How high will gas go before an alternative takes over?

[AStar617]

Easily over $10, with the dollar adjusted for inflation over time. This is decades away at best.

 

[deejayshakur]

Originally posted by: cirthix
i dont plan on ever buying a car. the bus and a bike are good enough for me 🙂

amen.

i am still amazed at how far behind the US is in terms of mass transit systems compared to japan and a lot of asia. actually not amazed, more disappointed.

that being said, i look forward to moving into San Francisco next month so that i CAN hop on the bus and get somewhere. in suburbia, that just isn't a choice. of course, the trade off is that i'll be hit with obscene rents AND obscene gas prices.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: BoomerD
Considering that, (according to the various urban legends) the oil companies buy up all the alternative patents, then keep them to them selves. Most of us have heard of the carburator that would have given you 50+ MPG, and things like that, which are supposedly owned by some oil company. Could they be true? MAYBE, since allowing such things to become available to the public would clash with the oil companies goal of selling more gasoline...

They're not true. Internal combustion engines work by converting chemical energy to heat energy to mechanical energy. As such, they are horribly inefficient. Not because of the fuel delivery system, but because most of the heat energy that is produced is lost, either intentionally through the cooling system or unintentionally out the exhaust.
But hey, you could lean out your carbs or reprogram your fuel injection ECU for better gas mileage. But don't blame me or the manufacturer or the oil companies when your engine knocks itself to death (overly lean conditions cause pre-detonation).

 

[BatmanNate]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: BoomerD
Considering that, (according to the various urban legends) the oil companies buy up all the alternative patents, then keep them to them selves. Most of us have heard of the carburator that would have given you 50+ MPG, and things like that, which are supposedly owned by some oil company. Could they be true? MAYBE, since allowing such things to become available to the public would clash with the oil companies goal of selling more gasoline...

They're not true. Internal combustion engines work by converting chemical energy to heat energy to mechanical energy. As such, they are horribly inefficient. Not because of the fuel delivery system, but because most of the heat energy that is produced is lost, either intentionally through the cooling system or unintentionally out the exhaust.
But hey, you could lean out your carbs or reprogram your fuel injection ECU for better gas mileage. But don't blame me or the manufacturer or the oil companies when your engine knocks itself to death (overly lean conditions cause pre-detonation).

We have gained a great deal of efficiency through tighter control of the a/f ratio by switching over to a computerized system versus the old, strictly mechanical system. There is still progress being made in small measure to make combustion engines more efficient. Forced induction is a good example as well (particularly for diesel engines) and was made even more efficient by going to a map sensor in place of the maf, tighter control of the ratio under boost conditions.

 

[scorpmatt]

I say $6.50 unless oil compaines get a new non-greedy leadership

Americans arent always the brightest sort. Hell we pay XXX ammount of dollars for a luxury car that in other countries that same car is under a different name. IE Toyota/Lexus Nissan/Infiniti (now i know that both companies are starting to sell more of the "luxury line" in toher countries, lets not start that war"

one last thing, I now remember why I stopped coming into the AT Forums, thanks ATOT!

 

[myusername]

Originally posted by: Ronstang

Originally posted by: mugs

Originally posted by: myusername
It's a trick question.

An alternative does not and will not exist.

Simply because the market would bear an alternative does not mean that the technology and distribution system can spontaneously arise.

When the gas is gone, those of us left alive will walk.

.... have you been living in a hole? 😕 You haven't heard of ethanol, biodiesel? Even hydrogen, electric (even though they need some other energy source to generate them)?

The alternatives may not be as GOOD as gasoline, but they are alternatives.

Efficient coal liquefaction will save the day actually. We, as in the US, have about 800 years of coal reserves. We have more coal than all the oil in the world combined. This technology is not new but is being fine tuned and tested as we speak by one oil company.

(@mugs) Ethanol and Bioiesel work fine as supplements , as well as being a practical energy carrier. However, if all the suitable land in the US - ncluding all the land that we currently use for important things like - oh - food was converted to bio-fuel crop farming, there still would not be as much fuel produced as we currently consume - and our consumption rate is not falling. While hydrogen and electricity sound nice, they are not suitable answers to our society. Notwithstanding that they are not energy sources (which is what we need), when was the last time you saw a hydrogen or electrically powered tractor trailer? A seamless transition to any other fuel source is simply is not in the cards. We are going to crash, and hard.

(@ronstang) I would be interested in seeing any information you can offer on this. While I agree that we have an abundance of coal, The numbers I have seen suggest we have a 300+ year supply at current usage, but that using it for liquefaction will reduce the supply to about 50+ years. Also, I believe there is some concern as to how much of it can be accessed and processed with a net positive energy yield.

Additionally, coal mining and liquefaction on that scale will dramatically increase atmospheric carbon to the point where even the most skeptical scientists forsee global warming and catastrophic climate change.

Not to mention the problem of scaling up the industry. I don't doubt that it will ultimately be the path we take, but I hardly think it will be a seamless transition .. I do think that ultimately it will be a fatal mistake.

