Hezbollah head, Nasrallah, didn't forsee a war

fallenangel99

Golden Member
Aug 8, 2001
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The 2 soldiers are still captive even though their release was part of the truce. I'm surprised Israel is not pushing for their release either via the U.N or by force. And Nasrallah doesn't want to start round 2 either.


Hezbollah head didn't foresee such a war

BEIRUT, Lebanon - Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah said in a TV interview aired Sunday that he would not have ordered the capture of two Israeli soldiers if he had known it would lead to such a war.
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Hezbollah guerrillas killed three Israeli soldiers and seized two more in a cross-border raid July 12, which sparked 34 days of fighting that ended Aug. 14. Five other Israeli soldiers were killed as they pursued the militants back into Lebanon.

"We did not think, even 1 percent, that the capture would lead to a war at this time and of this magnitude. You ask me, if I had known on July 11 ... that the operation would lead to such a war, would I do it? I say no, absolutely not," he said in an interview with Lebanon's New TV station.

Nasrallah also said the
United Nations and Italy already had initiated "contacts" about beginning negotiations on a prisoner swap.

Israeli officials have been refusing to comment on the record about the prospects of a prisoner exchange, citing the extreme sensitivity of the issue.

But military officials said earlier this month that
Israel is holding 13 Hezbollah prisoners and the bodies of dozens of guerrillas that it could swap for the two captive soldiers, but would not include any Palestinian prisoners in such a deal.

"The Israelis have acknowledged that this (issue) is headed for negotiations and a (prisoners) exchange," he said. "Contacts recently began for negotiations."

He said Italy and the United Nations had made contacts to help mediate a prisoner swap with Israel, but did not specify whether they had contacted Hezbollah directly.

"The Italians seem to be getting close and are trying to get into the subject. The United Nations is interested," Nasrallah said.

The guerrilla leader did not specify in which capacity Italy had expressed interest ? on its own or on Israel's behalf.

Nasrallah said Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri was in charge of the negotiations.

He added that the subject would be discussed during U.N. Secretary-General
Kofi Annan's visit to Beirut on Monday. He said "some contacts" had been made to arrange a meeting between him and Annan, but that it was unlikely for security reasons. Nasrallah went into hiding on the first day of the war and his whereabouts are unknown.

He said in the interview Sunday that he had no doubt that the Israelis "would not hesitate" to kill him if they knew where he was hiding.

Nasrallah also said he did not believe a second bout of fighting would break out with Israel. "The current Israeli situation, and the available givens tell us that we are not heading to another round," he said.
 

ntdz

Diamond Member
Aug 5, 2004
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He's not a very good leader if he didn't forsee it...you don't f*ck with Israel and expect to get away with it.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
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You cannot forsee everything---but we also have to remember that the Israelie incursion into Lebanon was a joint Isralie US plan according to Symour Hersh--who has excellent sources high up into the US Gov. And the plan was just awiting a trigger--an incident that the kidnapping of the two soldiers provided.---while the troops and supplies were already in place just waiting for the order to start rolling.

But the mission that was supposed to roll up Hezbollah in all of Lebanon was super-surprised as the Israelies did not expect to meet that kind of strong opposition or weaponry. And soon bogged down after making no real progress.

I think both sides were suprised and welcome the cease fire as a chance to regroup, reassess, and resupply.

But my take is one side or the other will, at a time of their choosing, decide they want a rematch. Meanwhile Hezbollah has lived to tell of F*cking with Israel. But the most glaring Israelie failure is in the area of intel.
 
Aug 14, 2001
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Originally posted by: Lemon law
You cannot forsee everything---but we also have to remember that the Israelie incursion into Lebanon was a joint Isralie US plan according to Symour Hersh--who has excellent sources high up into the US Gov.

That is nonsense. It was actually planned by Xenu.
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
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Originally posted by: Lemon law
You cannot forsee everything---but we also have to remember that the Israelie incursion into Lebanon was a joint Isralie US plan according to Symour Hersh--who has excellent sources high up into the US Gov.

Would you care to source this information?
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
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The truth is slowly starting to come out that Hezbollah actually lost this war, and lost it bad.

Besides lossing 500 fighters and many of its missiles they are lossing support in the Arab world. This is especially a problem for them in Lebanon where almost everyone is pissed off at Hezbollah for bringing such vast destruction on that country.

For all the people who complain that Israel uses "colective punishment" it may turn out this time that the tactic worked by turning the people of Lebanon against Hezbollah.


Hezbollah Didn't Win

Arab writers are beginning to lift the veil on what really happened in Lebanon.
http://opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110008847
 

SamurAchzar

Platinum Member
Feb 15, 2006
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So Arabs weren't as stupid as some like to portray here. Some people again and again claimed that the destruction reined by Israel will increase the public support of Hizbullah, now it seems like they are afraid to lose it.

Here's a good article:
Text

Don't be fooled, the riots over the war in Israel are not because Israel lost - it certainly hasn't - it's just because the win wasn't quick and easy as some people led the Israelis to believe. Still a victory, and a milestone in Israel's security.

 

Aisengard

Golden Member
Feb 25, 2005
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If this is true, the Lebanese government AND community turning against Hezbollah, and Nasrallah admitting he's now more wary of Israel because of their drastic response, then this is a huge step towards peace in that region, and even for the world.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
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Originally posted by: ntdz
He's not a very good leader if he didn't forsee it...you don't f*ck with Israel and expect to get away with it.

One expects their allies to protect them. Eventually the UN did do just that and Nasrallah was praised as a hero by his people.

Now we wait and see if the soldiers will ever return, if Hizbollah will ever disarm (yeah right) and if the UN's actions go beyond anything other than stopping Israel.
 

Buck Armstrong

Platinum Member
Dec 17, 2004
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Thats complete bullsh*t.

He's saying that now because he doesn't want the Lebanese to blame him and hold him responsible for the carnage and death which was his fault. He'd already seen what happened when Hamas did it, so he knew exactly what was coming; but he was following the orders of his evil master in Iran, who was willing to sacrifice Lebanon's innocents to deflect attention from G8 and proceedings against his nuclear designs.
 

kylebisme

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2000
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Nasrallah wanted a prisoner swap, he never wanted a war. Here is an article back from the day this started:

Hezbollah warns Israel over raids

The leader of Lebanon's militant Hezbollah has said two captured Israeli soldiers will only be returned through talks and a prisoner exchange.

Hassan Nasrallah said if Israel wanted to escalate the crisis his forces were ready for confrontation.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5173078.stm

Israel, on the other hand, obviously had other intentions.
 

fallenangel99

Golden Member
Aug 8, 2001
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Well looks like no swap is going to happen nor just an unconditional release.

So, yeah, with the help of Hezbollah (esp. since it stood up to Israel and seemed to unite the Arab world) there might be peace in the region. Funny how there are only 2 Islamic countries in the WORLD that have relations with Israel (Egypt and Jordan)... Nope, not even Saudi Arabia, the country we adore and smooch to.

Nasrallah seems like a level-headed guy (compared to wackos in the other parts of the world). If there is to be peace in teh region, I bet he is going to be involved too.

Also, support of the war in Israel has been waning too. 60-some % wanted Olmert to step down after the war ended. Things aren't looking great at home either.
 

borosp1

Senior member
Apr 12, 2003
492
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Originally posted by: TheSnowman
Nasrallah wanted a prisoner swap, he never wanted a war. Here is an article back from the day this started:

Hezbollah warns Israel over raids

The leader of Lebanon's militant Hezbollah has said two captured Israeli soldiers will only be returned through talks and a prisoner exchange.

Hassan Nasrallah said if Israel wanted to escalate the crisis his forces were ready for confrontation.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5173078.stm

Israel, on the other hand, obviously had other intentions.


Its not in Israel's interest to do a Prisoner swap.. This would just lead to more kidnapping of soldiers and citizens. One thing most developed democracys have learned is you cant negotiate with terrorist.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
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Originally posted by: ProfJohn
The truth is slowly starting to come out that Hezbollah actually lost this war, and lost it bad.

Besides lossing 500 fighters and many of its missiles they are lossing support in the Arab world. This is especially a problem for them in Lebanon where almost everyone is pissed off at Hezbollah for bringing such vast destruction on that country.

For all the people who complain that Israel uses "colective punishment" it may turn out this time that the tactic worked by turning the people of Lebanon against Hezbollah.


