Houthis Blow Up Oil Tanker in the Red Sea

[Perknose]

Semi-paywall FT link.

150,000 tons of crude spilling out could be the start of a "severe ecological disaster."

"US state department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement on Saturday: “The Houthis have made clear they are willing to destroy the fishing industry and regional ecosystems that Yemenis and other communities in the region rely on for their livelihoods.

”“The Houthis’ continued attacks threaten to spill a million barrels of oil into the Red Sea, an amount four times the size of the Exxon Valdez disaster,” Miller said."

^^^ Here's the thing. As with Hamas, a group willing to hurt their own people cannot reasonably be defeated militarily unless you try to eradicate them totally, which simply cannot be done, as we see in Gaza.

So, wtf to do?

 

[brycejones]

Semi-paywall FT link.

150,000 tons of crude spilling out could be the start of a "severe ecological disaster."

"US state department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement on Saturday: “The Houthis have made clear they are willing to destroy the fishing industry and regional ecosystems that Yemenis and other communities in the region rely on for their livelihoods.

”“The Houthis’ continued attacks threaten to spill a million barrels of oil into the Red Sea, an amount four times the size of the Exxon Valdez disaster,” Miller said."

^^^ Here's the thing. As with Hamas, a group willing to hurt their own people cannot reasonably be defeated militarily unless you try to eradicate them totally, which simply cannot be done, as we see in Gaza.

So, wtf to do?

Implement a convoy system?

 

[Fanatical Meat]

I like to keep things dumb and it will sound cruel but it’s not and it is very difficult or will take a long time.
Hold them accountable for their decisions.
People who live in the area tolerate nut jobs that collect missiles to be fired at other locations, they need to be accountable for that. Accountability in the presented problem is the Ocean doesn’t get cleaned up due to misses being fired. They need to deal with that mess themselves which likely mean fewer and more contaminated fish.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Implement a convoy system?

Opposite. Stop all shipping traffic through the area.

When enough people lose enough money, things will change.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

I like to keep things dumb and it will sound cruel but it’s not and it is very difficult or will take a long time.
Hold them accountable for their decisions.
People who live in the area tolerate nut jobs that collect missiles to be fired at other locations, they need to be accountable for that. Accountability in the presented problem is the Ocean doesn’t get cleaned up due to misses being fired. They need to deal with that mess themselves which likely mean fewer and more contaminated fish.

How do you intend to do that? As far as I know the houthis don't have a department of fish and wildlife.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

How do you intend to do that? As far as I know the houthis don't have a department of fish and wildlife.

That’s the problem, they have no care and no skin in the game. Local people do.

 

[kage69]

People going hungry and losing the ability to support their families will fill that role, the problem is it can take awhile and is less effective with regimes that don't give a shit about their own people.

I agree on the accountability, my view of it is a bit more narrow in this case though. Either Tehran tells them to stop, or we kill the people able to use the boats, drones and missiles. It's pretty clear Netanyahu is not interested in pausing his genocide against "the Amalekites" so the Houthi will keep doing this.



I should mention that most muslims enraged over Israel wiping out Palestinian women and children in Gaza don't really care about the effects of an oil spill.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

People going hungry and losing the ability to support their families will fill that role, the problem is it can take awhile and is less effective with regimes that don't give a shit about their own people.

I agree on the accountability, my view of it is a bit more narrow in this case though. Either Tehran tells them to stop, or we kill the people able to use the boats, drones and missiles. It's pretty clear Netanyahu is not interested in pausing his genocide against "the Amalekites" so the Houthi will keep doing this.



I should mention that muslims enraged over Israel wiping out Palestinian women and children in Gaza don't really care about the effects of an oil spill.

Good summary and I do not know enough about the area to know a true plan.
As you said accountability needs to be in play always.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

As far as an oil spill goes, and I've asked this before,, how much oil went into the oceans during the world wars with all the ships sunk and aircraft downed? What overall effect did it have during the years after?

