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How hard Bayesian theory and is it usefull information.

M

MySoS

Senior member
I am doing a study plan to decide which class I plan to take for my major. I was thinking about doing a course in a Bayesian theory. For you people who have taken this which I am sure isn't many how hard is this class. Some people I have spoken to say it is easy, and some say it is hard. So what do you all say.



Note this is not Bayesian Networking for you CE, EE people which is an unrealated thing.
 
Imagine it would consist of the application of Bayes' work; essentially mathematical modeling, logical inferences, etc.

As to how difficult it would be, that depends on your mathematical/statistical background.
 
Originally posted by: ActuaryTm
Imagine it would consist of the application of Bayes' work; essentially mathematical modeling, logical inferences, etc.

As to how difficult it would be, that depends on your mathematical/statistical background.
Click to expand...


What about Nonparamentric statistics. What is this. I plan to go into the Actuary field. Would either one be usefull.
 
Major advisors exist for a purpose. Best advice would include speaking to one of them.

As to the actuarial field, it actually depends greatly on which directional track one plans to persue (Life/Financial or Property/Casualty), and subsequently which exams one plans to take. Considering your knowledge on the subject, a 3xxx or 4xxx level course in basic modeling may be more apropos.
 
Originally posted by: MySoS
Originally posted by: ActuaryTm
Imagine it would consist of the application of Bayes' work; essentially mathematical modeling, logical inferences, etc.

As to how difficult it would be, that depends on your mathematical/statistical background.
Click to expand...


What about Nonparamentric statistics. What is this. I plan to go into the Actuary field. Would either one be usefull.
Click to expand...

Why are you interested in becoming an actuary?
 
ActuaryTm gave you some very good advice, I would only add that if you know what type of work and what type of firm you would like to work for, go down to one and ask them. It would give you an idea of what a company in the field that you want to work for looks for in a candidate and it can be a nice excuse to try to make some connections.

Also don't ask which is easiest. Ask which one will benefit you the most. That is really what is important.
 
Originally posted by: cchen
Originally posted by: MySoS
Originally posted by: ActuaryTm
Imagine it would consist of the application of Bayes' work; essentially mathematical modeling, logical inferences, etc.

As to how difficult it would be, that depends on your mathematical/statistical background.
Click to expand...


What about Nonparamentric statistics. What is this. I plan to go into the Actuary field. Would either one be usefull.
Click to expand...

Why are you interested in becoming an actuary?
Click to expand...

Because there is a lot of math and statistics and we all know math and statistics are fun.
 
Originally posted by: MySoS

Why are you interested in becoming an actuary?
Click to expand...

Because there is a lot of math and statistics and we all know math and statistics are fun.[/quote]

I feel like the actuarial field is too narrow and focused.
 
Originally posted by: cchen
Originally posted by: MySoS

Why are you interested in becoming an actuary?
Click to expand...

Because there is a lot of math and statistics and we all know math and statistics are fun.
Click to expand...

I feel like the actuarial field is too narrow and focused.[/quote]

But the pay is great if you can pass those test.
 
Besides the fact that the work is boring, and the pay is pretty good, look at the long run. Do you see any actuaries in senior, executive type positions? Nope.
 
Originally posted by: cchen
Besides the fact that the work is boring, and the pay is pretty good, look at the long run. Do you see any actuaries in senior, executive type positions? Nope.
Click to expand...

Well the reason why you don't see any probably is because there are so few actuaries. There are less than 20,000 Associates and Fellows. But there are a lot making over 200K a year which is fine by me.
 
Originally posted by: cchen
I feel like the actuarial field is too narrow and focused.
Click to expand...
Actually, it's become quite the opposite. It isn't at all unusual to have an in-house actuary in the corporate office of nearly any business line, or outsource one's needs to an experienced consulting actuary.

Would say it is (or rather, has become) an extremely diverse field.
 
Originally posted by: MySoS
Originally posted by: cchen
Besides the fact that the work is boring, and the pay is pretty good, look at the long run. Do you see any actuaries in senior, executive type positions? Nope.
Click to expand...

Well the reason why you don't see any probably is because there are so few actuaries. There are less than 20,000 Associates and Fellows.
Click to expand...

You don't get my point. There are no actuaries who have advanced to the top of companies
 
Originally posted by: ActuaryTm
Originally posted by: cchen
I feel like the actuarial field is too narrow and focused.
Click to expand...
Actually, it's become quite the opposite. It isn't at all unusual to have an in-house actuary in the corporate office of nearly any business line, or outsource one's needs to an experienced consulting actuary.

Would say it is (or rather, has become) an extremely diverse field.
Click to expand...

Not to knock the actuarial field but anyone with an advanced degree in statistics, operations research, or industrial engineering can do what an actuary does, and a lot more
 
Originally posted by: cchen
Besides the fact that the work is boring, and the pay is pretty good, look at the long run. Do you see any actuaries in senior, executive type positions? Nope.
Click to expand...
Incorrect.

FSAs/FCASs (or for that matter, ASAs/ACASs with a great deal of experience) often end up as CEOs, CFOs, or the like.
 
Originally posted by: cchen
Originally posted by: MySoS
Originally posted by: cchen
Besides the fact that the work is boring, and the pay is pretty good, look at the long run. Do you see any actuaries in senior, executive type positions? Nope.
Click to expand...

Well the reason why you don't see any probably is because there are so few actuaries. There are less than 20,000 Associates and Fellows.
Click to expand...

You don't get my point. There are no actuaries who have advanced to the top of companies
Click to expand...


The average salary in the top 10% for a fellow in actuaries with 20 years of experience is over 400K. He/She may not be the CEO or such but 400K is great still. There are also Fellows who make over 1 million.
 
Originally posted by: MySoS
Originally posted by: cchen
Originally posted by: MySoS
Originally posted by: cchen
Besides the fact that the work is boring, and the pay is pretty good, look at the long run. Do you see any actuaries in senior, executive type positions? Nope.
Click to expand...

Well the reason why you don't see any probably is because there are so few actuaries. There are less than 20,000 Associates and Fellows.
Click to expand...

You don't get my point. There are no actuaries who have advanced to the top of companies
Click to expand...


The average salary in the top 10% for a fellow in actuaries with 20 years of experience is over 400K. He/She may not be the CEO or such but 400K is great still.
Click to expand...

Again, you don't see my point. I'm not knocking the actuarial field. But I do believe that other fields have a lot more potential for sucess, advancement, and salary. If you become an actuary, you pretty much have to stay within its confines.
 
Originally posted by: cchen
You don't get my point. There are no actuaries who have advanced to the top of companies
Click to expand...
Not to knock the actuarial field but anyone with an advanced degree in statistics, operations research, or industrial engineering can do what an actuary does, and a lot more
Click to expand...
Would have to say you may be a bit misinformed in this arena. The above conclusions are false. Perhaps you could expound on the factual basis of your conclusions?
 
Originally posted by: ActuaryTm
Originally posted by: cchen
You don't get my point. There are no actuaries who have advanced to the top of companies
Click to expand...
Not to knock the actuarial field but anyone with an advanced degree in statistics, operations research, or industrial engineering can do what an actuary does, and a lot more
Click to expand...
Would have to say you may be a bit misinformed in this arena. The above conclusions are false. Perhaps you could expound on the factual basis of your conclusions?
Click to expand...

Whats false about what I said? From surveying some of the fortune 500 companies, I haven't seen any executives, partners, etc that have actuarial background. I have seen many people with statistics or OR background
Perhaps I am just biased because I come from an OR background
 
Originally posted by: cchen
Whats false about what I said? From surveying some of the fortune 500 companies, I haven't seen any executives, partners, etc that have actuarial background. I have seen many people with statistics or OR background
Perhaps I am just biased because I come from an OR background
Click to expand...
Typically attend a number of actuarial functions in a given year (ratemaking seminars, annual meetings, colloquia), and nearly all the speakers (as well as a number of the attendees) are at the chief executive level. Will see if I can find a listing from the latest event (see post below).

As with any career track, a majority of advancement is contingent upon the company itself, one's success within the company (understanding the business line as a whole, offering innovation or new ideas, willingness to learn alternate aspects of company function, etc), and the individual's own motivation/goals. Also, would be remiss if it were not mentioned that not all actuaries stem from the same educational background - be it mathamatics, statistics, economics, finance, etc - and thus, in surveying any listing it may not be apparent which particular field within a given company an executive or partner rose through.
 
Did not attend this particular CAS (Casualty Actuarial Society) event over a year ago, but it seemed rather relevant as not only was the speaker himself an actuary and former CFO (now the President), but the topic was "The CFO and the Actuary: Financial Odd Couple or Dynamic Duo".

Link to Powerpoint presentation materials.
 
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