 

[BoomerD]

What no one wants to accept, is that at $3.00/ gallon, gasoline is really not much more expensive than it was in the early 80's when compared to other costs.
I remember paying $1.40/$1.50/ gallon in 1980/81, and only made about $12-$15/hr., and today's wage scale for me is in the mid $30's to low $40's. Not a huge difference when compared that way. Do I like paying this price for gasoline? HELL NO! The way I look at it, (tongue-in cheek) this is an American invention, and we deserve to pay $.25/ gallon for gas. Oil from foreign countries...developed by American ingenuity, know-how, and technology. Most likely paid for by American Oil companies to buiild the plants, and do the drilling. Later nationalized by the Arabs or Venezualans, but Americans developed the technology! We get the oil cheaper than the rest of the world! 😉

 

[FoBoT]

people voting $4-$6 are going to be surprised when nothing changes

 

[mugs]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: DainBramaged
Furthermore, why haven't European countries already come up with it?

Because actual European gas prices aren't much different than in the US. The extra cost at the pump is mostly sky-high taxes. The governments make more money from gasoline than do the oil companies. This gives them strong motivation to maintain the current status quo as opposed to seeking alternatives.

No it doesn't, they would just tax the alternative just as much. 😕

 

[j00fek]

another thread about gas. nothing will be done soon so get over it ppl and conserv what you can.

 

[kmrivers]

Originally posted by: deejayshakur

Originally posted by: cirthix
i dont plan on ever buying a car. the bus and a bike are good enough for me 🙂

amen.

i am still amazed at how far behind the US is in terms of mass transit systems compared to japan and a lot of asia. actually not amazed, more disappointed.

that being said, i look forward to moving into San Francisco next month so that i CAN hop on the bus and get somewhere. in suburbia, that just isn't a choice. of course, the trade off is that i'll be hit with obscene rents AND obscene gas prices.

I agree, the bike and bus do it for me. I will not be buying a car ever again. The only thing I am considering is a scooter. Like a Honda Ruckus so i can get 100+ MPG.

The U.S. surely needs to get working on a mass transit system. If I was being developed for the last 30 years, I am sure by now it would amazing. It sucks that I can't travel 100 miles without having a car.

 

[marvdmartian]

Originally posted by: myusername
It's a trick question.

An alternative does not and will not exist.

Simply because the market would bear an alternative does not mean that the technology and distribution system can spontaneously arise.

When the gas is gone, those of us left alive will walk.

Sorry, but I totally disagree with you. Alternative fuels exist now, even though they're currently still a bit higher in price than gasoline. Biodiesel can be burned in pretty much any engine that can run on dino-diesel. Vehicles that are in cold weather climates would have to be retrofitted with a dual-source fuel system, since it's much easier to start a cold engine with dino-diesel than bio-diesel, but once it's started & warmed up, can be easily switched over to the bio-diesel tank, thus minimizing the use of the dino-diesel. No other changes need be made.
E-85 (a mixture of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline) is the only alternative fuel that currently can't simply be switched right over, and that's only due to it's incompatability with aluminum. Newer vehicles are being fitted with fuel systems that either contain no aluminum, or have aluminum pieces plated with an E85-inert metal, like nickel. So while older cars are pretty well screwed, the average consumer who trades in a vehicle every 5 years should have an E-85 compatible vehicle within the next few years. For those wishing to keep their older gas-burning vehicles, alternatives such as propane do exist, although you are correct that the infrastructure is not in place for refueling stations for those people who wish to use that alternative.

Bottom line? There is a suitable alternative, and I think it's entirely viable today. It's only going to take 100 million ticked off consumers unwilling to pay whatever high price for fuel it will finally take, to get those alternatives in place permanently. I believe it will likely be in 10 to 12 years, or when gas hits $8 a gallon, whichever comes first.


.........of course, I'll still be waiting for my "Mr Fusion"!! :laugh:

 

[Demon-Xanth]

Changes take time.

Because of safety regulations, cars will not get much lighter (I mean, the Civic is close to 3000LBs now!). Riding a motorcycle is something that takes a signifigant amount of skill and a major change in routine, so it's not for most people (do Gold Wings come with cup holders?). Alternative forms of energy have massive downsides. Mainly the lack of infrastructure and production facilities. Gasoline and diesel have a very high energy density compared to alcohols. Hydrogen is more of an energy storage device than a fuel. Electric cars might be viable if a "quick charge" (ie: a few minutes vs. a few hours) was developed AND a way to generate the electricity used could find it's way through environmentalists.

Other than that, the only real way around it would be a negative population growth. Which sure as hell isn't happening.

 

[nakedfrog]

Originally posted by: BoomerD
Considering that, (according to the various urban legends) the oil companies buy up all the alternative patents, then keep them to them selves. Most of us have heard of the carburator that would have given you 50+ MPG, and things like that, which are supposedly owned by some oil company. Could they be true? MAYBE, since allowing such things to become available to the public would clash with the oil companies goal of selling more gasoline...

Like the carburetor on this car?

 

[Demon-Xanth]

Originally posted by: BoomerD
Considering that, (according to the various urban legends) the oil companies buy up all the alternative patents, then keep them to them selves. Most of us have heard of the carburator that would have given you 50+ MPG, and things like that, which are supposedly owned by some oil company. Could they be true? MAYBE, since allowing such things to become available to the public would clash with the oil companies goal of selling more gasoline...

The patents on such carburators have expired. Why not make it yourself?

 

[fitzov]

We will never run out of oil or gasoline.

rofl. It's posts like these Vic, that totally undermine your flowery language credibility.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: fitzov

We will never run out of oil or gasoline.

rofl. It's posts like these Vic, that totally undermine your flowery language credibility.

Nice selective edit and personal attack. :roll:

Should you join your fellow nihilists back in P&N?