 

[Fanatical Meat]

As far as an oil spill goes, and I've asked this before,, how much oil went into the oceans during the world wars with all the ships sunk and aircraft downed? What overall effect did it have during the years after?

I think those were primarily a good distance from the coast and the ocean is much deeper/spread out from the coastline. Not sure if they are comparable in this situation.

 

[Indus]

So, wtf to do?

Every civilization has to negotiate with its own values in order to survive or it finds itself wiped out by people that were never going to be our allies or someone we can deal with.

You know where I stand.

 

[cytg111]

And there it is.
Decline of globalization.

That’s the problem, they have no care and no skin in the game. Local people do.

Sounds like a recipe for another Palestine

 

[cytg111]

So, wtf to do?

So either you buddy up with a reginal force that will dominate and submit these proto civilizations, supply them with superior weapons and technology. Or you dont move your shit through their neighborhood and remove dependence on said goods.

 

[Indus]

And there it is.
Decline of globalization.

Sounds like a recipe for another Palestine

There was a time before MBS I used to refer to Saudi Arabia as Saudi America and our 51st state.

 

[Meghan54]

As far as an oil spill goes, and I've asked this before,, how much oil went into the oceans during the world wars with all the ships sunk and aircraft downed? What overall effect did it have during the years after?

In most instances, oil burned since it was concentrated in one spot. And then dilution effect since most siblings were out at sea in areas without effective air cover.

I’ve read something like 330 or so oil tankers were lost in WW2, counting both theaters…Atlantic and Pacific.

Typical oil tanker capacity back then was ~140,000 bbls.

The LR1, Long Range 1…one of the most common tanker sizes, carry’s up to 550,000 bbls crude.

A VLCC, Very Large Crude Carrier, can carry up to 2.2 million bbls.

And there were absolutely zero studies done at the time to see what impact the war was having on aquatic systems/environment. So to say there was none because no one reported it is nonsense.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

And there it is.
Decline of globalization.

Sounds like a recipe for another Palestine

Yup and Palestinians need to learn how to be accountable. That is a big part of the continual problems in the area. Nobody honors agreements.

 

[cytg111]

Yup and Palestinians need to learn how to be accountable. That is a big part of the continual problems in the area. Nobody honors agreements.

So a few more whips and you think they'll finally get the message and boot Hamas out of the remaining rubble? .

I think we have witnessed enough iterations of this methodology to conclude this is not how human beings work.

edit:
As pointed out here

How do you intend to do that? As far as I know the houthis don't have a department of fish and wildlife.

You cant expect these people to act like a uniform body if they are indeed not united. Us up here in the west are united.
We're united by the common fabric of our society that holds everything we know and understand together, democracy, elections, institutions. You cant take our way of reasoning on these things and put them on a radically different social structure. They're just not there yet. Message not understood.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

So a few more whips and you think they'll finally get the message and boot Hamas out of the remaining rubble? .

I think we have witnessed enough iterations of this methodology to conclude this is not how human beings work.

Okay so we keep doing what’s been done since the 60s? Take years hammering out an agreement which neither side honors after 3 to 8 years.
I know if my neighbor was collecting rockets to fire into a neighboring town, I would have to say something otherwise I will be held accountable too. This doesn’t mean everyone in Palestine is guilty, it doesn’t mean they all need to be killed it does mean they need to speak up when something is going on.

 

[Brainonska511]

Opposite. Stop all shipping traffic through the area.

When enough people lose enough money, things will change.

Stopping all traffic through that area is going to just drive up the costs of essentials in East Asia. Tons of basics for growing crops are shipped through the Red Sea, and rerouting to around the Cape is going to mean longer transit and more fuel burned.

The only people losing money is the shippers and the recipients of those shipments. It's not like Yemen and the Houthis are collecting tolls.

 

[brycejones]

Opposite. Stop all shipping traffic through the area.

When enough people lose enough money, things will change.

I'm sorry to laugh at this, but you seem to mistake that Iran and the Houthis have an economic stake here. They DGAF. In fact you're giving them exactly what they want.

