Help me win a soda from the guys at work! EDIT I WIN ***CONFIRMED***

[Occifer]

Edit: The answer was 1713!!!! I win!!!!

OK. Here is the deal. We have 30 drawers full of maps. One of the guys here had to count them all the other day, so he is holding a contest to see who can guess the closest amount. Winner gets a soda!

I counted the number of maps in four of the drawers. (not against the rules) here are the numbers for those four.

47
22
60
133

I also know for a fact that one, and only one of the drawers, is empty. How would you go about making an educated guess?
Do I take the average of these four and multiply by 29? What would you do? I think they will get suspicious if they see me over there counting all of the maps, so that is out of the question.

 

[Smolek]

 

[Occifer]

Originally posted by: Smolek
1965 would be your total (based on average)

Yes, I came to that conclusion already. But is there a better way to go about it?

Here are the guesses from the others. There are only two of us left. (btw. two of them are engineers, so I would really like to beat them!)

653
1973
1500
1800
480

 

[hollowman]

what do we get for telling you the answer?

i've counted it before and it was 1673.

 

[Occifer]

Originally posted by: hollowman
what do we get for telling you the answer?

i've counted it before and it was 1673.

If I had a paypal account I'd send you a quarter! Sodas are $.50

 

[edro]

Originally posted by: hollowman
what do we get for telling you the answer?

i've counted it before and it was 1673.

Yeah, it's 1673......I was with him.

 

[Occifer]

Originally posted by: edro13

Originally posted by: hollowman
what do we get for telling you the answer?

i've counted it before and it was 1673.

Yeah, it's 1673......I was with him.

Why didn't you come talk to me while you were here?

 

[Pastore]

Originally posted by: HighTechRedneck
OK. Here is the deal. We have 30 drawers full of maps. One of the guys here had to count them all the other day, so he is holding a contest to see who can guess the closest amount. Winner gets a soda!

I counted the number of maps in four of the drawers. (not against the rules) here are the numbers for those four.

47
22
60
133

I also know for a fact that one, and only one of the drawers, is empty. How would you go about making an educated guess?
Do I take the average of these four and multiply by 29? What would you do? I think they will get suspicious if they see me over there counting all of the maps, so that is out of the question.

How random were the 3 droors you sampled? Personally, I would say that the droor you counted with 133 is on the high end of the total sample... With the info you gave, I would probably say that on average there are about ~60 maps per droor times 26 (if one of them is empty, ill bet a few more are too) droors = 1560.... That would be my guess......

 

[deerslayer]

1965 sounds good to me

 

[Occifer]

Originally posted by: Beast1284

Originally posted by: HighTechRedneck
OK. Here is the deal. We have 30 drawers full of maps. One of the guys here had to count them all the other day, so he is holding a contest to see who can guess the closest amount. Winner gets a soda!

I counted the number of maps in four of the drawers. (not against the rules) here are the numbers for those four.

47
22
60
133

I also know for a fact that one, and only one of the drawers, is empty. How would you go about making an educated guess?
Do I take the average of these four and multiply by 29? What would you do? I think they will get suspicious if they see me over there counting all of the maps, so that is out of the question.

How random of a sampling is the 3 droors? Personally, I would say that the droor you counted with 133 is on the high end of the total sample... With the info you gave, I would probably say that on average there are about ~60 maps per droor times 26 (if one of them is empty, ill bet a few more are too) droors = 1560.... That would be my guess......

I just counted the top 4 drawers. And sorry if I worded it funny, but only one of the drawers is empty. So I guess it's really only 29 drawers.

 

[Pastore]

Originally posted by: HighTechRedneck

Originally posted by: Beast1284

Originally posted by: HighTechRedneck
OK. Here is the deal. We have 30 drawers full of maps. One of the guys here had to count them all the other day, so he is holding a contest to see who can guess the closest amount. Winner gets a soda!

I counted the number of maps in four of the drawers. (not against the rules) here are the numbers for those four.

47
22
60
133

I also know for a fact that one, and only one of the drawers, is empty. How would you go about making an educated guess?
Do I take the average of these four and multiply by 29? What would you do? I think they will get suspicious if they see me over there counting all of the maps, so that is out of the question.

How random of a sampling is the 3 droors? Personally, I would say that the droor you counted with 133 is on the high end of the total sample... With the info you gave, I would probably say that on average there are about ~60 maps per droor times 26 (if one of them is empty, ill bet a few more are too) droors = 1560.... That would be my guess......

I just counted the top 4 drawers. And sorry if I worded it funny, but only one of the drawers is empty. So I guess it's really only 29 drawers.

Well if anything I have learned in college Stats has served me correctly, the first 4 droors are not a very random sample, so I would def. say that 133 would be on the highend of the distribution of data... So since you know only one of them is empty, I would say just stick with the 60*29 = 1740, and hope for the best...

Want my stats professors email? hehe

 

[Occifer]

Originally posted by: Beast1284

Originally posted by: HighTechRedneck

Originally posted by: Beast1284

Originally posted by: HighTechRedneck
OK. Here is the deal. We have 30 drawers full of maps. One of the guys here had to count them all the other day, so he is holding a contest to see who can guess the closest amount. Winner gets a soda!