Hezbollah Didn't Win

Arab writers are beginning to lift the veil on what really happened in Lebanon.
http://opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110008847

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To ProfJohn,

I have no idea where you are coming up with what amounts to revisionist history. Even in Lebanon, Hezzbollah support has tripled and gone from 25% to 75%. In the broader Arab world I am guessing its far higher.

But you asked me to source the Seymour Hersh article when I did not write it. Those questions you can ask to Mr. Hersh himself.

But if you do care to ask who I consider more credable---Hersh or you----put it this way,
ProfJohn, you simply have no credability at all if you think that this recent mid-east flare up is a propaganda victory for Israel.
 

Aisengard

Golden Member
Feb 25, 2005
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So...you continue to provide no links, even when asked for them repeatedly, and you claim someone else has no credibility? :confused:
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
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The sources for the Hersh story belong to him---so respectfully I cannot even if I wanted to.---but who do you trust---somene with a very long and distinguished career---or ProfJohn's opinion---even if that opinion may agree with yours---but opinions don't matter here---we are dealing with facts.

But you can go to any set of colunmists and find opinions ranging all around the block---but when it comes to opinion polls, they are less diverse.---and less subject to political spin.

So ProfJohn comes up with one Arab writer who says its a loss---and 75% of the Lebanese people are blaming Israel.
 

kylebisme

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2000
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Originally posted by: borosp1
Originally posted by: TheSnowman
Nasrallah wanted a prisoner swap, he never wanted a war. Here is an article back from the day this started:

Hezbollah warns Israel over raids

The leader of Lebanon's militant Hezbollah has said two captured Israeli soldiers will only be returned through talks and a prisoner exchange.

Hassan Nasrallah said if Israel wanted to escalate the crisis his forces were ready for confrontation.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5173078.stm

Israel, on the other hand, obviously had other intentions.


Its not in Israel's interest to do a Prisoner swap.. This would just lead to more kidnapping of soldiers and citizens. One thing most developed democracys have learned is you cant negotiate with terrorist.
A Prisoner sawp, as Israel has done before, would have meant less dead Israelis. But again, Israel obviously wanted this war.
Originally posted by: Lemon law
But you asked me to source the Seymour Hersh article when I did not write it.
He is asking you to tell him specificly what Seymour Hersh article you are talking about.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
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The Seymour Hersh article that appaeared in the New Yorker in the last week or so.

To recap it had a number of thesies.

1. The Israelie incyursion into Lebanon was a preplaned joint Israelie US mission.---set to go at any convient incident.

2. The US State department and Condi Rice wanted it because they thought it would weaken Hezbollah and streathen the existing Lebanese government.

3. Cheney and co. wanted it because it would show a dry run of a potential US war with Iran.---with Terrian and tactic very similar.

4. The White House was prepared to spin it their way no matter what happened.

5. A good part of the latter part of the article concerns independent editorial fact checking.
 

ntdz

Diamond Member
Aug 5, 2004
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Originally posted by: Aimster
Originally posted by: ntdz
He's not a very good leader if he didn't forsee it...you don't f*ck with Israel and expect to get away with it.

He got away with it.

How many Hezbollah members got killed again, several hundred? Do you think he got away with it?
 

Aimster

Lifer
Jan 5, 2003
16,129
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100+ Israeli soldiers died as well. Israel didn't achieve their goal and Hezbollah is still in power.

Hezbollah is still operating and they still are receiving their funding from Iran and Syria. Jobs are lost. What will people do for money now? Maybe join Hezbollah? They need to feed their family.
Hezbollah is going around the streets of Lebanon and handing out cash (10,000 in bundles of 100s) to families who lost their homes. Hezbollah is financially capable of rebuilding Lebanon. Lebanon?s economy has halted, while Hezbollah?s ?economy? is growing.

The only thing lost in this conflict was civilians. Nobody gained a damn thing. Hezbollah still has thousands of rockets and enough small arms to do some serious damage to another Israel invasion. Israel still has their military.

Israel needs to get their command structure together. Israel also needs to realize that their arrogance got the best of them in this battle. Israel is used to facing small arms from Palestinians. They went into Lebanon and they found themselves up against an enemy with weapons that were deadly against their armor for the first time in many years.

Israel should never have asked for the UN to come in. The UN is not going to do a damn thing. Israel should have finished the job, but Israel is not prepared to face the reality that their army is not invincible. Israel should have occupied all of Southern Lebanon by now with every single one of their tanks. Sure they would have lost probably 300-500 men and additional 50-70 men a month for the first 12 months but it would have eliminated Hezbollah.