 

[cytg111]

Okay so we keep doing what’s been done since the 60s? Take years hammering out an agreement which neither side honors after 3 to 8 years.
I know if my neighbor was collecting rockets to fire into a neighboring town, I would have to say something otherwise I will be held accountable too. This doesn’t mean everyone in Palestine is guilty, it doesn’t mean they all need to be killed it does mean they need to speak up when something is going on.

But you're doing it again. Taking your(mine) way of thinking and applying it to a place that is at all not like ours.

My suggestion? America actually had a doctrine that worked in Afghanistan, there was a multitude of reasons why the mission failed beyond that, but this worked: Hearts and minds.

Winning hearts and minds: U.S. challenges in Afghanistan

"The only safe place is where you are standing." This is how Brian Cracchiola described the conditions faced by U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan during his talk Wednesday entitled, "Unraveling the Gordian Knot: The Counterinsurgency Training Center-Afghanistan (CTC-A)."

www.llnl.gov

 

[Indus]

But you're doing it again. Taking your(mine) way of thinking and applying it to a place that is at all not like ours.

My suggestion? America actually had a doctrine that worked in Afghanistan, there was a multitude of reasons why the mission failed beyond that, but this worked: Hearts and minds.

Winning hearts and minds: U.S. challenges in Afghanistan

"The only safe place is where you are standing." This is how Brian Cracchiola described the conditions faced by U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan during his talk Wednesday entitled, "Unraveling the Gordian Knot: The Counterinsurgency Training Center-Afghanistan (CTC-A)."

www.llnl.gov

Sadly the only success of changing hearts and minds I've seen in my life is if you wanna change hearts and minds.. do what the Mexican cartels do.. round up some low level criminals and low lives drug dealers.. execute/ decapitate/ disembowel/ impale/ hang em.

Then everyone knows not to travel there.. hearts and minds changed!

A lot easier than spending a trillion dollars.

And I was someone who has travelled the world extensively and wanted to go to Mexico but decided it's not safe.. Costa Rica, Colombia, Peru were a lot safer in comparison and I'm still here.. so maybe I made the right judgment call???

 

[Fanatical Meat]

But you're doing it again. Taking your(mine) way of thinking and applying it to a place that is at all not like ours.

My suggestion? America actually had a doctrine that worked in Afghanistan, there was a multitude of reasons why the mission failed beyond that, but this worked: Hearts and minds.

Winning hearts and minds: U.S. challenges in Afghanistan

"The only safe place is where you are standing." This is how Brian Cracchiola described the conditions faced by U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan during his talk Wednesday entitled, "Unraveling the Gordian Knot: The Counterinsurgency Training Center-Afghanistan (CTC-A)."

www.llnl.gov

Without reading the link I suspect what it is. Basically show stability and success, spread stability & success.
Just saying it’s hard to do that when there are too many siphoning off money or general corruption like tolerating someone who is attacking Civilians and there is no accountability to doing so.

 

[cytg111]

Without reading the link I suspect what it is. Basically show stability and success, spread stability & success.
Just saying it’s hard to do that when there are too many siphoning off money or general corruption like tolerating someone who is attacking Civilians and there is no accountability to doing so.

Nah its about what @Indus hints at above, how much does it cost? You'd have to go in, preferable on an invite, setup shop and security and begin building infrastructure in collab with the locals. Almost like missionaries of the past.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

"And there were absolutely zero studies done at the time to see what impact the war was having on aquatic systems/environment. So to say there was none because no one reported it is nonsense."

If you don't count them, they don't count. Sounds like the 'Pubs in election offices.

"Stopping all traffic through that area is going to just drive up the costs of essentials in East Asia. Tons of basics for growing crops are shipped through the Red Sea, and rerouting to around the Cape is going to mean longer transit and more fuel burned.

The only people losing money is the shippers and the recipients of those shipments. "


Exactly. When the big mioney people that own the ships and the cargo start losing enough, they'll do something about it. Let them and the South Asians work it out.