How likely is intel to match qualcomm CPUs in the future?

[poohbear]

Hey all, so i've been reading that intel is focused on making a big dent in the mobile cpu market, and all their cpu releases have been heavily focused on this (climaxing with Broadwell M, very power efficient!). While it may suck for us desktop enthusiasts that we're not seeing any performance gains, their improvements in battery/power efficiency is undeniable. Qualcomm had a huge headstart over intel being in the right place at the right time with the explosion of mobile devises in late 2000s, but intel has huge cash reserves and some of the best engineers in the world. With the 4G generation of mobile devices i've read that intel pretty much lost that battle (qualcomm has set the standard for 4G modem/wifi devices and everyone follows their standards), and they're focusing on the 5g generation of mobile devices whose standards haven't been set yet.

Can intel match qualcomm with the next gen 5G devices? Will it's heavy focus on battery/power efficiency rival, and maybe overtake, qualcomm's? Intel is the behemoth afterall, so i assume it's likely. What are your thoughts on the matter?

 

[NTMBK]

Intel just haven't been executing well in mobile. Every mobile chip has been heavily delayed, to the extent that they have missed their chance by the time they launch.

If Intel gets its act together in mobile and starts executing like clockwork, like they used to in desktop, they could make some decent inroads. But given their track record I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

[witeken]

Their modems are catching up. They have process lead that will be a big advantage to them and gives them some headroom if IPC isn't top class.

Here's a relevant and quite recent interview.

http://www.anandtech.com/show/9131/...ent-of-intels-communication-and-devices-group

 

[bononos]

Its just a matter of time before Intel makes some waves in the mobile market. Intel has the capacity to absorb some bad projects like Larrabee and continue to move forward.
It would help if Qualcomm makes a small stumble like their recent overheating problems. I don't know how much of that was a factor with the rise of Mediatek, Kirin but it couldn't have helped.

 

[ShintaiDK]

The question is what is Qualcomms future. They have been pretty much messing up time after time lately with one overheating thottlemonster after the other.

 

[VirtualLarry]

The question is what is Qualcomms future. They have been pretty much messing up time after time lately with one overheating thottlemonster after the other.

Intel is certainly no better. My passively-cooled Z3735F Atom MeegoPad T02 Compute Stick, will throttle from 1.33 down to 0.24, during continuous use / network traffic.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Intel is certainly no better. My passively-cooled Z3735F Atom MeegoPad T02 Compute Stick, will throttle from 1.33 down to 0.24, during continuous use / network traffic.

If it throttles down to 240Mhz something is seriously wrong that isnt about the CPU. But its a questionable company isnt it. The T01 shipped with unlicensed Windows 8.1. And make sure its not behind some TV thats pretty hot on the backside. I had an idea of a NUC behind the TV until I touched the TV on the backside.

Qualcomm is missing huge deals and have financial issues due to overheating. So much the stock holders are on the barricades.

 

[NTMBK]

Its just a matter of time before Intel makes some waves in the mobile market. Intel has the capacity to absorb some bad projects like Larrabee and continue to move forward.

And in the run-up to Larrabee, people were saying: "It's just a matter of time before Intel makes some waves in the GPU market. Intel has the capacity to absorb some bad projects like Itanium and continue to move forward."

They're not infallible.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Modem wise it is looking good for Intel. Apple is positioned to move 30% of its modem usage to Intel. And the real game in mobile is modems.

 

[witeken]

And in the run-up to Larrabee, people were saying: "It's just a matter of time before Intel makes some waves in the GPU market. Intel has the capacity to absorb some bad projects like Itanium and continue to move forward."

They're not infallible.

Larrabee is now used for HPC. The fastest supercomputer has Phi and more will use Knights Landing.

http://images.anandtech.com/doci/8732/XeonPhiGenerations.jpg

 

[witeken]

Modem wise it is looking good for Intel. Apple is positioned to move 30% of its modem usage to Intel. And the real game in mobile is modems.

The real game is SoC. System on a chip. The whole system. There can be deal breakers like cellular, but GPU, CPU, ISP, power consumption are also important.

 

[Nothingness]

Their modems are catching up. They have process lead that will be a big advantage to them and gives them some headroom if IPC isn't top class.

To get modem they had to buy a company. And their problem isn't the IPC, but the fact they can't build a SoC that matches market expectations in a timely fashion.

Here's a relevant and quite recent interview.

http://www.anandtech.com/show/9131/...ent-of-intels-communication-and-devices-group

It's surprising that the VP of Intel Communication and Devices Group believes in her company :biggrin:

 

[witeken]

It's surprising that the VP of Intel Communication and Devices Group believes in her company :biggrin:

Quite a silly response to such an in-depth interview. It's like the foundry. They don't have a first mover advantage, quite the opposite, but they're learning quickly and in the long term will be successful, at least on par.

 

[Nothingness]

And in the run-up to Larrabee, people were saying: "It's just a matter of time before Intel makes some waves in the GPU market. Intel has the capacity to absorb some bad projects like Itanium and continue to move forward."

They are serving the same s..t for mobile chips: next generation will be THE ONE. And they've been claiming so since 2008. Funny to watch.

