How are the Democrats going to resolve this scenario

[Starbuck1975]

Bloomberg Article

Taking Super Delegates, Michigan and Florida off the table, let's assume that the Democrats approach their Convention with Obama having won more delegates than Clinton...most likely by a narrow margin, but still enough to arguably perceive him as the choice of Democrat voters...or essentially defining both candidates as being stuck in a "draw".

This is where it could get ugly. If the Clinton campaign appeals for the Florida or Michigan delegates to count, those delegates could push Clinton ahead of Obama...but also simultaneously ignoring the rules established by their party, and the subsequent decision to discipline Florida and Michigan for scheduling their primaries too early. I can imagine such a decision would cause their convention to become rather heated and quite ugly.

A similar scenario, the Clintons could arguably broker their way towards attaining enough Super Delegates to push Hillary over the top, which similarly would prove a controversial way for her to win the nomination. This would most certainly frustrate Obama voters, who supported him under the premise of bringing change to the promise. If the Democrat establishment pushes Hillary over, it would arguably disenfranchise Obama supporters...particularly independents and young voters drawn to Obama's message, and not necessarily the Democrats as a political party.

At this point, from a strategic standpoint, I cannot see how the Democrats can possibly nominate Hillary without it getting very ugly, and their losing a significant portion of the voter surge that participated in their primaries and caucuses.

I can see Hillary supporters voting for Obama, because they are the Democrat core voters, and will want to see a Democrat take the White House regardless.

I cannot see Obama supporters surging to Hillary, as they are a demographic not usually motivated or engaged in the political process...much less the Democrats as a party.

 

[Pabster]

It's going to be a real concern.

If Clinton is seen as having stolen it from Obama, Democrats risk one of their most reliable voting blocks. Blacks. They'll abandon the ship.

 

[alchemize]

Obama has far more $$$ than Billary right now. He also has states upcoming that he'll pull off.

He'll easily win Nebraska (he's strong in western "white" but not redneck states, see CO, KS, etc.)
He'll easily win LA (AA vote)
He'll easily win Washington (California was an anomoly, another week or 2 and he would have won it).
Maine, DC, Maryland, Virginia are all gimmes (momentum wins)

Really the only two states he has to worry about are Texas (heavy redneck + heavy hispanic population) and Ohio. I think he'll pull off Ohio because it's more like Indiana...and has a broad "moderate" base which he is attracting.

A tie on Super Tuesday = Win for obama.

 

[piasabird]

These references of Blacks and the Democratic Party seem a bit racist to me. What I cant understand is why Michigan and Florida and the Deocratic Primary voting system and party could not have come to some kind of compromise instead of this giant problem they have created. Dont they even care about the people in Michigan and Florida? Isnt the Democratic party worried about a backlash against it? What if these people feel disenfranchised and decide not to vote for democrats in the General Election. Can the Democratic party afford that?

It seems like people like Pelosi and others are good at making problems out of nothing and not very good at coming up with real-world solutions. Everything is a problem, and everything is someone elses faut to these Left-Wing Eletists.

 

[Nitemare]

Originally posted by: piasabird
These references of Blacks and the Democratic Party seem a bit racist to me. What I cant understand is why Michigan and Florida and the Deocratic Primary voting system and party could not have come to some kind of compromise instead of this giant problem they have created. Dont they even care about the people in Michigan and Florida? Isnt the Democratic party worried about a backlash against it? What if these people feel disenfranchised and decide not to vote for democrats in the General Election. Can the Democratic party afford that?

It seems like people like Pelosi and others are good at making problems out of nothing and not very good at coming up with real-world solutions. Everything is a problem, and everything is someone elses faut to these Left-Wing Eletists.

It's a known fact that 90% of democrats always vote democrat, cracist or not.

Michigan and Florida moved up their primaries so they thought they would actually matter and the DNC stripped them of their votes. If the DNC really cared about your opinion they wouldn't have 800+ Super delegates to decide who their representative was. Common sense would tell the delegates to vote the way their state does and some might actually listen, but asking for an elected official with a smidgen of common sense is asking for alot...

 

[Lemon law]

Who know, could play out many ways. But I still think Obama is the stronger candidate with the fewest negatives.

The voters will still decide and ST was a dead even split. If Obama can win all the remaining February primaries with Hillary funding raising remaining short, Obama may be unstoppable.

But time will tell.

 

[Pabster]

He certainly appears unstoppable now. But, as we've learned in the past, never discount the Clinton machine.

 

[ProfJohn]

If they try to get the Florida and Michigan delegates seated in order to push Hillary over the top I think the lawsuits will fly.

The Democrat Party will come undone in a way similar to what happened in 1968.

I think such a fight could really hurt their chances in the falls since the focus post convention will be the fight the Democrats had instead of ?look at how great our candidate is.?

Plus imagine the impact such a fight would have down ticket as supporters of Hillary and Obama fight it out.

 

[Farang]

I think ultimately what will happen is the majority of superdelegates will begin supporting one candidate that is perceived to have momentum. The party will begin to recognize the problem of Michigan and Florida and seek to avoid it. I do agree if they pick Clinton it presents more of a problem than if they pick Obama, either way we can probably all agree the Democrat primary system is a mess. Really what they should do is get all of the superdelegates together to vote for whoever wins the national popular vote. Not going to happen but the only way I see of this ending peacefully.

 

[nageov3t]

Obama is kind of the establishment front runner by this point.

if he goes into the convention with a lead, I think the super delegates will turn his way since they're not formally committed.

the real question is going to be how much of a shit fit FL and MI might throw if Hillary only loses because their delegates aren't seated. could be grim for the democrats if liberals in those states protest and don't show up to the polls in Nov.

