple will never wake up". And looking at history as a guide, I think the odds are against you, because our society will collapse or have an upheaval at some point, perhaps not in our lifetimes, but it's going to happen for one reason or another, and that is guaranteed.

If what you're trying to say is that in the long sweep of history, every country experiences massive upheaval and/or eventually collapses, then you're shifting the goal posts to something probably not all that refutable but also entirely meaningless. Your poll specifies time frames of no more than 5 years while it's chock full of options for imminent catastrophe. The fact that the US may hypothetically collapse in 2078 or 2314 is so meaningless it is hardly even worth pondering. It is also likely that all humanity will eventually become extinct, in 200 or 20,000 years. Who knows. Yes, entropy operates in every system - that is a philosophical proposition. But you're talking about something far more imminent and concrete than that. And on that score, yeah, you're way off base.

I see no reason to distinguish you from any of the legion of harbingers of doom who have come and gone. You guys will keep predicting the apocalypse, whether it is of a religious, economic, natural and/or political kind. Some day one of you may turn out to be right, but I guaranty that when it happens it will be entirely coincidental because the inclination for these predictions quite clearly isn't very rational, as has been shown time and time and time and time again.

 

[OverVolt]

Mostly, you're right. The last time period in the U.S. of true nationwide violence and upheaval was the U.S. Civil War, which was 150 years ago now. Americans have been fortunate to be spared a lot of the violent shifts experienced by the rest of the world in the 20th Century. Neither WWI or WWII were fought on our shores, and though we've had periods of significant social shifts (the Great Depression, the Sixties), they've largely been bloodless. We've enjoyed a good long period of relative stability, and I don't see that changing any time soon.

Of course, history is full of surprises, too.

It was probably the race riots actually.

 

[hal2kilo]

I love troll polls.

 

[fskimospy]

So, lower violent crime in some NY neighborhoods because of artisinal mayonnaise shops. Got it.

No, I'm saying that the crime rate has precipitously declined, leaving stupid mayo shops in what were once crime-ridden, blighted areas.

I don't think you have a very good grasp on what the real world looks like currently.

 

[dank69]

So if the FEDs worry about the "apocalypse" and "shit like this" and stockpile survival supplies, that means Uncle Sam is really a WOMAN? Like someone who stockpiles canned food, Like AUNT BEA?!?

No. You are a woman. Uncle Sam is made up of a lot of people, many of which are also people with fear centers bigger than their penises just like you.

 

[Orignal Earl]

This is another example of Availability heuristic

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic

 

[SlickSnake]

If what you're trying to say is that in the long sweep of history, every country experiences massive upheaval and/or eventually collapses, then you're shifting the goal posts to something probably not all that refutable but also entirely meaningless. Your poll specifies time frames of no more than 5 years while it's chock full of options for imminent catastrophe. The fact that the US may hypothetically collapse in 2078 or 2314 is so meaningless it is hardly even worth pondering. It is also likely that all humanity will eventually become extinct, in 200 or 20,000 years. Who knows. Yes, entropy operates in every system - that is a philosophical proposition. But you're talking about something far more imminent and concrete than that. And on that score, yeah, you're way off base.

I see no reason to distinguish you from any of the legion of harbingers of doom who have come and gone. You guys will keep predicting the apocalypse, whether it is of a religious, economic, natural and/or political kind. Some day one of you may turn out to be right, but I guaranty that when it happens it will be entirely coincidental because the inclination for these predictions quite clearly isn't very rational, as has been shown time and time and time and time again.

Uh huh. One word for you disaster denier. Fukushima. Even if no other massive society changing event happens in our lifetimes (which is doubtful) you are already in the middle of one that has and will contaminate you and this entire planet for decades before it is even partially contained.