Anyway, I'm not "bulletproof"--an insanely good unpatched 0day RCE could get me. But those things are really rare, and most importantly, the kind of stuff that can get me is also the kind of stuff that AV wouldn't have a prayer of stopping.
*Any* unpatched zero day could get you. It's just like driving my car. I'm not worried about *me* being a bad driver, i'm worried about all the other yutzes out there crossing three lanes of traffic at the last minute while talking on their cell. If MSN.com's ad network ends up with a malicious script laced in an advertisement, "smart browsing habits" aren't going to protect me, but there's a chance a good AV heuristics engine might. Are the odds of it catching that zero day slim? Yeah, but why wouldn't I want to increase my chances of not getting infected?
Whereas AV definitely gives a very dangerous false sense of security. I do cleanup for family, friends, and friends of family/friends. Unlike my computers, their computers all have AV. Yet they're the ones being compromised, not me. And the kinds of questions that I get are along the lines of "Why didn't the AV stop it?" or "What would you recommend as a better AV?"
Correlation =/= causation. Your family network of supported users aren't practicing smart browsing habits, it's not the AV's fault if the AV pops up yelling about a potentially dangerous script and little Joey intentionally clicks "run anyway" because he wants his flash game to load. AV is not a replacement for poor security consciousness and it never will be, but that doesn't mean it's useless in a security plan.
It's cost-vs-benefit. The cost is tremendous. Even with light AVs like Defender/MSE, disabling it results in very noticeable performance gains. In one extreme case, I have a large suite of utilities that I install on all the systems that I manage using a custom installer that I wrote. On my parents' desktop (which has MSE), it took almost a minute to install, with one core of the CPU completely pegged. On my netbook, despite having a slower CPU and slower drive, it took a few seconds...
...And there's the cost of false positives. Remember that time when installations of Excel were hosed by AV? Or the many pieces of legitimate software that get flagged as suspicious by overzealous heuristics?...
Tremendous, intolerable costs? I don't know what kind of rigs you're running, but MSE/Windows defender are not adding minutes to my software installs or any noticeable performance hit to my gaming habits or compute-based tasks. Anything with at least an i3 in isn't going to be bogged down by active antivirus protection, sorry. It's just not true, you're welcome to post some benchmarks to back it up though. It's 2014, not 1995.
And yes, occasionally there are false positives. That's why good AV prompts you on a detection and asks you what *you* want to do with the detection, quarantine it, delete it, or leave it be. You talk like AV software is regularly and maliciously deleting half the files on your hard drive "just because," its not. Personally, I move hundreds of gigs of files across my systems at home every month and not once in the last decade have I run into a false positive. Has it flagged things as questionable? Sure, but those were actually files of questionable integrity (pen testing tools, RATs, legitimately unsavory programs I was experimenting with in VMs, etc). It's also missed things that i've known were definitely malicious.
...But if you're tech-savvy enough to be a regular at a forum like this, AV is not something that will give you a lot of benefit. Certainly not enough to justify the intolerable costs that it incurs.
I'll absolutely agree with you, in that last decade AV has not particularly given me a lot of tangible benefit, it hasn't caught many legitimate threats. But that's because I view AV as the last line of defense in a multi-layered security approach, and catch or prevent 99% of potential threats at a higher level (running adblock/noscript, browsing trustworthy sites, not clicking phishing links, etc). However again, there has been no "intolerable cost" to that 1%. If anything noscript and adblock breaking websites has been more of a performance hit and a hassle than having MSE ticking in the background.
Now if you want to talk about something beyond fixing PCs for your family, I could pull the AV logs from my office, where software doesn't always get updated to the latest version for compatibility reasons, windows updates are staggered to make sure they don't break core software, and users will click nearly anything: for every threat that actually manages to get on a PC, our AV probably caught and prevented another 100+ potential infections for that user.