But I guess they'll finally have something significant, if only because they have to exist in that market if they want to keep on growing (and because their engineers certainly are able to achieve great things).

 

[Nothingness]

Quite a silly response to such an in-depth interview. It's like the foundry. They don't have a first mover advantage, quite the opposite, but they're learning quickly and in the long term will be successful, at least on par.

You're free to drink Intel kool aid, I don't trust any more Intel comm, marketing and VP as I don't trust ARM and others. They're all the same to me, a waste of my time ^_^

 

[ShintaiDK]

The current trend in the smartphone segment is that people move to cheaper phones. The era of expensive flagship phones is coming to an end. We can already see growth is going down fast. And by next year I am sure the smartphone market will be in recession like the tablet and PC market.

But the ASP is really getting hit hard in the smartphone segment. 100-200$ Chinese smartphones is what people want now. Not 500-800$ smartphones as the companies could get away with before.

I think companies like MediaTek will be the smartphone SoC king. And I think Intel will end up reconsidering if there is any money in it.

The tablet market however seems pretty much won for Intel and will come out of the year with 40-50% share.

 

[witeken]

You're free to drink Intel kool aid, I don't trust any more Intel comm, marketing and VP as I don't trust ARM and others. They're all the same to me, a waste of my time ^_^

Dude. That interview just SCREAMS genuine. Your paranoia is nonsense.

 

[Fjodor2001]

The current trend in the smartphone segment is that people move to cheaper phones. The era of expensive flagship phones is coming to an end. We can already see growth is going down fast. And by next year I am sure the smartphone market will be in recession like the tablet and PC market.
But the ASP is really getting hit hard in the smartphone segment. 100-200$ Chinese smartphones is what people want now. Not 500-800$ smartphones as the companies could get away with before.

I think companies like MediaTek will be the smartphone SoC king. And I think Intel will end up reconsidering if there is any money in it.

This generation of Samsung and Apple phones have been more expensive than ever. Did you see what the Samsung Galaxy S6 Edge 128 MB was priced at on launch?

So we're not quite there yet. But I agree that this is the direction it'll likely go in.

The tablet market however seems pretty much won for Intel and will come out of the year with 40-50% share.

Wut? Intel having 50% of the tablet market share? Really? Show us the source indicating that.

 

[ShintaiDK]

This generation of Samsung and Apple phones have been more expensive than ever. Did you see what the Samsung Galaxy S6 Edge 128 MB was priced at on launch?

So we're not quite there yet. But I agree that this is the direction it'll likely go in.

Wut? Intel having 50% of the tablet market share? Really? Show us the source indicating that.

The S6 flopped epicly and the lack of sales of expensive smartphones show in Samsungs financial results.

In case of Intel and tablets its quite easy. Take their shipped numbers in 2014 and projected numbers for 2015 and compare with the number of shipped tablets.

 

[Fjodor2001]

The S6 flopped epicly and the lack of sales of expensive smartphones show in Samsungs financial results.

Apple iPhone is also expensive, and has sold very well.

In case of Intel and tablets its quite easy. Take their shipped numbers in 2014 and projected numbers for 2015 and compare with the number of shipped tablets.

It's just that - "projected numbers". Intel has been projecting their imminent success in the mobile/tablet segment since 2008 and so far they have always failed.

Do you have some data on actual tablets sold that indicate Intel has 50% market share? Nope? Thought so.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Despite of the iPhone, the revenue is still declining for smartphones as people move to cheaper devices.

Intel sold 46 million in 2014. And they are on track for 70 million in 2015.

 

[TeknoBug]

Intel is certainly no better. My passively-cooled Z3735F Atom MeegoPad T02 Compute Stick, will throttle from 1.33 down to 0.24, during continuous use / network traffic.

That ain't right.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Despite of the iPhone, the revenue is still declining for smartphones as people move to cheaper devices.

Intel sold 46 million in 2014. And they are on track for 70 million in 2015.

So Intel has 46/229=0.20 => 20% market share in tablets in 2014. I.e. not 50% as you claimed.

What 2015 will turn out like is unknown and just speculation.

 

[ShintaiDK]

I never claimed 50% for 2014.

You are too busy with the person instead of the ball as usual.

Your link is also an estimate for 2014 and 2015. But I guess you knew that since its from october 2014.

Tablet sales in 2014 ended at 224.9M units. And tablet sales for 2015 already declined 7 million units compared to 2014.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/272070/global-tablet-shipments-by-quarter/

But remember tablets include kindle, blackberry, nook etc.

 

[witeken]

This generation of Samsung and Apple phones have been more expensive than ever. Did you see what the Samsung Galaxy S6 Edge 128 MB was priced at on launch?

So we're not quite there yet. But I agree that this is the direction it'll likely go in.

Wut? Intel having 50% of the tablet market share? Really? Show us the source indicating that.

Q2 tablets were up 11% Y/Y, a bit more than 11M or so. So they could have 50M or so this year, which is not 40-50% MSS.

Edit: But it still is a big number, they're one of the biggest suppliers, so Intel can't be ignored in the tablet space. They are not insignificant.