I counted the number of maps in four of the drawers. (not against the rules) here are the numbers for those four.

47
22
60
133

I also know for a fact that one, and only one of the drawers, is empty. How would you go about making an educated guess?
Do I take the average of these four and multiply by 29? What would you do? I think they will get suspicious if they see me over there counting all of the maps, so that is out of the question.

How random of a sampling is the 3 droors? Personally, I would say that the droor you counted with 133 is on the high end of the total sample... With the info you gave, I would probably say that on average there are about ~60 maps per droor times 26 (if one of them is empty, ill bet a few more are too) droors = 1560.... That would be my guess......

I just counted the top 4 drawers. And sorry if I worded it funny, but only one of the drawers is empty. So I guess it's really only 29 drawers.

Well if anything I have learned in college Stats has served me correctly, the first 4 droors are not a very random sample, so I would def. say that 133 would be on the highend of the distribution of data... So since you know only one of them is empty, I would say just stick with the 60*29 = 1740, and hope for the best...

Want my stats professors email? hehe

lol. you are right about the 4 not being a random sample. I think I'm gonna go with 1740! If I win you will get a 10 user rating from me! Thanks

 

[MrDingleDangle]

Originally posted by: edro13

Originally posted by: hollowman
what do we get for telling you the answer?

i've counted it before and it was 1673.

Yeah, it's 1673......I was with him.

i was hiding in the closet while they were doing this and saw that they skipped a drawer, and it wasnt the empty one, so i'm guessing 1720

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: MrDingleDangle

Originally posted by: edro13

Originally posted by: hollowman
what do we get for telling you the answer?

i've counted it before and it was 1673.

Yeah, it's 1673......I was with him.

i was hiding in the closet while they were doing this and saw that they skipped a drawer, and it wasnt the empty one, so i'm guessing 1720

you pervert!

 

[bizmark]

Originally posted by: HighTechRedneck

Originally posted by: Beast1284
Well if anything I have learned in college Stats has served me correctly, the first 4 droors are not a very random sample, so I would def. say that 133 would be on the highend of the distribution of data... So since you know only one of them is empty, I would say just stick with the 60*29 = 1740, and hope for the best...

Want my stats professors email? hehe

lol. you are right about the 4 not being a random sample. I think I'm gonna go with 1740! If I win you will get a 10 user rating from me! Thanks

It's just as random as picking any other 4 of the drawers. I'd go with the average * 30, *unless* you think there might be some pattern with the distribution of maps in the various drawers (i.e. the top drawers have more than the bottom drawers, or vice-versa).

 

[Cyberian]

It's just as random as picking any other 4 of the drawers. I'd go with the average * 30, *unless* you think there might be some pattern with the distribution of maps in the various drawers (i.e. the top drawers have more than the bottom drawers, or vice-versa).

Are they in any kind of order?
Alphabetical, date, location, etc.?

 

[Occifer]

Originally posted by: Cyberian

It's just as random as picking any other 4 of the drawers. I'd go with the average * 30, *unless* you think there might be some pattern with the distribution of maps in the various drawers (i.e. the top drawers have more than the bottom drawers, or vice-versa).

Are they in any kind of order?
Alphabetical, date, location, etc.?

Location actually. Quarter sections of Redmond, Oregon. I thought about this too but there are other variables involved here. Some we have in CAD files stored on the server that we do not have in the drawers. Some are extremely old as well, so disintegration may be a factor. I am sure some of the maps are in the wrong drawers. There are also duplicate copies and mylars for some.

 

[BillGates]

Does some poor guy have to actually go thru and count them all to determine who wins? Did you win?

 

[Occifer]

Originally posted by: BillGates
Does some poor guy have to actually go thru and count them all to determine who wins? Did you win?

He already went through and counted them all. That's how he came up with the contest. We are going to archive them to microfish, and then scan them and archive them. There is still one guy who hasn't put his guess in. I am thinking that I will find out tomorrow. Wish me luck!

 

[bizmark]

/me apologizes for what's about to occur

He's a high-tech..... redneck
Mayberry.... meets Star Trek
He's a bumpkin... but he's plugged in
He's a high-tech.... rrrrrreeed-neck.

 

[Pastore]

micro fish!!!!!!! lmfao!!!!! micro FICHE micro FICHE!!!! lol.....

 

[zsouthboy]

Ouch. too late for math tonight/

1740 sounds alright, personally i would aim slightly lower, 1680 maybe.... cool if you win though.

 

[zsouthboy]

Originally posted by: Beast1284
micro fish!!!!!!! lmfao!!!!! micro FICHE micro FICHE!!!! lol.....

hahah thats what i thought too rofl!

 

[b0mbrman]

If those are the other guesses and you think it's 1965, then you might as well guess 1972

The distrobution band's the thickest around 1965...might as well capture more thick band from the guy who guessed 1973

Originally posted by: HighTechRedneck

Originally posted by: Smolek
1965 would be your total (based on average)

Yes, I came to that conclusion already. But is there a better way to go about it?

Here are the guesses from the others. There are only two of us left. (btw. two of them are engineers, so I would really like to beat them!)

653
1973
1500
1800
480

 

[b0mbrman]

Is it just me or is the math off?

(47 + 22 + 60 + 133) / 4 * 29 = 1899.5 and not 1965