• We’re currently investigating an issue related to the forum theme and styling that is impacting page layout and visual formatting. The problem has been identified, and we are actively working on a resolution. There is no impact to user data or functionality, this is strictly a front-end display issue. We’ll post an update once the fix has been deployed. Thanks for your patience while we get this sorted.

Heres your chance, pick the DOW's bottom

It may peak below 8k but I called 8k which is as good a guess as anyway. With the economy as it is NOW I think things are oversold. If the economy keeps getting worse, though, it could go to 7k 6k, or lower, who really knows.
 
I was watching CNBC yesterday, and many "analysts" were demanding that the government jump in and start buying stocks to stop the slide... *sigh*

I'm hoping we hit bottom at 8000, but, if GE, who reports earnings before the open, misses expectations by a large margin, we may hit 7500 or lower.

 
Originally posted by: little elvis
I was watching CNBC yesterday, and many "analysts" were demanding that the government jump in and start buying stocks to stop the slide... *sigh*

I'm hoping we hit bottom at 8000, but, if GE, who reports earnings before the open, misses expectations by a large margin, we may hit 7500 or lower.
Click to expand...

GE reported in line with the "cut" forcast over an hour ago.
 
For the last six months I was predicting the real bottom of the market was 8,000. However, with the deterioration over the last few months, I am going to say there is a about a 50/50 chance at 6,000. More likely it's going to get to a little over 7,000. At that point investors will start to look at the hard assests of corporations and start to buy companies in position to take advantage of a recovery.
Of course, with the unbridled panic governments are considering measures that were unthinkable even a few months ago. So predicting the actual bottom, at this point, is akin to using a crystal ball.
 
I can't believe some want the government to buy in to prevent the slide, but I have heard it. Completely insane.
 
Originally posted by: little elvis
I was watching CNBC yesterday, and many "analysts" were demanding that the government jump in and start buying stocks to stop the slide... *sigh*

I'm hoping we hit bottom at 8000, but, if GE, who reports earnings before the open, misses expectations by a large margin, we may hit 7500 or lower.
Click to expand...

They will, they are expected to post 10-15% decline in earnings. I think the Dow will stop sliding around 7000ish. Stocking up on January 2010 puts on major financial institutions to hedge my regular positions.
 
Originally posted by: Skoorb
I can't believe some want the government to buy in to prevent the slide, but I have heard it. Completely insane.
Click to expand...

They were really looking forward to the company team building proactive vacation retreat... if the government doesn't step in they may not be able to go this year!! 😛
 
I don't know about the ultimate bottom but I'm just trying to catch what I think will be mother of all rallies short term before we bottom. I think we have the monster rally before it fails again and we drift lower again for a period of 6 months to a year churning. I think this bottom comes very slowly as people lose interest in the stock market and generation of people leave the market to never return as this drags out.
 
pick the Dow's bottom ? that sounds DIZGUSTING !

i think it will plateau at around 8000, out to May 2008.

then another case of nerves, and finding another plateau around 6000 in the 2010 time-frame.

if the SEC starts playing games, like rotating out old Dow components & then adding new
Dow components - e.g. another large defense contractor - that re-shuffling makes it hard
to find the bottom. much less pick it.
 
A few months ago, I said it'll bottom at 9000 (here). Clearly, I was wrong. At this point, we just have panic selling instead of trading on the basis of fundamentals (ie what can the stock market support based upon the number of people, inflation of prices, and profits of companies). Thus, it is very unpredictable. My gut reaction says ~7500 is the new low (for a close, not intraday since it hit 7887 intraday today). But, I can't base that on history, or on facts, or on anything.
 
Originally posted by: dullard
A few months ago, I said it'll bottom at 9000 (here). Clearly, I was wrong. At this point, we just have panic selling instead of trading on the basis of fundamentals (ie what can the stock market support based upon the number of people, inflation of prices, and profits of companies). Thus, it is very unpredictable. My gut reaction says ~7500 is the new low. But, I can't base that on history, or on facts, or on anything.
Click to expand...

Can we just ~ equate the 7882 today to the ~7500 and go up from here? Please?

This is just tearing my guts out here....I'm about to just give up and say fuck it.
 
Originally posted by: Engineer
Can we just ~ equate the 7882 today to the ~7500 and go up from here? Please?

This is just tearing my guts out here....I'm about to just give up and say fuck it.
Click to expand...
I edited the same time you posted. I meant to say 7500 on a close. But again, that is just a pure guess on my part. I'm ready to pull the trigger at any moment for the measly amount I have in my savings account and go all in on stocks. I just need some good news first.
 
