History suggests that McCain may get all the undecideds

[ProfJohn]

Below are two separate articles that both suggest McCain may get all the undecided voters.

Theory 1: With all his spending, media coverage, magazine covers, editorial support etc etc if you haven't decided to vote for Obama by now you will never decide to vote for Obama.

Backing this up is the idea that Obama is the 'socially acceptable' candidate and thus people may not say they favor McCain because they want to appear 'acceptable.'

Theory two: In a black v. white race what the black candidate gets at the polls is what they get on election day. This is based on data from 2006. In every case the black candidate came very close to his preelection poll total and the white picked up nearly all the undecideds.

If this turns out to be true next week then any state in which Obama is not over 50% could end up going for McCain and that would make for a very close election.

I suggest that everyone read both articles because they provide a lot of information about the above ideas.
link 1
link 2

 

[Descartes]

I really, really can't wait for this election to be over. Doesn't this constant hypothetical nonsense just drive you all insane?

 

[StageLeft]

I wouldn't count on it. The only pole that shows McCain has a chance in a cold hell is the one Palin is dancing on in his head.

 

[fskimospy]

I suggest you go over to fivethirtyeight.com and look at the professional statistician there rip that article to shreds.

 

[nageov3t]

it's ok, Prof... it's time to move onto the acceptance stage of grieving and start thinking about 2010 /hug

 

[Painman]

IOW, ProfJohn's last hope resides within his faith in this country's innate racism.

(Oh, No, did I just play the Race Card??!?).

 

[jpeyton]

Desperation never smelled so sweet.

It has been a pleasure watching you GOP hacks run around every which way in these final days before the election. Truly.

:laugh:

 

[bdude]

I can't wait.

 

[trmiv]

There's a good response to the Salon article here titled "Bradley Effect? Or Elephant Effect?"

 

[sammyunltd]

PJ is right. We don't know for sure if people are really honest when they say they are going to vote for Obama. This might just be a sympathy vote or just a vote to avoid being called racist or whatev.

 

[bdude]

Originally posted by: sammyunltd
PJ is right. We don't know for sure if people are really honest when they say they are going to vote for Obama. This might just be a sympathy vote or just a vote to avoid being called racist or whatev.

Keep telling yourself that.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Prof. just look at your candidate John McCain. Does he look like a man who's confident he's going to win?

What I see is a man that feels defeated. You can see it in his body language, his tone, and his lack of energy.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Originally posted by: sammyunltd
PJ is right. We don't know for sure if people are really honest when they say they are going to vote for Obama. This might just be a sympathy vote or just a vote to avoid being called racist or whatev.

Why would they do that? Most of these polling calls are totally automated, there is no pressure whatsoever to admit you like McCain over Obama. That argument makes no sense.

 

[sammyunltd]

Originally posted by: OneOfTheseDays

Originally posted by: sammyunltd
PJ is right. We don't know for sure if people are really honest when they say they are going to vote for Obama. This might just be a sympathy vote or just a vote to avoid being called racist or whatev.

Why would they do that? Most of these polling calls are totally automated, there is no pressure whatsoever to admit you like McCain over Obama. That argument makes no sense.

Wierd. I'm studying Statistics at the moment and this sort of behavior by respondents is a huge source of bias.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: sammyunltd

Originally posted by: OneOfTheseDays

Originally posted by: sammyunltd
PJ is right. We don't know for sure if people are really honest when they say they are going to vote for Obama. This might just be a sympathy vote or just a vote to avoid being called racist or whatev.

Why would they do that? Most of these polling calls are totally automated, there is no pressure whatsoever to admit you like McCain over Obama. That argument makes no sense.

Wierd. I'm studying Statistics at the moment and this sort of behavior by respondents is a huge source of bias.

It most certainly can be, the point is that it does not mean that it WILL be. The polls cited in the articles PJ supplied were cherry picked to support the conclusion. There were a large number of other polls that correctly predicted the electoral outcomes it cites.

In a nutshell they picked some outlier polls and then tried to make the argument that America is racist because the electoral result didn't conform to the outlier.

 

[ayabe]

I agree with PJ.

Currently there are two undecideds in the country, and McCain will get them.

 

[Robor]

Originally posted by: OneOfTheseDays
Prof. just look at your candidate John McCain. Does he look like a man who's confident he's going to win?

What I see is a man that feels defeated. You can see it in his body language, his tone, and his lack of energy.

Don't mean to be non-PC but that's war injuries and old age you see. IMO he's too old to hold the position.

 

[Dari]

Originally posted by: sammyunltd
PJ is right. We don't know for sure if people are really honest when they say they are going to vote for Obama. This might just be a sympathy vote or just a vote to avoid being called racist or whatev.

Your point is odd considering people that are racist have plenty of excuses to give for not voting for Obama.

 

[Engineer]

After 2000 and 2004, I won't say a damn word or make a prediction until after the damn thing is over. Talking to people at work today gave me the idea that the same ole ideals are in place and votes still occur on them. Nothing, and I mean nothing would suprise me including a McCain landslide.

 

[davestar]

Originally posted by: trmiv
There's a good response to the Salon article here titled "Bradley Effect? Or Elephant Effect?"

Here's the main point of the article:

The year 2006, as you may recall, was a very one for Republicans. Democratic candidates overperformed their poll in a significant majority of competitive races around the country.

In fact, there were other races going on at the same time in Maryland and Ohio, both of which involved two white candidates. In Maryland, there was also a race for Governor; the Democrat, Martin O'Malley, was projected by the RCP average to defeat the Republican, Robert Ehrlich, by 1.3 points. In fact, O'Malley won by 6.5 points. In Ohio, meanwhile, the Democratic candidate for Senate, Sherrod Brown, was projected by RCP to defeat the Republican, Mike DeWine, by 10.0 points. In fact, Brown won by 12.3 points.

So, it wasn't just black Republicans who were undeperforming their polls; it was white Republicans too (likewise with Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania): not a 'Bradley Effect' so much as an 'Elephant Effect'.

so while the articles in the OP are essentially disproved here, i'd like to at least congratulate ProfJohn in not injecting pointless inflammatory commentary to his OP. this is certainly a topic worth considering.

 

[NoStateofMind]

You mean the undecided voters CNN and Fox show as polling numbers? Those are independents, Green party, libertarian voters. Not McCain wannabe's. Forget it ProJo, the reach you made here is impossible.

 

[GTKeeper]

Oh look its PJ and his neocon propaganda! You put conservatives to shame PJ.

 

[NoStateofMind]

Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Oh look its PJ and his neocon propaganda! You put conservatives to shame PJ.

Neocon and conservatives are in no way related to each other.

 

[techs]

It is utterly amazing that ProfJohn is the last person in this forum to have heard of the Wilder effect.
He literally had to be hiding his head in the ground not to have heard of it by now.

That being said, I wonder if the "belief" in the Wilder effect is generational? As a 52 year old I DO believe in the racism that exists in this country, and I DO believe that some of the people who respond to the pollsters are saying they will vote for Obama, but when it comes time to pull the lever, they won't vote for a black man.

Maybe that comes from living in a time when people were more openly racist and proud of it.

I think the race is thisclose. I think the right wing Republican base will absolutely vote in record numbers. And I believe the youth vote will disappoint as it has in every election.
It's going to be a close one, folks.

 

[winnar111]

Frankly, it doesn't matter if he does. He'll still lose.