 

[nonameo]

Originally posted by: loki8481
Obama is kind of the establishment front runner by this point.

if he goes into the convention with a lead, I think the super delegates will turn his way since they're not formally committed.

the real question is going to be how much of a shit fit FL and MI might throw if Hillary only loses because their delegates aren't seated. could be grim for the democrats if liberals in those states protest and don't show up to the polls in Nov.

Yeah, but if they're counted, it's not fair to Obama, as he pulled his name off the ballot(??? I think?) in one of the states, under the impression that it would get no delegates.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: nonameo

Originally posted by: loki8481
Obama is kind of the establishment front runner by this point.

if he goes into the convention with a lead, I think the super delegates will turn his way since they're not formally committed.

the real question is going to be how much of a shit fit FL and MI might throw if Hillary only loses because their delegates aren't seated. could be grim for the democrats if liberals in those states protest and don't show up to the polls in Nov.

Yeah, but if they're counted, it's not fair to Obama, as he pulled his name off the ballot(??? I think?) in one of the states, under the impression that it would get no delegates.

he voluntarily pulled his name off the ballot in Michigan... it was his choice.

 

[Mxylplyx]

It would be rather amusing to see democrats accusing democrats of stealing an election.

 

[Starbuck1975]

he voluntarily pulled his name off the ballot in Michigan... it was his choice.

Michigan and Florida chose to hold their primaries early despite warnings and reprimands from the DNC...it was their choice.

It would be rather amusing to see democrats accusing democrats of stealing an election.

Only way Clinton can take the nomination at this point...legal maneuvering and changing the rules when they don't work in your favor...hmmm, which candidate have we seen this with before?

I hope Edwards and Gore drop the endorsement bomb and back Obama to end this whole discussion.

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
If they try to get the Florida and Michigan delegates seated in order to push Hillary over the top I think the lawsuits will fly.

The Democrat Party will come undone in a way similar to what happened in 1968.

I think such a fight could really hurt their chances in the falls since the focus post convention will be the fight the Democrats had instead of ?look at how great our candidate is.?

Plus imagine the impact such a fight would have down ticket as supporters of Hillary and Obama fight it out.

Exactly which person is going to stand up and sue to prevent FL/MI from being counted? Somehow I don't think anyone affiliated with Obama would do it. I strongly doubt anyone in the democratic party would even do it. And a republican wouldn't have any standing. I know you'd love to see the dems collapse and all, but they are going to have this settled way before August.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Starbuck1975

I hope Edwards and Gore drop the endorsement bomb and back Obama to end this whole discussion.

because who better to endorse you than even more people who lost the presidential race

 

[Jaskalas]

Originally posted by: alchemize
A tie on Super Tuesday = Win for obama.

I hope so. Voting for Obama would be much more easier.

 

[nageov3t]

well, good news... the dnc invoked the Zell Miller Rule and Joe Lieberman is no longer a super delegate

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: Starbuck1975

I hope Edwards and Gore drop the endorsement bomb and back Obama to end this whole discussion.

because who better to endorse you than even more people who lost the presidential race

The only reason Ted Kennedy and other experienced politicians' endorsement of Obama would have any resonance with people (and it is not apparent that it has had any) is if it helped in an area they had doubts about. People don't say "Oh, Kennedy endorsed Obama, I like Kennedy, so I'll vote Obama." People DO think "Obama doesn't seem to have much experience, yet many long time Senators have endorsed him, so perhaps they feel he has enough experience for the job, so I'll consider that." Exactly what weakness of Obama's do Edwards and Gore address?

 

[yowolabi]

I've been pondering the question posed by the OP for a few days now. I think it's very likely that this thing will go to the convention with Obama having a slim lead not counting superdelegates, exactly the scenario that he proposes.

I strongly believe that if superdelegates and/or Michigan-Florida decide this thing for Clinton, that's the only scenario that will put a Republican in the white house. Many independents will go towards McCain who is already strong with independents to start with. I don't think Black voters will vote Republican in significant numbers, but a lot more of them will surely stay home along with other core Democratic voters that were strongly behind Obama.

This is a nightmare scenario. This is what the Democrats get for ignoring the issue of superdelegates simply because it hasn't mattered for so long. There will have to be some kind of compromise if the situation plays out like described above. Like someone else mentioned, the best solution is for superdelegates to either vote the way their states voted, or all vote for candidate with the most regular delegates. I also pondered whether the compromise might include these two being a joint ticket. That might not work because neither of them want to be vice president, especially with the presidency within grasp.

 

[nageov3t]

Dean said today that if there's no clear nominee, he's going to get involved, sit everyone down at a table, and "work something out."

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: loki8481
Dean said today that if there's no clear nominee, he's going to get involved, sit everyone down at a table, and "work something out."

Ah, he's gonna use the SCREAM to straighten it out. :laugh:

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: loki8481
Dean said today that if there's no clear nominee, he's going to get involved, sit everyone down at a table, and "work something out."

Ah, he's gonna use the SCREAM to straighten it out. :laugh:

my guess is a Hillbama ticket with roshambo to figure out who's on top

 

[Mxylplyx]

Originally posted by: loki8481
Dean said today that if there's no clear nominee, he's going to get involved, sit everyone down at a table, and "work something out."

I'd love to be a fly on the wall to see someone tell a typical egocentric politician running for president that they should bow out for the sake of the party. Being president is the endgame...the pinnacle of a political career. Their loyalty to their party is a very, very distant second to their personal goal of achieving that office.