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Hillary Clinton wins Dixville Notch midnight vote 2 to 1

spacejamz said:
Care to comment on the Millsfield results???
Click to expand...
Sure...

How about some Wang for everyone? 🙂

Final Projections: Clinton 323 EV, 51 Democratic Senate seats, GOP House

The House never was in play but Sam projects Dem to be +8 there...

Sounds good so far, now to see it happen!
 
DrDoug said:
Sure...

How about some Wang for everyone? 🙂

Final Projections: Clinton 323 EV, 51 Democratic Senate seats, GOP House

The House never was in play but Sam projects Dem to be +8 there...

Sounds good so far, now to see it happen!
Click to expand...

lol @ this Sam Wang guy suddenly peaking huge on Google Trends. Let me guess, you read that HuffPo piece about how Nate Silver is an evil Trump shill for only giving Clinton ~60-70% odds, so this is the new favorite?
 
Hillary will win and there will be nonsense about how the country gave her a mandate by their support. Well no. Like her opponent, fewer people like her than would rather have another but that's not how the system worked. Partisans polishing pigs, putting paint on their lips and thinking they have won. Well they did, no matter if Trump or Hillary and they should win- as an entry in a 4H livestock competition. As Presidents? As a whole, no we don't want either and the favorability ratings show it.

Oh well, maybe my dog will make a strong showing. Better than pigs.
 
HamburgerBoy said:
lol @ this Sam Wang guy suddenly peaking huge on Google Trends. Let me guess, you read that HuffPo piece about how Nate Silver is an evil Trump shill for only giving Clinton ~60-70% odds, so this is the new favorite?
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Nope, I've been following PEC since 2008 and HuffPo isn't even on my radar for places to read. Nate Silver is commercial now, not irrelevant but now a part of the 'horse race' mindset. Sam's not in it for clicks and his methods are open to scrutiny, Nate's aren't.


When it comes to you and "assumptions", the first three letters of that word come through loud and clear.
 
HamburgerBoy said:
lol @ this Sam Wang guy suddenly peaking huge on Google Trends. Let me guess, you read that HuffPo piece about how Nate Silver is an evil Trump shill for only giving Clinton ~60-70% odds, so this is the new favorite?
Click to expand...

That HuffPo piece was stupid but there's a genuine break between 538 and basically all other models in that he's predicting much, much greater volatility. As Silver himself said if we get either a Clinton landslide or a Trump win 538 is vindicated. If we get midrange results he was wrong.

I think if nothing else in my humble opinion he probably needs to turn down the dials on how sensitive his model is to shifts in polls considering how wildly it's predictions have fluctuated over the months.
 
skyking said:
mandate? Landslide? LOLno. Lucky to get people to turn out in this yuuge negative popularity contest.
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There can't be a mandate, but we'll hear it anyway. Putting people up who are the most unpopular since data has been collected forbids it.

Landslide depends on how one chooses to define it, popular or electoral vote. Whoever wins will pick the one which looks most favorable. The system acts as a filter to bias towards certain candidates. In the case of Trump (and I have to hand this to him), he parasitized the Republican system by mimicry and took it over. By the time the mainstream came to realize it was too late. The host was terminally infected.

The DNC has demonstrated that it had a bias towards Hillary, and certainly she is the most Wall Street friendly, having said how she will reel them but accumulating a fortune by walking a path for personal gain by being one of "them", more than Trump.

In any case if Hillary wins it's because of Trump and vice versa. The majority have been found to view both disfavorably.

Ah well, my main concern is mostly if the nut or the hawk wins and their propensity to violence via warfare and authoritarianism. Hopefully we won't have a draft for more fodder, but either party will support their candidate no matter what. Not likely, but a possibility.
 
brycejones said:
Your butt hurt is going to be epic.
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I just voted for the first time since I was 28, knowing full well that it's meaningless not only because of math but also because I live in New York. My hope is that if Trump is so incredibly vile that he makes someone like me vote that there are lots of people that feel the same way.

As for 'mandate', that's silly anyway. GWB lost the popular vote and behaved as if he had a mandate and Obama won a landslide in 2008 and republicans pretended it never happened. Elected officials don't care about that sort of thing and Clinton will face scorched earth opposition even if she wins 538 to 0. That's the result of a radicalized Conservative party.

Ironically the more republicans lose the more radical their party becomes as generally the moderates are in the more competitive districts.
 
Once Hillary wins and walks out there for the first time as president elect, a woman, making history, people will forget why they hated Hillary and just be proud they were part of History.
Well, most people....

Just wait and see.
The sound of history being made will drown out Hillary, Trump, politics, and all else.
At least for the night.

Once Hillary is declared winner, the first woman president, it would be insulting to focus on Donald Trump or his licking his wounds.
The focus will be with history being made.
Trump will be long forgotten come Wednesday morning..
 
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DrDoug said:
Sure...

How about some Wang for everyone? 🙂

Final Projections: Clinton 323 EV, 51 Democratic Senate seats, GOP House

The House never was in play but Sam projects Dem to be +8 there...

Sounds good so far, now to see it happen!
Click to expand...
Sure hope the Senate actually goes Dem. Going to need it to kill probably most of what comes out of the House. It would be a really nice fantasy, to see a bipartisan effort to really fix the ACA. Not possible as long as the GOP holds the house.
 
Mitt Romney is an absolute idiot for running against an incumbent in Obama. He'd have had this election by probably 65% popular vote, 400+ electoral college.
 
momeNt said:
He absolutely would have. Never once did Trump put the Mormons in his crosshairs.
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He would have lost catastrophically. Tell me one thing that Mitt Romney had that wasn't possessed and ignored by one of Trump's rivals, Jeb Bush in particular. Mormons would have been useful in about two states, Utah and to a much lesser degree California.

Even more telling is when Romney came out during the primary against Trump and basically threw the book at him nobody cared.
 
That Trump has any chance at all for winning this election tells me how absurd, how damaged and how fantastically deranged the GOP has become from the very top of its leadership to the very bottom of their cellars where their base of loonies reside.

For the fact that their radicalized base have the ability to determine the fate of the party is alarming enough, but we now have irrefutable evidence in the unfolding voting trends we're witnessing of how the majority of moderates in the party have buckled under and have become willing enough to hitch a ride on the crazy train that the base of the party is in total control of.

I mean, how far off from reality must the party drift off into before they are compelled to get back on track? The nation needs a healthy, vibrant Repub Party to maintain the balance required to keep the nation itself healthy and vibrant.

I hope this situation in which a guy like Trump of all people, have become their top pick, their best hope for taking back the White House can be mitigated by having the GOP find their way out of the self-destructive rut they're now mired in.
 
fskimospy said:
He would have lost catastrophically. Tell me one thing that Mitt Romney had that wasn't possessed and ignored by one of Trump's rivals, Jeb Bush in particular. Mormons would have been useful in about two states, Utah and to a much lesser degree California.

Even more telling is when Romney came out during the primary against Trump and basically threw the book at him nobody cared.
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Well, he wasn't a Bush, for one thing: yuuge deal, that.

He's also a competent, intelligent campaigner and has real (generally positive) experience as Governor. Bush didn't have any of that. The one thing Bush had that Romney didn't was an exclamation mark.
 
zinfamous said:
Well, he wasn't a Bush, for one thing: yuuge deal, that.

He's also a competent, intelligent campaigner and has real (generally positive) experience as Governor. Bush didn't have any of that. The one thing Bush had that Romney didn't was an exclamation mark.
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The Republican primary electorate had access to a competent, intelligent campaigner with real, generally positive experiences as governor. He won exactly one state, his own.
 
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