"Iceland collapsed. It was more of a hedge fund than a country, with it?s 200,000 population supporting a massive leveraged position in financial markets via risk loving bankers and financiers. There were approximately 200,000 British depositors in accounts offered by Icelandic banks. Local authorities (municipalities) and charities were also big investors, exposed for more than £700 million. As a result, the government has frozen Icelandic-owned assets in the United Kingdom ? using terrorism legislation, naturally ? to provide the basis for a partial recovery of the losses likely to be incurred."
Click to expand...
http://londonbanker.blogspot.c...ulence-and-trends.html


This really sounds like a global run on banks by really, really, really rich people that are worried plain and simple about getting any of their money back right now (return of money, not return on money).

Technicals and historical retracement percentages may be meaningless temporarily, and it may only stop when all of these super rich people that want to get out get out (selling exhaustion).

The London Banker blog above said that Iceland basically went bankrupt, and England froze Icelandic Bank accounts, trying to get some of their citizens money back. Seems like a replay of what happened when Lehman went bankrupt and hedge funds couldn't get their money out of Lehman's arm in England.

 
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: dullard
A few months ago, I said it'll bottom at 9000 (here). Clearly, I was wrong. At this point, we just have panic selling instead of trading on the basis of fundamentals (ie what can the stock market support based upon the number of people, inflation of prices, and profits of companies). Thus, it is very unpredictable. My gut reaction says ~7500 is the new low. But, I can't base that on history, or on facts, or on anything.
Click to expand...

Can we just ~ equate the 7882 today to the ~7500 and go up from here? Please?

This is just tearing my guts out here....I'm about to just give up and say fuck it.
Click to expand...
No, Engineer, this is purification by fire. You will be better for it later. We all will.

I won't be the guy who sold my stocks at a 40% loss and then watched the market pump up and I'm held holding my junk. I won't be that guy even if it falls another 50% and never recovers, damn it, I won't!

 
A few months ago, when we started an informal office pool, I went with 6500. In hindsight, that was too optimistic, so in this poll I went with 2500.
 
Originally posted by: mshan
"Iceland collapsed. It was more of a hedge fund than a country, with it?s 200,000 population supporting a massive leveraged position in financial markets via risk loving bankers and financiers. There were approximately 200,000 British depositors in accounts offered by Icelandic banks. Local authorities (municipalities) and charities were also big investors, exposed for more than £700 million. As a result, the government has frozen Icelandic-owned assets in the United Kingdom ? using terrorism legislation, naturally ? to provide the basis for a partial recovery of the losses likely to be incurred."
Click to expand...
http://londonbanker.blogspot.c...ulence-and-trends.html


This really sounds like a global run on banks by really, really, really rich people that are worried plain and simple about getting any of their money back right now (return of money, not return on money).

Technicals and historical retracement percentages may be meaningless temporarily, and it may only stop when all of these super rich people that want to get out get out (selling exhaustion).

The London Banker blog above said that Iceland basically went bankrupt, and England froze Icelandic Bank accounts, trying to get some of their citizens money back. Seems like a replay of what happened when Lehman went bankrupt and hedge funds couldn't get their money out of Lehman's arm in England.
Click to expand...

from that blog
Finally, an optimistic note. I was reminded yesterday that the vast bulk of ?wealth? created during the Greenspan/Bernanke bubble years accrued to the very top percentiles of population ? with many in the OECD middle class and lower class either stagnating or getting poorer as they mired themselves in unsustainable debt. While opportunity and employment grew strongly in emerging countries, there too the elites gained disproportionately as income inequalities surged. The crash of global financial markets therefore will have disproportionate effect on the elites, impoverishing them to a far greater extent, although it will be felt throughout society as employment, pensions, investments and public services contract.

Once we hit bottom of this downturn, some years hence in all probability, we may experience a democratisation of wealth and opportunity like none seen since the end of World War II when education reforms and unionisation laid the groundwork for the rise of the American and OECD middle classes. Those who have lost economic and political power during the boom years, are likely to organise and retake authority within economic and political systems during the bust years. The collapse of concentrated wealth in Wall Street will spur more collaborative capital formation and investment throughout the economy. This could provide reorientation of economic progress toward more equitable, sustainable and democratic outcomes in coming generations. I hope so, it?s the only bright spot of the week.
Click to expand...

i really hope this is true. Too much of the wealth is at the very top. It needs to trickle down more to low to middle-middle class.
But money buys power and I'm afraid the people at the very top have too much power to stop this from happening.

And my guess is 5500. Pure speculation w/o a single drop of evidence to back it up.
 
Until the election happens and new administration is in place its unlikely there will be much trust in the US economy - and even then traders will still be wary. So that leaves us with 2-3 months of daily 100-200 point losses with minor gains in between...I'm pegging it at the lowest at 5500 intra-day - 6000 close.
 
I was wrong when I said it probably wouldn't hit 7K, that is a real possibility now. /shocked

7Kers can gloat now. :brokenheart:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

TRENDING THREADS

Back
Top