DucatiMonster696
Diamond Member
First off, the notional amount is meaningless. Second, nobody thinks that the government is going to bail them out, they just don't think it's going to fail.
I had some very interesting conversations at a major bank I worked at pre-crisis. Keep in mind, I wasn't some junior level financial analyst and I had access to the highest echelons. If you asked them they thought they knew it all. I was espousing that there was going to be a huge downturn in housing, they chuckled. I did convince them to double their wholesale funding plans from $2bn to $5bn, which I put in place in the summer of 2006 and which helped them out significantly through the credit crisis.
I'm going to go with what you are saying here and state that what you just described is just cementing what I said before. Their ego and gambling nature led them to believe that they could not fail, and those same tendencies in the face of the actual bailouts that did occur will lead them to repeating their mistakes and learning very little from those mistakes because they know that have, and that is leverage for bailouts in the future as that is the by-product of the moral hazard created by a system that government HAS to keep propped up and growing because it has become intertwined and over leveraged in self-interest with the entire process.
Last edited: