How do we get out of this mess??Consumer confidence after the lock down?

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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
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We literally need an army of people involved in contact tracing. This article explains why.


Combined with more widespread testing, contact tracing is seen as an essential part of the strategy for keeping the coronavirus in check after the first wave recedes and the economy reopens. But the work is highly labor-intensive, and public health departments across the U.S. have been woefully underfunded for years.


“This is going to test the capacity of the existing public health system,” said Marcus Plescia, chief medical officer of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials. “I don’t know if we have enough staff in public health departments to do that.”


I really think that should have been done from the start. But is it not too late at this point? Is it not the case that the infection is too widespread? (I mean, I don't know, I'm no public health expert, I just thought all our governments in the West were being way too complacent right from the start).
 

HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
35,966
27,643
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I was just wondering what happens to our consumer-driven economy after the lockdown? restaurants and bars? how long before people go back? travel? sports? retail? luxury goods? the list goes on..not to mention to impact to local and state budgets with no income...how many small businesses can survive a lockdown past May? I feel like we are underestimating the impact, I have to think severe depression on the horizon.

Does everyone think most consumers will start acting normal anytime soon?
If widespread testing ever happens recovery will be quicker. One of the biggest failings of this administration.

Right now can't see it happening until 2021.
 
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Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,458
987
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I'm TRYING to do my part...I'm looking seriously at buying a new pickup...but the fckng shutdown has me blocked...by the time it's over...I might have decided to just keep my 2018 another couple of years.

Dealerships not open where you are? All dealerships around DFW are open by appointment only(Dallas and Tarrant county) or just open(Surrounding counties).

I almost pulled the trigger on a Jeep Gladiator Overland fully loaded for 25% off MSRP yesterday.
 

HeXen

Diamond Member
Dec 13, 2009
7,831
37
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I'm still working and see a lot of people out and about and hear about how bored so many are. I live near a lot of restaurants and their lots are still full with people doing carry outs. I think things will quickly resume but likely many will still practice distancing. My stepson works in a factory and their letting some of them come back tomorrow but they just have to stand 6 ft apart now. Where my wife works, they have been hiring lawyers to find ways to let them become an essential business even though they are just a photo lab. They managed to get the govt. to allow a few employees work but they are still fighting it for the remainder....but yet my wife is making more money laid off than she did working even without the unemployment bonus.

But whatever, my life hasn't changed except for the procedures to eat out and shop and my job will always be required so whatever. Yet oddly enough we have more money in our accounts now than we've had in quite a while.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,382
7,445
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Yup. IF they start giving every person 2k per month and then those on unemployment are getting $600 plus the state amount ($450 in cali) per week thats $6000 per month. Most people will be in love with the new future.

$1,000 /mo to every person costs about 25% of all personal income to afford and implement.
I'd see it adjusted for inflation, etc... but any significantly larger amount is not feasible. Just becomes debt, thus, temporary at best.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,382
7,445
136
My stepson works in a factory and their letting some of them come back tomorrow but they just have to stand 6 ft apart now.

6 ft and back to work eh?
A cough travels 20 feet. Sneeze 27 feet.
And, at a minimum, half the infected are asymptomatic. Meaning no one will know or stop them from making contact.

AKA, any "contact" with other people is going to spread COVID-19. Even if you doubled the 6 ft rule.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
45,896
32,696
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6 ft and back to work eh?
A cough travels 20 feet. Sneeze 27 feet.
And, at a minimum, half the infected are asymptomatic. Meaning no one will know or stop them from making contact.

AKA, any "contact" with other people is going to spread COVID-19. Even if you doubled the 6 ft rule.

Unencumbered in a closed environment packed with people it's a problem. This is why masks are going to be so important, not to the healthy but for everybody who is sick or asymptomatic.

Space people out, ban large or close quarters gatherings, put everyone in masks, do temp checks, make sure people self report when ill, and have enough testing to get to all symptomatic people and also enough to surveil the general population at random for breakouts.
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
12,974
7,891
136
6 ft and back to work eh?
A cough travels 20 feet. Sneeze 27 feet.
And, at a minimum, half the infected are asymptomatic. Meaning no one will know or stop them from making contact.

AKA, any "contact" with other people is going to spread COVID-19. Even if you doubled the 6 ft rule.

Even a simple mask would stop that cough and sneeze issue.
 
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Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
31,493
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I'm THIS close to making an offer on a house. My dad made the good point that I should wait till things stabilize a bit that way my company doesn't decide "hey we need to shut down entirely, you're furloughed for X months". I don't think that would happen, but definitely worth avoiding that risk (low likelihood, high consequence).
 

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,399
3,947
126
$1,000 /mo to every person costs about 25% of all personal income to afford and implement.
I'd see it adjusted for inflation, etc... but any significantly larger amount is not feasible. Just becomes debt, thus, temporary at best.

2000 per month for any person over 16 has been introduced. Anything is feasible when the fed is buying treasuries.
 

MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
8,722
7,828
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Does everyone think most consumers will start acting normal anytime soon?
Not until an effective vaccine has widely administered throughout the population.

Sitting in a bar and restaurant, and you hear someone coughing... yea, no thanks, unless I have had a vaccine.

And think back, how did this spread across the globe? Yea, by people traveling... Do you want people traveling to your city from all over the country/world, given that we know people can be asymptomatic yet be contagious.
 

Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
11,578
1,741
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Yup. IF they start giving every person 2k per month and then those on unemployment are getting $600 plus the state amount ($450 in cali) per week thats $6000 per month. Most people will be in love with the new future.

The problem is if we go this route how do we wean those people off the money? $2k a month for doing nothing is very inticing. Now, imagine if you do that for 6 months? I know how human psych works. Most people aren't going to be motivated to do much, and will come to expect the money every week. I know many are just hanging out at home chillin, playing video games and watching Netflix all day. You don't want to fall into this mode though. The longer you do, the harder it will be to find a new job. Or, even go back to your old job if and when it opens back up. Sad thing is that $2k a week is more than what many people make working at their real job.
 

Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
11,578
1,741
126
Not until an effective vaccine has widely administered throughout the population.

Sitting in a bar and restaurant, and you hear someone coughing... yea, no thanks, unless I have had a vaccine.

And think back, how did this spread across the globe? Yea, by people traveling... Do you want people traveling to your city from all over the country/world, given that we know people can be asymptomatic yet be contagious.

I have a friend whose a bartender, and has been one for 25 years. Makes amazing money. Or, he made great money. He's extremely worried. I saw him yesterday, and he expects that he will not work this summer. He's terrified because that is his main source of income. How do bars open with COVID-19 lingering. Point is, they don't open. That's the facts.
 

MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
8,722
7,828
136
I have a friend whose a bartender, and has been one for 25 years. Makes amazing money. Or, he made great money. He's extremely worried. I saw him yesterday, and he expects that he will not work this summer. He's terrified because that is his main source of income. How do bars open with COVID-19 lingering. Point is, they don't open. That's the facts.
Some states, which will remain un-named, but have republican governors will reopen bars and restaurants. They and their citizens will be the canary in the coal mind, and when cases spike again, and they have to close them again other states will see the error of their ways.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,049
12,719
136
6 months or so, by then people will be numb to people dying and it will be the new normal.
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
12,974
7,891
136
It's difficult to eat in a restaurant or have a beer in a tavern with a mask on.

I was responding to someone talking about having to go to work. Do you drink beer for a job? Lucky you!
 

SteveGrabowski

Diamond Member
Oct 20, 2014
6,806
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Trump has to get COVID and die and then we have to hope Pence would ramp testing and contact tracing up. We already know Trump isn't going to do it when he's in charge. So basically we're fucked both from a health and economic standpoint until this burns through the population.
 
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MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
8,722
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I was responding to someone talking about having to go to work. Do you drink beer for a job? Lucky you!
Yep, supporting our local breweries is my retirement job :beermug:

But going to work, you don't drink coffee/soda/water, you don't have meal breaks?
 

MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
8,722
7,828
136
Trump has to get COVID and die and then we have to hope Pence would ramp testing and contact tracing up. We already know Trump isn't going to do it when he's in charge. So basically we're fucked both from a health and economic standpoint until this burns through the population.
The good thing about Pence, he doesn't tweet his ignorance and hate 24/7. He must have other good qualities, but I can't think of any at the moment.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,049
12,719
136
Trump has to get COVID and die and then we have to hope Pence would ramp testing and contact tracing up. We already know Trump isn't going to do it when he's in charge. So basically we're fucked both from a health and economic standpoint until this burns through the population.
Pence would probably dial it down to #MoscowMitch levels which would still be two levels below the fucking orange insanity screaming right now?
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
12,974
7,891
136
Yep, supporting our local breweries is my retirement job :beermug:

But going to work, you don't drink coffee/soda/water, you don't have meal breaks?


Well, I don't know, it was just a passing thought. Maybe at meal breaks they could maintain greater spacing than they can during their working day, depending on what the job is?

I'm all for people not being obliged to go to work - at my friend's workplace they had a big fight (with the support of the union) over management's ludicrous insistence that everyone come in even though (a) their work was obviously non-essential and (b) there was no longer anything for them to do there anyway (they were asked to come in and sit and listen to managers give bizarre random lectures...I could imagine it being a plot-point in 'The Office').

But at some point people are going to have to go back, and the issue of sneezing and coughing at least is pretty much what masks are for. It does look as if the previous negativity about masks we had might be partly down to sniffy prejudice against anything Asians do.