The second Israel soldiers were dying in large numbers, the poll numbers for the President dropped. Then the talks of finishing the mission turned into UN force.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
35,490
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Originally posted by: Aimster
100+ Israeli soldiers died as well. Israel didn't achieve their goal and Hezbollah is still in power.

Hezbollah is still operating and they still are receiving their funding from Iran and Syria. Jobs are lost. What will people do for money now? Maybe join Hezbollah? They need to feed their family.
Hezbollah is going around the streets of Lebanon and handing out cash (10,000 in bundles of 100s) to families who lost their homes. Hezbollah is financially capable of rebuilding Lebanon. Lebanon?s economy has halted, while Hezbollah?s ?economy? is growing.

The only thing lost in this conflict was civilians. Nobody gained a damn thing. Hezbollah still has thousands of rockets and enough small arms to do some serious damage to another Israel invasion. Israel still has their military.

Israel needs to get their command structure together. Israel also needs to realize that their arrogance got the best of them in this battle. Israel is used to facing small arms from Palestinians. They went into Lebanon and they found themselves up against an enemy with weapons that were deadly against their armor for the first time in many years.

Israel should never have asked for the UN to come in. The UN is not going to do a damn thing. Israel should have finished the job, but Israel is not prepared to face the reality that their army is not invincible. Israel should have occupied all of Southern Lebanon by now with every single one of their tanks. Sure they would have lost probably 300-500 men and additional 50-70 men a month for the first 12 months but it would have eliminated Hezbollah.

The second Israel soldiers were dying in large numbers, the poll numbers for the President dropped. Then the talks of finishing the mission turned into UN force.

:thumbsup:

Exactly. Hizbollah is stronger because Lebanon is in ruins and Iran is giving them the money to spread around rebuilding. Five to ten years from now it'll be a larger Hizbollah force in Lebanon and possible dity bombs or nuclear weapons from Iran.

Israel should have finished the job

This cannot ever be said enough. That is the reason for bad poll numbers in Israel. They failed to accomplish anything when Hizbollah should have been destroyed ? along with every last building in Lebanon if it came down to it.

What was established with the UN was yet another ?Peace For Our Time? in which we lose millions of lives tomorrow so we don?t have to deal with the threat today. It was cowardice then and it is cowardice today that drives appeasement. We fear the cost of fighting this upcoming war, but we haven?t begun to take hits.

Now that our opponents have the initiative, nuclear technology, and all the time in the world, we have killed many in our future generations. The UN will not stop this, they never have, and their actions this month have been entirely firm on their resolve to allow this threat to gain strength.

North Korea was a warning signal; we?ve learned nothing from it and those are the seeds you sow and eventually reap.
 

kobymu

Senior member
Mar 21, 2005
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Originally posted by: Aimster
Hezbollah is going around the streets of Lebanon and handing out cash (10,000 in bundles of 100s) to families who lost their homes.
Link?
Seems like more of a publicity stunt, to gain face among the Lebanese.

Hezbollah is financially capable of rebuilding Lebanon. Lebanon?s economy has halted, while Hezbollah?s ?economy? is growing.
I don't believe you said that with a straight face, do you know how much money it takes rebuild a country? Hah! Ridicules, even if Iran will start to pour some serious cache into Lebanon (we are talking here millions of $, highly unlikely), it would still take time, and a lot of it.

**********************
Breaking new
"4 blasts hit Turkey"
**********************
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
35,490
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Originally posted by: kobymu
Originally posted by: Aimster
Hezbollah is going around the streets of Lebanon and handing out cash (10,000 in bundles of 100s) to families who lost their homes.
Link?
Seems like more of a publicity stunt, to gain face among the Lebanese.

Hezbollah is financially capable of rebuilding Lebanon. Lebanon?s economy has halted, while Hezbollah?s ?economy? is growing.
I don't believe you said that with a straight face, do you know how much money it takes rebuild a country? Hah! Ridicules, even if Iran will start to pour some serious cache into Lebanon (we are talking here millions of $, highly unlikely), it would still take time, and a lot of it.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe...cd=1&q=Hezbollah+rebuild+homes&spell=1

Those enough links for you?