How likely is intel to match qualcomm CPUs in the future?

[Fjodor2001]

I never claimed 50% for 2014.

You are too busy with the person instead of the ball as usual.

Your link is also an estimate for 2014 and 2015. But I guess you knew that since its from october 2014.

Tablet sales in 2014 ended at 224.9M units. And tablet sales for 2015 already declined 7 million units compared to 2014.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/272070/global-tablet-shipments-by-quarter/

But remember tablets include kindle, blackberry, nook etc.

So 224.9M vs 229M units in 2014. Does it matter? 46/224.9=0.2045 => 20.45% tablet market share in 2014. I.e. still 20%.

And you are expecting it to jump to 50% in 2015? That will not happen. Not even with Intel's contra revenue program.

 

[Thanatosis]

Where did you guys find this Shintai guy?


LOL

 

[ShintaiDK]

So 224.9M vs 229M units in 2014. Does it matter? 46/224.9=0.2045 => 20.45% tablet market share in 2014. I.e. still 20%.

And you are expecting it to jump to 50% in 2015? That will not happen. Not even with Intel's contra revenue program.

I said 40-50%. And with the declining tablet sales and increasing Intel shipment its not impossible. Specially not in what we consider the traditional tablets. I dont think you would classify a kindle or nook as a tablet, but rather an eReader.

 

[sm625]

Intel will never be able to match qualcomm because Intel's board and shareholders are just too damn greedy. There is no way they can exist in a market where every single competitor charges 5 to 10 times less per square millimeter of silicon. Intel's silicon just isnt that good to be demanding a 500-1000% premium. The only way they've gotten into mobile at all is due to dumping silicon at a loss. But what kind of strategy is that? Is their goal to simply settle out at typical margins? If so then their stock price is going to get clubbed a lot more than what's happened this week.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Qualcomm is "too damn greedy" too. That is why they cant compete with MediaTek etc.

So if you consider Intel out, you also consider Qualcomm out. They are the same side of the coin.

I dont think either Intel or Qualcomm got any future in the smartphone segment due to the current trends. And Apple sooner or later need to severely rethink their approach.

 

[podspi]

Qualcomm is "too damn greedy" too. That is why they cant compete with MediaTek etc.

So if you consider Intel out, you also consider Qualcomm out. They are the same side of the coin.

I dont think either Intel or Qualcomm got any future in the smartphone segment due to the current trends. And Apple sooner or later need to severely rethink their approach.

I think you are correct, and we've started to see this with their SoCs using ARM's CPU designs.

QC has two major advantages:

1) Radio
2) Custom core CPUs (and maybe?) GPUs.


If the new cores blow away the ARM ones, like they have traditionally, QC will do better next generation. If not, well...

Intel has it a bit harder, even if their cores are equal to QCs, QC is preferred due to better radio and due to being ARM-based. I understand why the NDK has and is being used - particularly for those devices based off of the slower ARM cores - but it really limits competition from the MIPs and x86 crowd. As a manufacturer, even if the x86 (or MIPs) core is a bit faster, you're still going to go for the ARM-based chip because compatibility is better. Even if 9 in 10 apps work fine on alternative architectures, whatever you get for losing that 1 app has to be worth it, which hasn't been the case (imho) for any x86 or MIPs SoC so far. Add into the mix radios and 'other stuff' and it is no wonder Intel is having trouble. They made a huge mistake selling off xscale, imho. They could have slowly introduced SoCs with x86, while continuing to build their brand presence in mobile.

 

[kpkp]

The current trend in the smartphone segment is that people move to cheaper phones. The era of expensive flagship phones is coming to an end. We can already see growth is going down fast. And by next year I am sure the smartphone market will be in recession like the tablet and PC market.

But the ASP is really getting hit hard in the smartphone segment. 100-200$ Chinese smartphones is what people want now. Not 500-800$ smartphones as the companies could get away with before.

While I don't disagree with you about this happening, the ASP for Q2 2015 was 3% up YoY. However this trend is already strongly visible in Europe and in the Central, South Americas. While North America and China had a huge jump in ASP, I suspect mostly doe to iPhones.

 

[Nothingness]

Your paranoia is nonsense.

Only the paranoid survives :biggrin:

I think ShintaiDK point about low cost getting more and more important is valid. A recent example is Google One phone which is using a Mediatek SoC. Will we see something similar to what Intel did to the competition 20-30 years ago? Hard to say...

 

[StrangerGuy]

While I don't disagree with you about this happening, the ASP for Q2 2015 was 3% up YoY. However this trend is already strongly visible in Europe and in the Central, South Americas. While North America and China had a huge jump in ASP, I suspect mostly doe to iPhones.

It's all entirely due to the huge surge of iPhone 6 sales. Android flagships are a dying segment thanks to the "good enough" effect; from the SoC point of view the base OS itself is more and more optimized and most of the popular Android games aren't even 3D to begin with, much less remotely taxing a 2013 SD800 SoC. F2P game devs simply ain't going to ignore 80% of the Android handset base with low end phones just to cater for flagship owners.

 

[kpkp]

It's all entirely due to the huge surge of iPhone 6 sales. Android flagships are a dying segment thanks to the "good enough" effect; from the SoC point of view the base OS itself is more and more optimized and most of the popular Android games aren't even 3D to begin with, much less remotely taxing a 2013 SD800 SoC. F2P game devs simply ain't going to ignore 80% of the Android handset base with low end phones just to cater for flagship owners.

It's not entirely, Huawei also had a great Q earned about 4% in shipments maketshare and had a higher ASP YoY. People upgrading from $100 phones to $200 phones also count.